Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:45 PM Moonrise 1:24 PM   Moonset 2:16 AM

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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 839 Pm Pdt Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - SW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves around 2 ft or less. Thu - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Thu night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Fri - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Fri night - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sat - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sat night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sun - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sun night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Mon - W wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Mon night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less.

PZZ500 839 Pm Pdt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
moderate to fresh northwesterly winds prevail as surface high pressure over the eastern pacific continues to weaken. Seas will also continue to abate through Thursday. By Friday the surface high strengthens and moves eastward, strengthening northwesterly breezes and building wave heights through the weekend and into next week.

FXUS63 KDDC 160712 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 212 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend into the weekend will see temperatures climbing well above normal.

- Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return to portions of central Kansas late in the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure transitioning east through the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, a closed upper low is situated across southern Arizona. Near the surface, a frontal boundary is pushing southeast across south central Kansas into northwest Oklahoma.

Relatively dry conditions are forecast today into tonight as the SREF indicates the upper level trough in the Northern Plains shifting eastward through the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes while a small surface high spreads east across the high plains of eastern Colorado and western Kansas through this afternoon. However, there is a very minimal chance (10%) for light rain across extreme southern portions of southwest/south central Kansas later this afternoon and evening as a secondary upper level trough in the Desert Southwest dislodges eastward through west Texas into southern Oklahoma. The HRRR shows just a 10% probability for 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch along the Oklahoma border in the late afternoon and evening time period.

Fairly seasonal temperatures are expected today as cooler air associated with a surface high spreads into southwest Kansas, holding H85 temperatures to the mid-teens(C). With the HRRR indicating a 80-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 75F in central Kansas to only a 20-40% probability in extreme southwest Kansas, look for highs generally in the 70s(F) this afternoon with increased cloud cover helping keep temperatures lower closer to the Oklahoma border. For tonight, the HRRR paints only a 10% probability of temperatures falling below 55F in south central Kansas with a 60-80% probability of temperatures falling below 50F in west central Kansas.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Tranquil conditions are forecast into the early part of the weekend as medium range ensembles indicate weak ridging aloft drifting east through the Desert Southwest Friday, and farther east into the Southern High Plains Saturday, all while a broad surface high spreads east out of the Northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return to portions of central Kansas late in the weekend as an upper level trough begins to dig southeast through the Pacific Northwest late Sunday, setting up an increasingly difluent westerly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Although a fair amount of uncertainty exists this far out regarding track/timing of this system, prevailing southerlies in wake of a departing surface high will draw ample moisture up into central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas ahead of a developing surface low projected in eastern Colorado, providing more than sufficient instability. This will support diurnally driven thunderstorm development late Sunday as H5 vort maxima eject out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains, interacting with an axis of low level convergence associated with a dryline. Again, the best chance (30-50%) for thunderstorms will be across central Kansas in vicinity of the I-70 corridor where the NBM paints a 40% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by late Sunday night.

A warming trend into the weekend is likely as prevailing southerlies through much of the period draw warmer air into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures a little above 20C Friday, to well up into the 20s(C)
Sunday. For Friday, the NBM shows a 80-90% probability of afternoon highs exceeding 80F with 60-80% probability of highs pushing above 90F Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites throughout the period. Light and variable winds are expected through late Thursday afternoon as surface high pressure slides east through the high plains of eastern Colorado and western Kansas.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Seaplane Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:36 AM PDT     2.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:45 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:22 AM PDT     5.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:55 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:21 PM PDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM PDT     6.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Seaplane Harbor, San Francisco Bay, California, Tide feet

Oyster Point 2.8 mi E
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:23 AM PDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:45 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:00 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:45 AM PDT     0.43 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:12 AM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:44 AM PDT     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:54 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:07 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:31 PM PDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:31 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Oyster Point 2.8 mi E, South San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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