Monday, December10, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Montezuma, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:22PM Monday December 10, 2018 7:14 PM CST (01:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:26AMMoonset 8:30PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montezuma, KS
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location: 37.64, -100.36     debug

Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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Fxus63 kddc 102323
area forecast discussion
national weather service dodge city ks
523 pm cst Mon dec 10 2018

Updated aviation discussion...

Short term (this afternoon through Tuesday)
issued at 1100 am cst Mon dec 10 2018
extremely quiet at midday, with no clouds over kansas, or even
near kansas, on satellite imagery. With full (albeit weak) solar
insolation, and a gentle swly downslope component, temperatures
will have no trouble reaching several degrees above normal this
afternoon, in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Clear early tonight, followed by increasing cirrus. With the
increasing high clouds and a light S SW breeze persisting near
10 mph, radiational cooling will be weaker tonight. A few degrees
milder tonight compared to last night, with lows Tuesday morning
in the 20s.

Forecast soundings show broken to overcast cirrus on Tuesday.

Despite this, models warm 850 mb temperatures several degrees,
allowing for pleasantly mild (for mid december) highs in the 50s.

A decent swly downslope breeze component of 10-20 mph is
maintained through midday, so allowed for locations along the
oklahoma border to achieve lower 60s Tuesday afternoon. A vigorous
but dry shortwave will race into western nebraska Tuesday
afternoon, pushing an attendant weak cold front and nwly wind
shift into SW ks during the late afternoon.

Long term (Tuesday night through Monday)
issued at 120 pm cst Mon dec 10 2018

Intense north winds expected Thursday...

another mild day on Wednesday for december standards, with
afternoon temperatures in the 50s and well above normal. Continued
dry Wednesday, as flow aloft backs swly in advance of very intense
shortwave jet MAX diving into the great basin by 6 pm. Plenty of
sunshine will prevail, and this along with swly downslope
moderate winds of 10-20 mph, will encourage the mild afternoon

12z models have started to converge on solutions regarding the
extremely energetic shortwave jet stream arriving through Thursday
morning. Models are trending stronger, slower and further S sw,
as they usually do, as the jet energy on the backside of the
incoming trough is better sampled. These trends appear physically
reasonable, and were accepted into the grids forecast. 12z ecmwf
dives the energy into new mexico Wednesday night, and rapidly
closes off deepens a 547 dm upper low in SE new mexico 6 am
Thursday. The associated cold front will slam south through the
plains Wednesday night, followed by the strongest north winds
during the first half of the daylight hours Thursday. All models
continued to depict 850 mb winds of 55-65 mph during this time,
with the strongest winds focusing along the oklahoma border
nearest the deepening cyclone in texas. Gusts of this magnitude
are expected, and a high wind warning will likely be required.

Placed the strongest consmos wind guidance in the grids, which
gives gusts near 50 mph, but even that won't be enough. With the
energy diving further south, it follows that any rain snow of
significance will remain well south of SW ks. Retained low pops
and minimal qpf, based on the forecast builder model blend and gfs
solutions still generating some light snow, but 12z ecmwf
suggests most locations will remain dry. Am rather confident now
on a mostly dry solution for SW ks, especially since any
forthcoming model corrections would likely take the cyclone even
further south. Cooler Thursday, but cold air advection is actually
minimal behind this pacific system, and temperatures only retreat
back to normal, in the 40s.

Friday through Monday... A long stretch of dry, quiet uneventful
weather is expected, with mild afternoon temperatures considering
the time of year. Afternoon highs in the 50s will be commonplace.

It is noted that ECMWF bias correction was several degrees warmer
than the model blend for much of this period, and suspect many
southern locales will achieve lower 60s. Ridge axis behind the
intense departing closed cyclone will be along the spine of the
rockies Friday, phase out onto the plains Saturday, followed by
weak nebulous flow and no impacts through Monday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 517 pm cst Mon dec 10 2018
south to southwest winds will be at 10 knots or less overnight as
a surface boundary slowly moves across eastern colorado. On
Tuesday this surface boundary cold front will cross southwest
kansas during the afternoon as an upper level trough exits the
rockies and moves out into the central plains. Southwest winds
will increase to around 15 knots early in the day ahead of this
surface boundary and then shift to the west northwest as this
frontal boundary passes.VFR conditions can be expected overnight
and Tuesday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Ddc 26 57 26 54 0 0 0 0
gck 23 54 23 55 0 0 0 0
eha 30 60 29 58 0 0 0 0
lbl 25 59 25 55 0 0 0 0
hys 24 49 25 52 0 0 0 0
p28 26 59 29 54 0 0 0 0

Ddc watches warnings advisories

Short term... Turner
long term... Turner
aviation... Burgert

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dodge City, Dodge City Regional Airport, KS23 mi22 minSSW 710.00 miFair32°F12°F45%1025.5 hPa

Wind History from DDC (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN9N6N6W3W6W7NW7NW9W5NW7NW4NW5W7W6W6W6W9W8W5S4SW7SW6S7S7
1 day agoE4E5SE5SE4CalmCalmSW3W5SW7W7SW6W5NW10NW10N7N10N11N8--NW7N6CalmNW3NW3
2 days agoE5E5E5SE5SE5CalmCalmNW4N3N4NW3N4CalmN3NE4NE5E6E4CalmCalmNE4E4E3SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Dodge City, KS (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dodge City, KS
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.