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FXUS63 KLMK 272336 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 736 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Updated Aviation Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and breezy this weekend, with gusts exceeding 30 mph out of the southwest at times today and Sunday.

* Rain chances return for Monday and again in the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong ridging over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold steady through tommorow. Two low pressure systems located over the upper Midwest and central Plains will ride along the ridging into southern Canada. As the first low pressure moves off into Canada, skies will begin to thin out over the Ohio Valley. Tight pressure gradients will keep winds up around 10-15mph in the overnight hours. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low-mid 60s.

On Sunday, skies will remain few to scattered with the ridge axis over the Appalachians. Tight pressure gradients will continue to allow breezy conditions on the order of 10-15mph. A 40-45kt LLJ will meander over the western half of the region in the morning. In the afternoon, atmospheric mixing up to ~800mb will allow momentum from this LLJ to mix down to the surface, resulting in wind gusts up to 25mph and some marginal dry air mix down. High temperatures are expected to be in the low-mid 80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Unsettled and occasionally wet weather looks likely through much of next week. The first potential wave of rain and perhaps a few storms will come Monday as a slow moving, weakening frontal boundary approaches from the west. Guidance over the last few days has slowed the progression of this boundary to where some portions of the region (east of I-65) may end up staying dry the majority of the daylight hours Monday. This activity will shift eastward Monday night into Tuesday, with rain likely lingering during the day Tuesday for portions of the region.

We should see a brief spell of dry weather before additional rounds of showers and some storms impact us from midweek and beyond. Models prog a slow moving frontal boundary to be draped from the Great Lakes region into the central Plains with various waves/perturbations riding along or near this boundary through this timeframe. We could initially see some glancing blows from the activity that develops west of the region, though forecast soundings show weak low/mid level capping that would not be favorable for convective development. The better chances for widespread precipitation in our neck of the woods likely won't come until the end of the week when the front finally advances eastward toward us.
Confidence in the timing details remain low, though, as run to run consistency amongst guidance and ensembles have been poor over the last few days, and the general trend has been to slow down the progression of the western/central CONUS trough to the east.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected through the current forecast period. The main item of interest for the current forecast period will be breezy southerly winds and LLWS tonight. A 50 kt LLJ core is expected to develop just west of the region later tonight, with local terminals expected to be on the eastern edge of the strongest flow aloft. Will advertise LLWS at all forecast sites from around midnight tonight until just after sunrise Sunday, tapering the magnitude somewhat at eastern terminals (LEX/RGA). Tomorrow, once the nighttime low-level temperature inversion breaks, stronger gusts are expected to once again mix down to the surface. Southerly sustained winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt are expected through Sunday afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.

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