Saturday, August18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Inez, KY

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Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:20PM Saturday August 18, 2018 12:26 PM EDT (16:26 UTC) Moonrise 1:33PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Inez, KY
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location: 37.92, -82.66     debug

Area Discussion for - Jackson, KY
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Fxus63 kjkl 181616
area forecast discussion
national weather service jackson ky
1216 pm edt Sat aug 18 2018

Issued at 1216 pm edt Sat aug 18 2018
the majority of the steady showers have moved east out of
kentucky; however, there are some steady showers lingering in the
southeast. These should progress eastward out of the state in the
next hour or so. The main concern this afternoon will be
convection and thunderstorms building from central kentucky into
eastern kentucky due to breaks in the clouds allowing for diurnal
heating. Some convection has already begun to show up on radar,
moving in from the west. Used the consshort as a baseline for pops
into the evening since it looked to have a good handle on the
progression of the showers and development of the convection thus

Update issued at 1033 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
updated pops a touch based on current radar trends as well as hrrr
and NAM runs showing the band of showers progressing to the east.

The areas that will see the heaviest rainfall are in the far
east, from breathitt county to pike county, through the first part
of the afternoon. Convection looks to redevelop later this
afternoon into the evening, mainly in the cumberland basin and
bluegrass regions as seen by the latest run of the hrrr. There
have been no major issues with hydro yet, as guidance is well over
two inches and there have only been a couple areas that have seen
around an inch this morning. Will continue to monitor the
development of the convection and the potential for hydro concerns
as the day progresses.

Update issued at 649 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
a band of moderate to at times heavy rain showers continues to
move and expand across southeast kentucky this morning. Most
locations are seeing a quarter of an inch or less an hour with
embedded higher amounts possible. The latest information from the
spc mesoanalysis page shows the divergence aloft from the jet
streak and the vad wind profile at mrx shows a 25 knot low level
jet talked about in the short term discussion. Given this raised
pops in portions of the southeast into the categorical range
through the morning hours. Did keep the isolated mention of
thunder but much of this will probably be mostly be rain showers
through morning. Updated other grids to reflect the latest obs
and trends.

Short term (today through Sunday)
issued at 400 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
the morning surface analysis shows a surface boundary remains just
to the north along and near the ohio river this morning. We have
seen mainly isolated to scattered convection form along and south
of this boundary near the bluegrass and portions of central
kentucky. Meanwhile, there is a weaker area of low pressure in the
tennessee valley this morning. This feature along with increasing
850mb jet around 25 to 30 knots and nearby exit region of a 300mb
jet is beginning to enhance the convection moving north and east
out of portions of middle tennessee. Given this have increased
coverage in portions of southeast kentucky through the morning to
better portray this feature in the pop grids. Right now most of
this has been in the form of showers, but remains some chances of
an isolated storm and have kept this mentioned in the wx grids
through the morning. Given the deep layer moisture (pwats still
nearing 2 inches in some cases) will continue to monitor the flood
threat in this activity, but think this will remain isolated at
this time. Given this will hold off on flash flood watch and
continue to carry in the hwo.

Later today the previously mention front will continue to track
closer to eastern kentucky and the 500mb trough will continue to
provide height falls. This will bring a resurgence in pops across
the bluegrass and have tried to portray this in the grids.

However, keep most of the area in at least likely pops through
much of the day, before waning the pops through the late afternoon
and evening as the front dives across the area. What is left of
this boundary will linger into Sunday and give way to some showers
and thunderstorm potential in the far southeast. This activity
will wane through the afternoon as the boundary pushes into the
tennessee valley by Sunday evening.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday)
issued at 417 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
a weakening upper level trough will be slowly departing to our east
Sunday night, as another upper level trough over the central plains
heads east toward us. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is
expected to be laid out east west through tn. One of the few model
disagreements of significance during the period concerns
precipitation on Sunday night. The NAM continues to generate precip
over ky as the boundary lifts northward as a warm front, while the
gfs and ECMWF both hold precip to our south. Being in the later
portion of the NAM model run, preference is given to the GFS and
ecmwf, and nothing more than 20% pop is being used in Sunday night's
forecast at this point.

The next approaching upper level trough will support the development
of a surface low which will track northeast across the midwest on
Monday and Tuesday. This will initially send the warm front north of
our area, and put us into a feed of warm and moist air coming in
from the south and southwest. Coupled with upper level support from
the approaching trough, this will bring a return of showers and
thunderstorms. The activity is expected to peak on Tuesday with the
arrival of the upper trough axis and a cold front trailing from the
surface low passing to our north.

Precip should taper off Tuesday night and Wednesday as surface high
pressure behind the cold front builds in from the west with drier
air. In fact, forecast soundings show much more comfortable humidity
levels to finish out the work week, with dry air mix down resulting
in dew points in the 50s.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 659 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
we have seen a band of rain showers spread across portions of
southeast kentucky this morning as front close in closer to the
region and upper level wave moves across the region. Some of
these could be moderate to heavy at times through the morning, but
will generally keep vis unrestricted at TAF sites for now given
the isolated nature of the heavier activity. Do have most sites
either in MVFR or close through much of the day for cigs. However,
would expect sites to see varying restrictions due to rain
showers. We will see improvements to the CIGS and vis through the
late afternoon and evening as a front slowly pushes southward. The
winds through the TAF period will remain light, but you can't
rule out a higher gust with stronger thunderstorms.

Jkl watches warnings advisories

Update... Cgal
short term... Dj
long term... Hal
aviation... Dj

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV32 mi36 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F72°F85%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW7S9S7S5SW5SW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4S5SW5
1 day agoSW6W4SW4S5S5CalmSE4S8SW4S5SE4S4S4S4S4W4S6S5SW6SW6SW4S10S7S8
2 days ago33SW4S4CalmW3SW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jackson, KY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.