Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montezuma, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 7:52PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 6:41 PM CDT (23:41 UTC) Moonrise 5:28PMMoonset 6:11AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montezuma, KS
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location: 37.64, -100.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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Fxus63 kddc 192308
afdddc
area forecast discussion
national weather service dodge city ks
608 pm cdt Tue mar 19 2019

Updated aviation discussion...

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 343 pm cdt Tue mar 19 2019
the mid afternoon regional radar mosaic revealed a narrow axis of
light to moderate rain showers tied to the lower-mid tropospheric
frontal zone moving across kansas. These showers will push through
comanche and barber county by 00z with deep layer subsidence working
its way across the entire ddc CWA later this evening. The north-
northwest winds, which picked up to 14 to 18 knots sustained will
decrease down to below 11 knots after sunset. The clearing sky and
weakening wind should allow temperatures to bottom out in the mid to
upper 20s across far southwest and west central kansas with lower to
mid 30s for lows farther southeast toward south central kansas.

Thursday's weather will be fairly benign outside of a northwest
breeze, thanks to a remaining 900-800mb gradient in the wake of the
departing mid level trough axis. Once mixing increases by late
morning, winds should be in the 12 to 16 knot range with some
occasionally higher gusts. Persistent downslope momentum around
850mb will allow temperatures at this level to reach upper single
digits by late in the day, supporting surface temperatures late
afternoon in the 60 to 63f range.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 343 pm cdt Tue mar 19 2019
a very sharp mid-upper ridge axis will be moving across the western
great plains Thursday out ahead of the next fairly significant storm
system. This ridge axis will extend down into the lower troposphere
as well, so light winds will result across much of kansas most of
the day as temperatures warm into the lower 60s for afternoon highs.

South winds will start to increase out ahead of the approaching
upper low Thursday night, and by Friday increased mid and high cloud
will commence, along with the first round of showers. Far western
kansas should see the first rain showers sometime Friday early,
perhaps around sunrise. The eastward progression of the rain will be
fairly slow, but by midday the rain should reach the u283 corridor
from englewood to dodge to wakeeney.

Much of southwest kansas should remain in this warm conveyer belt
sector of this storm through early Saturday morning, but as the low
lifts quickly north, the mid level dry intrusion will push northeast
across western kansas clearing precipitation out by late morning or
so. As far as amounts go, we are still looking at rainfall totals
with this early weekend storm in the two to four-tenths of an inch
range for most locations. The ECMWF suggests a larger area of four-
tenths or more, though, so if this continues to hold and other
models start latching on to this, then QPF amounts will need to be
bumped to at or above a half inch for a fair portion of the forecast
area.

Since this early weekend storm system will be lifting almost due
north across the northern high plains (thanks to an upstream
kicker), there will be no low level cold advection in its wake. In
fact, we will actually see warmer temperatures on Saturday with
temperatures likely topping out in the mid 60s for most locations
(versus mid to upper 50s for most on Friday). Speaking of the
upstream kicker system moving into the west off the pacific, this
feature will push across the rockies late weekend into Monday. The
details of this storm are highly unclear with a lot of model
uncertainty, which is no surprise for this time of year at 120+
hours. The ECMWF and operational GFS deterministic models show
colder air interacting with the potential early next week storm
system, so temperatures at this period may need to be lowered over
what this current forecast has (especially for Monday).

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 605 pm cdt Tue mar 19 2019
there may be an few sprinkles or even an isolated light rain
shower north of dodge city and garden city between 00z and 06z
Wednesday as an upper level trough crosses northern kansas. Bufr
soundings indicating that some patchy of stratus will possible
late tonight. A scattered to broken deck of 1000 to 1500 ft agl
clouds may briefly occur between 09z ands 15z Wednesday. The
winds will be less than 10 knots and primarily from the northwest.

This is not favorable for dense fog development but some patchy
fog (4-5sm br) can not be completely ruled out around daybreak at
any of the four TAF sites. What stratus that does develop tonight
will give way to clear,VFR conditions by early Wednesday
morning. The light northwest winds will increase to near 15 knots
during the afternoon.

Preliminary point temps pops
Ddc 31 61 31 63 10 0 0 0
gck 28 61 29 62 0 0 0 0
eha 30 61 31 64 10 0 0 0
lbl 31 61 31 64 10 0 0 0
hys 29 61 30 61 0 0 0 0
p28 35 62 33 61 20 0 0 0

Ddc watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Umscheid
long term... Umscheid
aviation... Burgert


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dodge City, Dodge City Regional Airport, KS23 mi50 minN 11 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F33°F42%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from DDC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE13SE9SE9SE10SE7SE12SE10SE8SE11S7S5S8S9SW15W13W13W9N17
G24
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1 day agoE7E8E10NE6NE6E5E6E5E6N8N8N10N9N8NE11NE12NE7
G16
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SE11SE12
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SE17SE13
2 days agoN5N8NE8NE9NE9NE8NE7NE6E9NE9E9E10N6E8E9E10E8SE6SE5SE6SE6SE8SE8S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Dodge City, KS (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dodge City, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.