Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Inez, KY
March 19, 2024 5:03 AM EDT (09:03 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:32 AM Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 1:25 PM Moonset 4:01 AM |
Area Discussion for - Jackson, KY
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FXUS63 KJKL 190845 AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 445 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Gusty southwest winds transport will warmer air into the region today, but dewpoints will be slower to rise, leading to very low afternoon relative humidity and an enhanced Fire Weather threat.
- A passing dry cold front brings another day of Fire Weather concerns for Wednesday.
- Temperatures will average near to below normal at times through the weekend, before trending well above normal by early next week.
- A good chance of rain will return to the forecast Friday, with mainly dry weather for the second half of the weekend and into early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the southwest of eastern Kentucky with low pressure to the northeast. Between this, the pressure gradient has kept winds stirred through the area overnight. Combined with the stubborn clouds that are only now starting to clear out more quickly through much of the JKL CWA temperatures have been kept up more than they otherwise would be.
Given the quickening clearing, still expect most places to see mid 20s for lows by dawn. Currently, readings vary from the upper 20s in the southwest, with the first clearing, to the mid 30s under the thickest clouds. Meanwhile, dewpoints have fallen into the mid and upper teens most places. This is creating humidity values around 50 percent representing poor recovery from yesterday's drier afternoon values.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict the fast moving trough heading away from the region this morning - off to the east. This process leaves behind lower than normal 5h heights over this part of the state with swift northwest mid-level flow. Another trough then heads south through the Ohio Valley later tonight - pushed by the deep low shifting south of the Hudson Bay. This evolution speeds up the northwest flow aloft into Wednesday, but keeps the bulk of any energy well north of the state. Given the minuscule model spread, have again favored the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids with mainly just some terrain distinction added to the hourly temps and low temperatures tonight, but also favoring the 10th percentile of the NBM for this afternoon's dewpoints.
Sensible weather will feature a dry and breezy day with plenty of sunshine enabling a quick rise in temperatures from chilly morning lows. The gusty southwest winds will help contribute to further drying by midday as deep mixing taps into drier air aloft.
As a result, humidities are expected to fall to near 20 percent for much of the area this afternoon. This, combined with those increasing southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph and higher gusts - approaching 30 mph over the Bluegrass area - will lead to enhanced fire weather danger this afternoon and into the first part of the evening. Red Flag Warning criteria may be hit at many sites by late afternoon - depending on how quickly the fuels dry out.
Coordination later this morning may yet yield such a warning, but for now will run with the current SPS highlighting the fire weather dangers today.
More clouds and winds staying up tonight will mitigate the colder temperatures with only a small ridge to valley temperature split anticipated. Then on Wednesday warmer temperatures will help humidities fall to near 25 percent even as the dewpoints will be significantly higher than those of today. Again breezy conditions, this time on west to northwest winds, will mean some concern for fire weather, but to a much lesser extent than today's.
The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to add some small terrain distinctions into the low and hourly temperatures tonight. Did also favor the 10th percentile from the NBM for dewpoints this afternoon. PoPs were near zero from the NBM and kept there through Wednesday evening.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2024
The long term begins with a deeper elongated trough positioned from central Canada through New England and the Mid-Atlantic region.
Further southwest, a short wave trough will be moving over New Mexico. At the surface, high pressure will be nosing southeast into the Ohio Valley, with cooler low level northeasterly flow allowing for another chilly night across eastern Kentucky Wednesday night, as temperatures dip into the mid and upper 20s at most locations. The southern stream short wave will continue eastward through the end of the work week, with a surface low traveling along the Gulf Coast states and portions of the Deep South. Temperatures will remain somewhat below normal out ahead of this system across our area, with highs ranging from the upper 40s north of I-64, to the mid and upper 50s bordering Tennessee for Thursday. Meanwhile, deeper short wave energy will swing through the Great Lakes and portions of the Ohio Valley within the northern stream, allowing a cold front to push southeast across the region into the start of the weekend. Models have come into somewhat better agreement regarding PoPs, although the operational GFS does remain on the stronger- side of the ensemble envelope with the wave and its associated moisture return. Still, will maintain the blended PoPs, with values peaking at 50% on Friday. Winds will also veer more out of the southeast on Friday, helping to boost temperatures back to near normal, with highs in the 55 to 60 degree range.
Drier weather will return across the area for the second half of the weekend, with short wave ridging moving building in across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in response to a deep trough evolving across the West. Temperatures will average somewhat below normal once again for the first half of the weekend, but then rebound back to near normal by Sunday. By early next week, the trough will shift east, with moisture eventually returning out ahead of a cold front. Given the amplitude of this system and southeasterly low level flow out ahead of it, have allowed for a slower arrival of eventual slight chance PoPs towards the end of the period.
Temperatures will also be rebounding to well above normal, as highs return to well into the 60s by Monday.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2024
Mostly cloudy skies, with ceilings ranging from 4-6k feet agl, are holding on for another few hours, before scattering out from northwest to southeast in the pre-dawn hours, as a deep upper level disturbance exits. Once the lower clouds diminish, only some passing high ones will be seen through the rest of the period. Northwest winds of around 5 kts will continue through dawn. Winds will then back to the southwest during the first part of the morning. These will then increase to 12 to 17 kts, with gusts of 20 to 25 kts, by late morning - peaking during the afternoon hours. As they start to slacken at the sfc toward dusk winds will continue strong just off of the sfc creating some LLWS in the evening and overnight.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 445 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Gusty southwest winds transport will warmer air into the region today, but dewpoints will be slower to rise, leading to very low afternoon relative humidity and an enhanced Fire Weather threat.
- A passing dry cold front brings another day of Fire Weather concerns for Wednesday.
- Temperatures will average near to below normal at times through the weekend, before trending well above normal by early next week.
- A good chance of rain will return to the forecast Friday, with mainly dry weather for the second half of the weekend and into early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the southwest of eastern Kentucky with low pressure to the northeast. Between this, the pressure gradient has kept winds stirred through the area overnight. Combined with the stubborn clouds that are only now starting to clear out more quickly through much of the JKL CWA temperatures have been kept up more than they otherwise would be.
Given the quickening clearing, still expect most places to see mid 20s for lows by dawn. Currently, readings vary from the upper 20s in the southwest, with the first clearing, to the mid 30s under the thickest clouds. Meanwhile, dewpoints have fallen into the mid and upper teens most places. This is creating humidity values around 50 percent representing poor recovery from yesterday's drier afternoon values.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict the fast moving trough heading away from the region this morning - off to the east. This process leaves behind lower than normal 5h heights over this part of the state with swift northwest mid-level flow. Another trough then heads south through the Ohio Valley later tonight - pushed by the deep low shifting south of the Hudson Bay. This evolution speeds up the northwest flow aloft into Wednesday, but keeps the bulk of any energy well north of the state. Given the minuscule model spread, have again favored the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids with mainly just some terrain distinction added to the hourly temps and low temperatures tonight, but also favoring the 10th percentile of the NBM for this afternoon's dewpoints.
Sensible weather will feature a dry and breezy day with plenty of sunshine enabling a quick rise in temperatures from chilly morning lows. The gusty southwest winds will help contribute to further drying by midday as deep mixing taps into drier air aloft.
As a result, humidities are expected to fall to near 20 percent for much of the area this afternoon. This, combined with those increasing southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph and higher gusts - approaching 30 mph over the Bluegrass area - will lead to enhanced fire weather danger this afternoon and into the first part of the evening. Red Flag Warning criteria may be hit at many sites by late afternoon - depending on how quickly the fuels dry out.
Coordination later this morning may yet yield such a warning, but for now will run with the current SPS highlighting the fire weather dangers today.
More clouds and winds staying up tonight will mitigate the colder temperatures with only a small ridge to valley temperature split anticipated. Then on Wednesday warmer temperatures will help humidities fall to near 25 percent even as the dewpoints will be significantly higher than those of today. Again breezy conditions, this time on west to northwest winds, will mean some concern for fire weather, but to a much lesser extent than today's.
The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to add some small terrain distinctions into the low and hourly temperatures tonight. Did also favor the 10th percentile from the NBM for dewpoints this afternoon. PoPs were near zero from the NBM and kept there through Wednesday evening.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2024
The long term begins with a deeper elongated trough positioned from central Canada through New England and the Mid-Atlantic region.
Further southwest, a short wave trough will be moving over New Mexico. At the surface, high pressure will be nosing southeast into the Ohio Valley, with cooler low level northeasterly flow allowing for another chilly night across eastern Kentucky Wednesday night, as temperatures dip into the mid and upper 20s at most locations. The southern stream short wave will continue eastward through the end of the work week, with a surface low traveling along the Gulf Coast states and portions of the Deep South. Temperatures will remain somewhat below normal out ahead of this system across our area, with highs ranging from the upper 40s north of I-64, to the mid and upper 50s bordering Tennessee for Thursday. Meanwhile, deeper short wave energy will swing through the Great Lakes and portions of the Ohio Valley within the northern stream, allowing a cold front to push southeast across the region into the start of the weekend. Models have come into somewhat better agreement regarding PoPs, although the operational GFS does remain on the stronger- side of the ensemble envelope with the wave and its associated moisture return. Still, will maintain the blended PoPs, with values peaking at 50% on Friday. Winds will also veer more out of the southeast on Friday, helping to boost temperatures back to near normal, with highs in the 55 to 60 degree range.
Drier weather will return across the area for the second half of the weekend, with short wave ridging moving building in across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in response to a deep trough evolving across the West. Temperatures will average somewhat below normal once again for the first half of the weekend, but then rebound back to near normal by Sunday. By early next week, the trough will shift east, with moisture eventually returning out ahead of a cold front. Given the amplitude of this system and southeasterly low level flow out ahead of it, have allowed for a slower arrival of eventual slight chance PoPs towards the end of the period.
Temperatures will also be rebounding to well above normal, as highs return to well into the 60s by Monday.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2024
Mostly cloudy skies, with ceilings ranging from 4-6k feet agl, are holding on for another few hours, before scattering out from northwest to southeast in the pre-dawn hours, as a deep upper level disturbance exits. Once the lower clouds diminish, only some passing high ones will be seen through the rest of the period. Northwest winds of around 5 kts will continue through dawn. Winds will then back to the southwest during the first part of the morning. These will then increase to 12 to 17 kts, with gusts of 20 to 25 kts, by late morning - peaking during the afternoon hours. As they start to slacken at the sfc toward dusk winds will continue strong just off of the sfc creating some LLWS in the evening and overnight.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KSJS BIG SANDY RGNL,KY | 12 sm | 28 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 23°F | 69% | 30.10 |
Charleston, WV,
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