Sunday, June24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Hardinsburg, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 9:11PM Sunday June 24, 2018 12:23 PM EDT (16:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:03PMMoonset 3:09AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hardinsburg, KY
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location: 37.6, -86.48     debug

Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 241325
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
925 am edt Sun jun 24 2018

Forecast update
Issued at 924 am edt Sun jun 24 2018
the showers and storms that moved across the region this morning
have exited to the east. The remainder of the day should be dry in
between systems. It still looks like a line of storms will approach
from the west late this afternoon into the early evening hours. The
latest model runs suggest these storms will be a bit slower to
weaken this evening than previous runs showed. SPC has expanded the
slight risk area across almost all of south central ky to account
for this. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but some
marginally severe hail will be possible.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 310 am edt Sun jun 24 2018
scattered showers and storms are ongoing early this morning as a
weak shortwave moves through the region. This activity will
gradually work eastward and should be out of the CWA shortly after
sunrise. Warm air between 800-700mb and subsidence behind the
shortwave should result dry conditions through most of the day.

Shortwave associated with MCS activity currently over the central
plains will have implications on our weather for late this afternoon
into the overnight hours. While the evolution of this convective
complex remains uncertain, outflow boundaries and or the MCV will
help to trigger new storm development later this morning and
afternoon as it moves eastard. By 21z Sunday, the hrrr arw nmm 3km
nam have the storms entering western ky and southern il. The
combination of deep layer shear (30-40kts of 0-6km) and instability
(3000-4000j kg mucape) will likely promote a line or broken lines of
strong to severe storms across western ky and southern il late
Sunday afternoon.

High-res models indicate a weakening trend as the storms approach
southern indiana and central kentucky around and after 00z due to
waning instability and increasing surface based cin. Should those
model solutions play out as advertised, areas generally west of i-65
would have the best shot of seeing some strong severe storms. Main
threats with these storms in our CWA would be gusty winds and small
hail. The current (06z) day 1 SPC outlook matches up well with this
line of thinking.

After 06z, we should see an increase in coverage of showers storms
as a 35-40kt LLJ develops. While severe weather isn't anticipated
with these storms, pwats will be quite high (+1.8") and training of
storms could lead to some localized flood issues.

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 308 am edt Sun jun 24 2018

Unsettled weather likely for the first half of the work week...

Heat and humidity return by late week...

quasi-stationary surface boundary will serve as a focus for renewed
convective development at the beginning of the forecast period
(Monday). Storms will likely exhibit a diurnally driven pattern
with the highest coverage intensity in the afternoon evening with a
diminishing trend overnight. Strong storms will be possible in the
afternoon, but primary concern will be torrential rainfall and gusty
winds. The boundary is forecast by much of the guidance to shift
northward Monday night which may push a lot of the convective focus
to our north northeast at least into Tuesday morning. Highs Monday
will range from the mid to upper 80s in most locations. Overnight
lows will likely remain in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

On Tuesday, we'll see a brief lull in the activity during the
morning hours. It appears that if we have substantial clearing in
the morning, we could become quite unstable during the
afternoon evening as the next weather feature approaches from the
west northwest. Scattered convective development is very likely in
the afternoon evening and will persist into the nighttime hours
Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Additional convection is likely
Wednesday afternoon especially in our east as the upper level wave
crosses the ohio valley. Some strong to severe storms can not be
ruled out. However, with precipitable water values hoovering near 2
inches, torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning
will be the main threats. Highs Tuesday Wednesday will be in the
mid-upper 80s again with overnight lows in the lower 70s.

For the later half of the week, strong signaling in the guidance
shows a strong mid-level ridge nosing into the region beginning
Thursday. Will likely to have to contend with some more convection
Thursday afternoon, especially if we have a perturbation rolling
down along the front of the approaching upper ridge axis. The ridge
axis looks to build into the area Friday and continuing into
Saturday. This will bring back a shot of heat with dewpoints
getting back into the lower 70s again. High temperature guidance is
likely going to exhibit a high bias here given that we'll have a wet
first half of the week and that we have lush vegetation in place.

Therefore readings in the upper 80s to the lower 90s are more
likely. The urban areas though could get into the lower-mid 90s
though. Those temperatures combined with the lower 70s dewpoints
will lead afternoon heat indices to get well into the upper 90s to
the lower 100s at times.

Aviation (12z TAF issuance)
issued at 631 am edt Sun jun 24 2018
some lingering showers and MVFR ceilings currently persist over the
ky bluegrass region. Those should push east of the region shortly
over the next couple of hours. Meanwhile, in areas of clearing to
the west, patchy fog has developed. This should burn off within the
next hour and give way toVFR conditions for the rest of the morning
and afternoon. Showers and storms look to impact the region this
evening into the overnight hours, though confidence in timing of
storms is low.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Ky... None.

Update... Eer
short term... Dm
long term... Mj
aviation... Dm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Knox, KY34 mi88 minW 410.00 miA Few Clouds80°F68°F69%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from FTK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW9SW11SW8SW8W7SW7NW5W5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW3CalmW4W5
2 days agoSW6SW7SW8S5SW7CalmSW5S6SW4CalmSW4SW6SW5SW6SW4CalmSE4SE3SE3S4S6SW8S7S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.