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FXUS63 KDDC 291904 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 204 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm chances (40-60%) return to central Kansas and a portion of southwest Kansas late Wednesday/early Thursday.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

WV imagery indicates a closed upper low lifting northeast across the Upper Midwest. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is shifting slowly east through eastern Kansas.

Tranquil conditions are expected during much of the period as the SREF indicates a zonal flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains with weak ridging aloft transitioning the Northern Plains.
Despite a slowly strengthening flow aloft, a lag in moisture return will hinder the presence of instability resulting in relatively dry conditions through Tuesday afternoon. Fairly seasonal temperatures are forecast again tonight as surface high pressure departs the region as lee side troughing develops in eastern Colorado, returning southerlies to western Kansas overnight. With the HRRR showing a 20-40% probability of temperatures falling below 55F in south central Kansas to a 90 to 100% probability in west central and far southwest Kansas, expect lows generally down into the mid/upper 40s(F) out west to the mid 50s(F) in south central Kansas. Prevailing south-southwesterlies ahead of an approaching cold front will enhance warm air advection into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures up into the upper teens(C) in central Kansas to near 25C in extreme southwest Kansas.
The HRRR paints a 10-20% probability of temperatures exceeding 85F in west central Kansas to a 90% probability of temperatures exceeding 90F in south central Kansas. With that, look for widespread afternoon highs in the 80s(F) for much of the area with the lower 90s(F) in south central Kansas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Thunderstorm chances (40-60%) continue for central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas early in the period as medium range ensembles (EPS) indicate an upper level shortwave trough swinging through the Northern Rockies Wednesday, sending an attendant cold front into western Kansas Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.
Ahead of the approaching system, prevailing southerlies will draw moisture up into eastern/central Kansas ahead of a developing low in southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico, increasing instability.
Despite a less than robust dynamic set up aloft with the bulk of a strong upper level jet remaining well off to the northwest, thunderstorm development will be possible sometime late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as H5 vort maxima begin to eject out of the Southern Rockies into the Western High Plains, interacting with steepening mid-level lapse rates ahead of a sharpening dryline extending southward into the Texas Panhandle. Right now, the best chance for thunderstorms remains across central Kansas where the NBM 4.1 indicates a 30-40% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding one-quarter of an inch by early Thursday morning. Drier conditions settle in by Friday as a dry air mass associated with surface high pressure spreads into western Kansas.

Above normal temperatures are forecast again Wednesday as south- southwesterlies quickly return behind a previously stalled frontal boundary lifting back north across southwest/south central Kansas by mid/late afternoon. The NBM 4.1 shows a 40-50% probability of temperatures exceeding 80F in vicinity of the I-70 corridor to a 80% probability of temperatures above 85F along the Oklahoma border.
A stronger cold front moving through Wednesday night/early Thursday morning will drop temperatures to more seasonal levels with the NBM 4.1 pointing to a 20-40% probability of temperatures exceeding 75F in west central Kansas to a 60-80% probability of temperatures exceeding 75F in south central Kansas Thursday afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Tuesday. Southwesterly winds around 10 to 20kt are expected to persist into early Tuesday as surface high pressure departs through the Central Plains while lee side troughing begins to develop in eastern Colorado.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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