Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montezuma, KS
March 19, 2024 1:55 AM CDT (06:55 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:42 AM Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 1:40 PM Moonset 4:13 AM |
Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 190415 AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1115 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm afternoon temperatures for Tuesday.
- A storm system on Wednesday will bring rain and storm potential for areas mainly south of highway 50.
- Cooler weather and more rain chances are possible this weekend.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
18z observations show a large trough in the eastern CONUS with northwest flow in the central and northern plains and a large trough in the western CONUS with an almost stationary closed upper low in southern California. At the surface a large 1030 mb surface high pressure is leading to sunny skies and light winds for much of the central plains.
Tonight as the surface high moves to the south and east an area of milder air will move in from the northwest as 850 mb temps will warm to around 12 (C) by sunrise. Surface winds will also switch to the southwest and increase through the night to 10-20 kts. This combination should keep the lower level better mixed and overnight lows should be milder as mid to upper 30s will be the result by sunrise Tuesday.
Tuesday a surface trough will develop in eastern Colorado and 850 mb temperatures will continue to warm to around 15-16 (C).
Winds in the boundary layer should also generally be west to southwest adding a downsloping effect and combining with plenty of sunshine I went more with NBM75th temperatures for highs which puts most of southwest Kansas in the mid to upper 70s.
Tuesday night as the surface low moves from southeast Colorado to north central Oklahoma a weak cold front should also move through and winds will start to switch to the northeast. With warm air aloft this should once again help to keep temperatures more mild as lows fall into the mid to upper 30s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Wednesday winds from the subtropical jet will start to push the upper low in Arizona into northeast New Mexico by the afternoon.
Ensemble cluster tracks in the 500 mb levels show the closed low becoming a trough and moving through the northern Texas panhandle. At the surface a surface low will develop in northeast New Mexico with a warm front boundary ending up somewhere between highway 50 and the Oklahoma border. The location of the warm front will be the main focus for shower and thunderstorm developing as the upper level trough moves into the central plains Wednesday afternoon. Severe weather chances look to stay limited as CAPE values will be under 500 J/kg and 0-6 km wind shear is 20 kts or less. Highest rainfall amounts will be for areas along the Oklahoma border as Euro ensembles have around 50% chance of at least 0.1 inch from Liberal to Medicine Lodge and GEFS ensembles are in the 60-80% range.
The next weather maker of interest will be this weekend. The subtropical jet will increase in speed along the southern CONUS and by Sunday afternoon the left exit region will set up in south central Kansas. The upper level lift combining with a cold front moving through western Kansas will give us increasing chances of rain during the afternoon with NBMv4.1 POPs reaching 30-50% by Sunday evening. Euro ensembles also have a strong 975 mb surface low in Nebraska and the GEFS ensembles have a 977 low in northeast Colorado so strong winds are also on the table for Sunday if this set up occurs.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late Tuesday afternoon. Southwesterly winds 5 to 15kt through daybreak are expected to turn northerly around 5 to 15kt behind a weak cold front pushing slowly south across western Kansas before stalling out closer to the Oklahoma border Tuesday afternoon.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1115 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm afternoon temperatures for Tuesday.
- A storm system on Wednesday will bring rain and storm potential for areas mainly south of highway 50.
- Cooler weather and more rain chances are possible this weekend.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
18z observations show a large trough in the eastern CONUS with northwest flow in the central and northern plains and a large trough in the western CONUS with an almost stationary closed upper low in southern California. At the surface a large 1030 mb surface high pressure is leading to sunny skies and light winds for much of the central plains.
Tonight as the surface high moves to the south and east an area of milder air will move in from the northwest as 850 mb temps will warm to around 12 (C) by sunrise. Surface winds will also switch to the southwest and increase through the night to 10-20 kts. This combination should keep the lower level better mixed and overnight lows should be milder as mid to upper 30s will be the result by sunrise Tuesday.
Tuesday a surface trough will develop in eastern Colorado and 850 mb temperatures will continue to warm to around 15-16 (C).
Winds in the boundary layer should also generally be west to southwest adding a downsloping effect and combining with plenty of sunshine I went more with NBM75th temperatures for highs which puts most of southwest Kansas in the mid to upper 70s.
Tuesday night as the surface low moves from southeast Colorado to north central Oklahoma a weak cold front should also move through and winds will start to switch to the northeast. With warm air aloft this should once again help to keep temperatures more mild as lows fall into the mid to upper 30s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Wednesday winds from the subtropical jet will start to push the upper low in Arizona into northeast New Mexico by the afternoon.
Ensemble cluster tracks in the 500 mb levels show the closed low becoming a trough and moving through the northern Texas panhandle. At the surface a surface low will develop in northeast New Mexico with a warm front boundary ending up somewhere between highway 50 and the Oklahoma border. The location of the warm front will be the main focus for shower and thunderstorm developing as the upper level trough moves into the central plains Wednesday afternoon. Severe weather chances look to stay limited as CAPE values will be under 500 J/kg and 0-6 km wind shear is 20 kts or less. Highest rainfall amounts will be for areas along the Oklahoma border as Euro ensembles have around 50% chance of at least 0.1 inch from Liberal to Medicine Lodge and GEFS ensembles are in the 60-80% range.
The next weather maker of interest will be this weekend. The subtropical jet will increase in speed along the southern CONUS and by Sunday afternoon the left exit region will set up in south central Kansas. The upper level lift combining with a cold front moving through western Kansas will give us increasing chances of rain during the afternoon with NBMv4.1 POPs reaching 30-50% by Sunday evening. Euro ensembles also have a strong 975 mb surface low in Nebraska and the GEFS ensembles have a 977 low in northeast Colorado so strong winds are also on the table for Sunday if this set up occurs.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late Tuesday afternoon. Southwesterly winds 5 to 15kt through daybreak are expected to turn northerly around 5 to 15kt behind a weak cold front pushing slowly south across western Kansas before stalling out closer to the Oklahoma border Tuesday afternoon.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS | 22 sm | 63 min | SSW 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 39°F | 21°F | 48% | 30.13 |
Dodge City, KS,
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