Wednesday, May24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Hardinsburg, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:56PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 11:18 PM EDT (03:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:52AMMoonset 6:40PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hardinsburg, KY
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location: 37.6, -86.48     debug

Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 242258
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
658 pm edt Wed may 24 2017

Updated forecast and aviation discussions...

Forecast update
Issued at 540 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
surface low now centered over central kentucky with warm front
boundary draped across the bluegrass region. Main concern has been
tornado threat as cluster of storms originating out of middle tn
have lifted northeast through south-central kentucky into portions
of the bluegrass and eastern kentucky. A stripe of better
instability thanks to earlier breaks in the clouds and enhanced
effective shear led to a few rotating storms which did produce some
large hail and damaging winds.

Believe the tornado threat is on the downward trend as we lose the
remaining instability this evening. However, the severe threat will
transition to a flash flooding as training convection slowly pivots
around the low pressure system over central kentucky. Earlier storms
across hart and larue counties produced 2-2.5" of rain in a short
period. The thunderstorms are efficient rain producers with pwats
running at 1.25".

Latest model guidance shows highest QPF axis through tomorrow
morning likely to setup across portions of southern indiana and
north central kentucky. Hrrr and WRF arw show convection pivoting
slowly across the area this evening and tonight. Additional amounts
of 1 to 2 inches not out of the question. Locally higher amounts
possible as well.

As a result, in coordination with iln and ind, will issue a flash
flood watch in effect now through mid morning Thursday for areas
mainly east northeast of louisville metro. Some of these areas
picked up quite a bit of rain last weekend and overall, flash flood
guidance values are low in these counties.

Updated products and graphics will out shortly.

Short term (now through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 pm edt Wed may 24 2017

Severe storms possible until early evening east of i-65...

closed upper low over the mid-mississippi valley is starting to fill
in, but a vort lobe lifting through the tennessee valley ahead of it
has really sharpened and may be taking over as the main player in
our weather. Surface reflection is a deepening 995mb low now lifting
through south-central kentucky. Axis of marginal instability running
just west of the i-75 corridor, with backed low-level winds,
continues to support a severe threat that includes the potential for
brief tornadoes. Thus we remain under a tornado watch roughly east
of a line from frankfort to greensburg to tompkinsville, though we
will spend the late afternoon hours trimming counties from the south
end of the watch as surface winds shift to nw.

Precip shield associated with the upper system will take a bit
longer to exit, with additional rainfall approaching an inch along
the i-65 corridor, though locally higher totals are quite likely in
the more convective activity to the east. Expect the pattern to slow
down due to some fujiwhara effect between the two upper lows, and we
will end up with a stacked system somewhere near cincinnati by
daybreak on Thursday. Pops tonight will taper from likely
along north of i-64 to a low chance across south-central kentucky.

Elongated north-south trofiness early on Thursday will support
scattered to numerous showers with the highest pops across the
bluegrass region, closer to the low pressure center. Precip chances
will taper down fairly sharply in the afternoon, and no mention of
thunder given a lack of instability. Clouds and precip will hold
temps in check, especially in the bluegrass where we may not get out
of the 60s. Expect dry conditions, gradual clearing, and seasonable
temps Thursday night as shortwave upper ridging takes over.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
expect unsettled weather for much of the holiday weekend, bookended
by dry and pleasant days on Friday and Monday. Shortwave ridging on
Friday will keep us dry for most of the day, but a weak disturbance
passing just to our north will warrant a slight chance pop for
southern indiana late in the day. A weak front will drop into the
ohio valley Friday night and hang up parallel to the flow aloft.

For most of memorial day weekend, the front will remain nearly
stationary over the ohio valley, and a series of disturbances will
interact with this front to spawn multiple rounds of showers and
storms. Best chances will be Sat night into Sun as an upper trof
digs into the plains, and the better dynamics aloft could allow for
a few stronger storms as well. Cold front looks to pass through
Sunday night, with a mid level dry slot bringing drier conditions
into memorial day.

Another chance for showers arrives Tuesday, with a few afternoon
thunderstorms possible as a shortwave embedded in the parent trough
rotates through our region.

Aviation ()
issued at 657 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
low pressure over north central kentucky will move into southwest
ohio overnight. Waves of showers and some thunderstorms will pivot
around this low, mainly impacting sdf and lex through this taf
period. Expect the steadiest rain at sdf and lex through late this
evening, then a lull, before rain bands pivot back over the area for
Thursday morning.

Ceilings overall will begin to lower as saturation and cooling take
effect. Good consensus in the model forecasts that ifr ceilings will
encompass much of central kentucky after midnight then linger
through Thursday morning. Improvement to MVFR thenVFR expected late
in the period Thursday afternoon.

Winds will become westerly and generally stay in that direction
through the period. As the pressure gradient tightens Thursday late
morning and afternoon, wind gusts 20 to 25 kts are likely.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... Flash flood watch through Thursday morning for inz077>079-092.

Ky... Flash flood watch through Thursday morning for kyz031>037-

Update... Zt
short term... ... ..Ras
long term... ... ... Ras
aviation... Zt

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Knox, KY34 mi20 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast56°F55°F99%997.7 hPa

Wind History from FTK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmW3W4N4NW5N7N7N5NW6NW11
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4CalmNE4NE3NE4NE5E7E5N3E5E5CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmNW5NW3NW4
2 days ago--NW5NW7NW8N8NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4E4NE6E5CalmNE4NE4S3SE3E5N3E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.