Sunday, December16, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Hardinsburg, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 5:27PM Sunday December 16, 2018 10:45 PM EST (03:45 UTC) Moonrise 1:50PMMoonset 1:14AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hardinsburg, KY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 37.6, -86.48     debug

Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 klmk 170154
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
854 pm est Sun dec 16 2018

Forecast update
Issued at 850 pm est Sun dec 16 2018
the cloud shield continues to progress eastward, but where afternoon
high temperatures were held down by the clouds... Mainly along and
east of i-65... And where clearer skies now are, have started to see
some pockets of dense fog form on area webcams and satellite
imagery. In addition, in the cloud shield, some pockets of very low
stratus are starting to make it to the surface, causing patchy dense
fog as well. Have updated the gridded forecast to account for these
areas and issued an sps earlier about the patchy dense fog.

Now the question is, how long will this fog persist? West winds are
trying to bring in some drier air. Latest satellite loop shows some
improvement in breckinridge and meade counties where we earlier had
some "foggy" colors. Seeing a little improvement in western hardin
county as well. The patch in oldham trimble and then south to
monroe cumberland metcalfe and points eastward I think has the best
chance to persist. May yet issue a dense fog advisory for those
areas, but will wait for more widespread observance of fog before
upgrading from the special weather statement.

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 305 pm est Sun dec 16 2018
the clearing line has slowly pushed east today and is now roughly
along the i-65 corridor. The louisville metro may still get an hour
or two of sunshine before setting this evening. Meanwhile, areas
over our eastern CWA will stay socked in clouds until later in the
evening with afternoon temps staying in the mid 40s. Locations along
and west of i-65 will likely still top out in the low 50s.

The biggest concern overnight will be the potential to fog,
especially in our south and east CWA where clouds have stuck around
through peak heating. The inability to mix some of the low level
moisture out, combined with good radiational cooling overnight once
clouds do clear should result in patchy areas of coverage. Don't
have enough confidence to go with widespread or dense mention at
this time as a couple of mitigating factors are hurting confidence.

First off, it looks like a steady W surface wind will hang around
overnight which could keep things just mixy enough from completely
tanking. 925mb winds also stay up in the 15-20 knot range. In
addition, the steady W wind will also bring dry advection as dew
points steadily fall into the low 30s by dawn on Monday. Can't
really rely on the crossover t method in this environment given the
dry advection component. For now, will just mention in the zones and
see how evening trends progress. Lows tonight mostly fall into the
30-35 degree range.

Dry NW flow aloft and surface high pressure will control the region
on Monday. Expect plenty of sunshine with highs in the upper 40s and
low 50s.

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 250 pm est Sun dec 16 2018
Monday night - Wednesday...

plentiful low level moisture as well as light winds and a stout
inversion under sfc high pressure should result in patchy fog over
the region tues morning. With lows in the upper 20s, there is a
small chance for freezing fog should fog get thick enough to
actually accrete ice. Right now will just mentioned patchy fog and
remain on the conservative side. The rest of the day tues should be
mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 40s.

An upper level ridge will pass through the region tues night with
flow turning more southerly behind the ridge on wed. This will
result in increased clouds and temps. Highs on Wed will range
through the 50s.

Thursday - Sunday...

a strong low pressure system will bring plentiful moisture to the
ohio valley Thu - Sat morning. Rain will spread from southwest to
northeast of the area Wed night into Thu morning as the low pressure
system deeps over the lower mississippi valley. Rains will continue
thu-fri with long range models varying in amounts. The most
aggressive with precip totals is the GFS as it wraps up the low
pressure system quite quickly and pushes northeast through ky. The
ecmwf isn't quite as strong with the system over ky but gfs
ensembles do show a similar solution as the op gfs. While soundings
remain quite warm through much of the event, they do show a chance
for some snow to mix in on the back side of the system Fri evening
and Fri night before precipitation comes to an end completely.

Expect high temps in the 50s for Thu and then dropping back into the
40s for highs into the weekend.

Aviation (00z TAF issuance)
updated at 620 pm est Sun dec 16 2018
back edge of cloud shield now is east of sdf bwg line, and has
slowed its eastward progress a little toward lex. Latest satellite
imagery showed a little enhancement on the western edge around kbry,
so slowed the timing for improvement at klex a little. Am a little
concerned with the area where the stratus shield lingered for most
of the day... In the sdf bwg corridor. We do have some drier air
coming in from the west, but the back edge of the cloud shield at
sunset tends to fog up again. Have introduced some lower vsby at
both sites and think lex could get back down to ifr lifr by daybreak
Monday. Think hnb had enough late day Sun to stay dry through the

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Ky... None.

Update... Rjs
short term... Bjs
long term... Ams
aviation... Rjs

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Knox, KY34 mi50 minWSW 410.00 miFair37°F37°F100%1022.4 hPa

Wind History from FTK (wind in knots)
1 day agoNE8NE8NE10--------NE7--NE7NE6NE5NE6NE7N7N5N8N3N6NW4W3W5NW6W4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (22,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.