Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 4:17 PM   Moonset 3:20 AM

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FXUS63 KDDC 191837 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 137 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Intense squall line with wind gusts of 60-100 mph potential is on track for this afternoon and evening.

- Residual moisture along with another shortwave could lead to a few stronger storms along the I-70 corridor Monday evening.

- Cooler temperatures mid week.

UPDATE
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

An 80-90 kt subtropical jet was located over the southern Rockies, with the exit region over the southern high plains.
Ahead of this feature lee troughing has allowed for a robust moisture return into central and southwest Kansas. Strong instability has develop with surface based CAPE from 3000 to 4000 j/kg. The dry line was sharp in the Texas Panhandle but less defined farther north. The dryline is surging eastward through the panhandle but bends back to the northwest into Colorado. Given a weak capping inversion along with elevated heating and jet dynamics, t-storms will develop west of the Kansas state line by 2 to 3 pm and then move into Kansas. Bulk shear values support supercells initially in far southwest Kansas. However, 0-1 km SRH values were only about 50 m2/s2 given the absence of a warm front in southwest Kansas that would result in backed winds and higher low level SRH. Very large hail is likely with the initial supercells but it is uncertain how long the cells with remain discrete. Given the strong instability and deep veering wind profile, very large to giant hail is possible through 5 pm. As the storms develop cold pools, there should be a transition to outflow domination, with damaging winds of 70-80+ mph and small hail over a large area.
These storms will be oriented north to south and sweeping eastward across southwest and into central Kansas during the evening.

Farther north, storm initiation may occur early this afternoon along I-70. Low level shear is stronger in this area so the tornado threat could be higher there.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

17Z obs and upper air analysis shows widespread low 60 dewpoints along and ahead of the dryline which is located in the far western Oklahoma panhandle. A cu field is starting to show up on satellite near Clayton, NM which will be monitored over the next couple of hours for storm initiation. CAMs have been consistent with storms forming and intensifying just west of the CO-KS border around 2 pm and quickly expanding and growing linear as they move eastward. HRRR wind gusts have been showing 60-80 kt wind potential at 10m starting near the K-25 corridor and growing eastward through the late afternoon and evening for the rest of southwest Kansas. Storm warnings will most likely reflect this with WEA activation for 80+ mph destructive wind threat. Another threat that will be monitored as the squall line matures east of highway 83 is QLCS tornadoes. 0-3 km bulk shear values are already SW at 35 kts east of highway 281 and are expected to increase with the intensification of the low level jet after 00Z. QLCS tornadoes will be very hard to have lead time on warnings as they are usually quick spin ups and along with the already destructive straight line wind threat regardless if the winds are rotating or straight they will be over 80 mph. The squall line should be out of DDC CWA by 03Z.

Lower confidence of a rogue supercell this evening is still in play mainly in NW Oklahoma around Woodward however this could be as far north as Coldwater-Medicine Lodge. If this happens with the low level jet, the moisture, and instability...this particular feature could have giant hail and supercell tornado potential.

Monday most of the day will be the atmosphere recharging as we should have a weak frontal boundary and southeast winds bringing in the return of some moisture. By the late afternoon and evening a shortwave trough is forecast to develop in northwest to north central Kansas and we could see another round of some strong to severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

With a busy short term, little time was spent on the long term, and NBM was accepted. Models remain consistent ejecting a significant piece of the Rockies trough into the northern plains Tuesday. The associated cold front will swing through SW KS Tuesday, with noticeably cooler, drier, and much more stable air arriving Tuesday through Wednesday on elevated north winds.
With moisture and instability being pushed away, this evolution will end any chance of rain/storms Tuesday through Wednesday.
NBM remains consistent with its previous runs and 00z MEX with Wednesday being the coolest day, with sunrise temperatures in the 40s, and pleasant afternoon temperatures in the 70s.
Afternoon temperatures will warm quickly back through the 80s Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Main weather event of interest will be an intense squall line forecast to develop in eastern Colorado early this afternoon and race across southwest Kansas. TEMPOs are included in the TAF and we are expecting the line of storms to be around GCK and LBL in the 22Z-00Z time frame, DDC and HYS in the 23-01Z time frame. Downburst winds of 60+ kts are possible in this line of storms (with some models showing as high as 75+kt gusts) as they move over the airport and take off and landing is not advised when the line is moving through. The line should be out of southwest Kansas by 03Z. Low clouds are forecast to develop for DDC and HYS between 10-14Z where we could see cloud ceilings drop to IFR flight category.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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