Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hardinsburg, KY
March 19, 2024 8:18 AM EDT (12:18 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:46 AM Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 1:42 PM Moonset 4:16 AM |
Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KLMK 191102 AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 702 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Updated Aviation Discussion
KEY MESSAGES
* Below freezing temperatures this morning.
* Dry and breezy today and tomorrow resulting in elevated fire weather danger.
* Next chance for precipitation Thursday night or Friday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Synopsis...Few changes are expected in the large-scale mid-level pattern during the short term period. The Rex blocking in the West will maintain split flow aloft with the northern stream jet oriented NW-SE across the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley as a Canadian shortwave trough quickly moves to the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will continue sagging southward into the central Gulf Coast as a ~995-mb low pressure tracks along southern Ontario, barely pushing a dry cold front through lower Ohio Valley tonight.
Model Evaluation/Confidence...Overall, there is above-average model agreement during the forecast period regarding the synoptic pattern evolution. Regarding sensible weather elements, lowered dewpoints by a few degrees to account for dry-air mixdown in the early afternoon; however, most of the guidance is indicating some offset during the second half of the afternoon from theta-e advection under SW winds.
Today...Temperatures have been steadily falling to the upper 20s behind the departing stratus layer, so lows this morning are on track to promote hard freeze conditions at sunrise based on weak winds and sufficiently dry air in place. Nighttime microphysics satellite also reveals some mid- to upper-level clouds approaching from the north, but timing of arrival and thickness of such layer should not block radiational cooling significantly to avoid sub- freezing values. The main headline for today continues to be the elevated fire weather conditions supported by gusty SW winds and low relative humidity in the afternoon. Low level mass response from the Ontario shortwave trough and associated surface low pressure will promote increasing PGF and a +40-knot low level jet dropping from the Great Lakes today. The resultant scattered gusty winds of 25-35 mph late this morning and during the afternoon will give way to min RH in the low to mid 20s with weak theta-e advection late in the afternoon and evening. As thoroughly explained in the previous discussion and after collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to keep messaging the current fire weather threat in an SPS instead of Red Flag Warning as max temperatures stay below 60 degrees and 10- hr fuels are relatively moist.
Tonight...Although winds will decrease after sunrise compared to the afternoon, the core of the LLJ will be transition over the region so that wind gusts around 15 mph will be common overnight. At the same time, a dry cold front will make its way across the southern Indiana and the Ohio river before sunrise but no precipitation is expected at the moment given the presence of dry air. Only changes for tonight are the increasing sky coverage towards dawn, slight wind shift to the west behind the front, and notable warmer lows due to mixing.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Wednesday - Wednesday Night...
The low pressure system associated with troughing over the eastern CONUS will begin to push NE at the beginning of the long term period. The cold front will move through the region on Wednesday, bringing a NW wind shift and breezy 25-30 mph wind gusts. Will be a dry air mix down day, mixing to about the 850mb level, and bringing RH into the 20-25% range. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. These conditions may lead to an elevated fire danger concern for Wednesday.
High pressure will build into the region Wednesday night. Light northeasterly winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the mid-upper 20s in northern Kentucky and southern Indiana and low 30s in central and southern Kentucky.
Thursday - Friday Night...
The upper level low over the SW CONUS will begin to propagate eastward on Wednesday. At the same time, a shortwave riding along the Hudson Bay low will move through the Great Lakes. Both troughs will impact the Ohio Valley at the same time, bringing increased precipitation chances. Thursday will remain dry, ahead of the approaching features. Clouds will increase from west to east and temperatures will remain near normal. Thursday night, deeper moisture will move into the region from the Gulf of Mexico and isentropic lift will lead to widespread rain chances. Light QPF is expected from this system, with a 50% chance of exceeding 0.1 inches of rainfall.
Saturday - Early Next Week...
As the troughs to the south and north phase and move east of the Ohio Valley, weak ridging and high pressure will build into the region. We will remain dry over the weekend with breezy winds and partly cloudy skies.
By Monday, high pressure will move off to the northeast allowing winds to veer to a southerly direction. Moisture will return to the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys at the beginning of next week. Models show deep troughing over the central CONUS which may lead to deep cyclogenesis by mid-week. Would expect to see some showers and storms from this system, which will be our next good chance for some substantial QPF. Model trends will be something to monitor over the coming days.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 701 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Impacts/Confidence: - High confidence in gusty SW winds of +25 knots today - High confidence in LLWS tonight
Discussion...Prevailing VFR conditions at all terminals for this TAF period given the influence of high pressure and dry airmass. Surface observations show weak winds blowing already from the SSW. Flow will be increasing after sunrise and gusting this afternoon between 20-25 knots due to strengthening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching LLJ. For tonight, the presence of the LLJ over the region will account for LLWS at all terminals with surface gusts likely in the 15-20 knot range. Finally, LLWS will diminish by 20/6-7Z but breezy conditions will probably linger into tomorrow.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 702 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Updated Aviation Discussion
KEY MESSAGES
* Below freezing temperatures this morning.
* Dry and breezy today and tomorrow resulting in elevated fire weather danger.
* Next chance for precipitation Thursday night or Friday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Synopsis...Few changes are expected in the large-scale mid-level pattern during the short term period. The Rex blocking in the West will maintain split flow aloft with the northern stream jet oriented NW-SE across the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley as a Canadian shortwave trough quickly moves to the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will continue sagging southward into the central Gulf Coast as a ~995-mb low pressure tracks along southern Ontario, barely pushing a dry cold front through lower Ohio Valley tonight.
Model Evaluation/Confidence...Overall, there is above-average model agreement during the forecast period regarding the synoptic pattern evolution. Regarding sensible weather elements, lowered dewpoints by a few degrees to account for dry-air mixdown in the early afternoon; however, most of the guidance is indicating some offset during the second half of the afternoon from theta-e advection under SW winds.
Today...Temperatures have been steadily falling to the upper 20s behind the departing stratus layer, so lows this morning are on track to promote hard freeze conditions at sunrise based on weak winds and sufficiently dry air in place. Nighttime microphysics satellite also reveals some mid- to upper-level clouds approaching from the north, but timing of arrival and thickness of such layer should not block radiational cooling significantly to avoid sub- freezing values. The main headline for today continues to be the elevated fire weather conditions supported by gusty SW winds and low relative humidity in the afternoon. Low level mass response from the Ontario shortwave trough and associated surface low pressure will promote increasing PGF and a +40-knot low level jet dropping from the Great Lakes today. The resultant scattered gusty winds of 25-35 mph late this morning and during the afternoon will give way to min RH in the low to mid 20s with weak theta-e advection late in the afternoon and evening. As thoroughly explained in the previous discussion and after collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to keep messaging the current fire weather threat in an SPS instead of Red Flag Warning as max temperatures stay below 60 degrees and 10- hr fuels are relatively moist.
Tonight...Although winds will decrease after sunrise compared to the afternoon, the core of the LLJ will be transition over the region so that wind gusts around 15 mph will be common overnight. At the same time, a dry cold front will make its way across the southern Indiana and the Ohio river before sunrise but no precipitation is expected at the moment given the presence of dry air. Only changes for tonight are the increasing sky coverage towards dawn, slight wind shift to the west behind the front, and notable warmer lows due to mixing.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Wednesday - Wednesday Night...
The low pressure system associated with troughing over the eastern CONUS will begin to push NE at the beginning of the long term period. The cold front will move through the region on Wednesday, bringing a NW wind shift and breezy 25-30 mph wind gusts. Will be a dry air mix down day, mixing to about the 850mb level, and bringing RH into the 20-25% range. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. These conditions may lead to an elevated fire danger concern for Wednesday.
High pressure will build into the region Wednesday night. Light northeasterly winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the mid-upper 20s in northern Kentucky and southern Indiana and low 30s in central and southern Kentucky.
Thursday - Friday Night...
The upper level low over the SW CONUS will begin to propagate eastward on Wednesday. At the same time, a shortwave riding along the Hudson Bay low will move through the Great Lakes. Both troughs will impact the Ohio Valley at the same time, bringing increased precipitation chances. Thursday will remain dry, ahead of the approaching features. Clouds will increase from west to east and temperatures will remain near normal. Thursday night, deeper moisture will move into the region from the Gulf of Mexico and isentropic lift will lead to widespread rain chances. Light QPF is expected from this system, with a 50% chance of exceeding 0.1 inches of rainfall.
Saturday - Early Next Week...
As the troughs to the south and north phase and move east of the Ohio Valley, weak ridging and high pressure will build into the region. We will remain dry over the weekend with breezy winds and partly cloudy skies.
By Monday, high pressure will move off to the northeast allowing winds to veer to a southerly direction. Moisture will return to the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys at the beginning of next week. Models show deep troughing over the central CONUS which may lead to deep cyclogenesis by mid-week. Would expect to see some showers and storms from this system, which will be our next good chance for some substantial QPF. Model trends will be something to monitor over the coming days.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 701 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Impacts/Confidence: - High confidence in gusty SW winds of +25 knots today - High confidence in LLWS tonight
Discussion...Prevailing VFR conditions at all terminals for this TAF period given the influence of high pressure and dry airmass. Surface observations show weak winds blowing already from the SSW. Flow will be increasing after sunrise and gusting this afternoon between 20-25 knots due to strengthening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching LLJ. For tonight, the presence of the LLJ over the region will account for LLWS at all terminals with surface gusts likely in the 15-20 knot range. Finally, LLWS will diminish by 20/6-7Z but breezy conditions will probably linger into tomorrow.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Louisville, KY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE