Monday, September24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Hardinsburg, KY

Version 3.4
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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 7:38PM Monday September 24, 2018 2:23 AM EDT (06:23 UTC) Moonrise 6:51PMMoonset 5:57AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hardinsburg, KY
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location: 37.6, -86.48     debug

Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 240516
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
116 am edt Mon sep 24 2018

Updated aviation discussion...

Forecast update
Issued at 931 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
the forecast is in good shape. A large area of rain over the eastern
half of the lower mississippi valley will work its way into central
kentucky and southern indiana overnight. The most intense rainfall
rates are expected from the pre-dawn hours into mid-morning Monday
as a small upper disturbance crosses the commonwealth from southwest
to northeast. The morning commute could be a messy one.

No significant changes are needed at this time. Flash flood watch
continues for much of the region.

Issued at 748 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
patchy drizzle has developed across portions of central kentucky,
especially in the blue grass where visibility has occasionally
dropped below 2 miles. So went ahead and added patchy drizzle to the
forecast for the next several hours, until the next wave of more
significant rain moves in from the southwest.

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 300 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
a batch of rain is coming up out of southwest tn this hour. It
should creep into our southwest forecast area this evening. Further
development is expected across the rest of the region overnight as a
warm front slowly lifts north. Flash flood guidance is higher west
of i-65, but slow moving showers could over-achieve... As this
morning's rains have shown. Will issue a new flash flood watch for a
lot of the area, just leaving off part of southern indiana where
enough dry air helped to ease the first wave of rains this morning.

Monday, we will be in the warm sector of the broad system. Any
thunderstorms that form in this airmass will have the ability to
throw down higher rainfall totals real quick. Will have to watch for
some stronger cells as well, as soundings indicate some potential
for supercell development.

As for temperatures... That warm sector doesn't look to be summer
warm, with highs likely sticking to a little below normal for late

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 345 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
Tuesday night - Wednesday night
there will be a surface high pressure centered over new england and
a surface low near the colorado new mexico border with a cold
front stretching northeast through nebraska and wisconsin. Out ahead
of this front, southern flow will continue to bring moisture up the
mississippi river and ohio river valleys across the cwa. This will
continue to fuel the ongoing on and off rain showers.

The main focus during this period will be the advancing cold front
that will amplify the upper level flow dropping a trough south and
advancing it towards the cwa. This will shift the co-located jet
stream south as well, and place the CWA under the right entrance
region of a jet streak that could help with surface convergence.

Rainfall with more flooding issues will continue to be a main
concern with another 2-3 inches of areal average rainfall expected
through Thursday morning. Areas that have already seen flooding and
are saturated with earlier rainfall will easily flood again.

Tuesday night, 0-6 km shear could be over 40 knots located with cape
values just under 2,000 j kg. This could produce some strong
thunderstorms. The lowest levels look to have weak shear, and the
area covered by these conditions will likely be limited.

Wednesday morning, the front should be near southern indiana. This
will shift the south wind to the northwest lowering highs on
Wednesday to the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday night, the rain will move southeast out of the area with
high pressure building behind the front.

Thursday - Sunday
Thursday, skies should start clearing from the northwest. A warming
trend with sunny skies will continue through the weekend.

Temperatures by Sunday will break back into the 80s.

Aviation (06z TAF issuance)
issued at 115 am edt Mon sep 24 2018
poor flying conditions are expected overnight. An upper level
disturbance will move in from the southwest and across kentucky
overnight bringing another slug of moderate to heavy rainfall.

Ceilings are expected to remain quite low overnight and visibilities
will likely decrease toward dawn as well. Winds overnight will
generally be from the east to southeast with speeds of less than 8

Low clouds and showers are expected to continue through the day on
Monday. Some thunderstorms may develop and affect the terminals
later Monday afternoon and evening. Winds will remain out of the
southeast with speeds of 8-10 knots.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... Flash flood watch through Wednesday afternoon for inz078-079-084-

Ky... Flash flood watch through Wednesday afternoon for kyz023>043-

Update... ... .13
short term... Rjs
long term... .Kdw
aviation... ..Mj

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Knox, KY34 mi3.5 hrsENE 710.00 miOvercast63°F62°F100%1019 hPa

Wind History from FTK (wind in knots)
2 days agoS7S8S6S7S5S6S5S11----S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.