Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Inez, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:11PM Sunday February 17, 2019 11:41 PM EST (04:41 UTC) Moonrise 4:00PMMoonset 5:47AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Inez, KY
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location: 37.92, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, KY
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Fxus63 kjkl 180352
afdjkl
area forecast discussion
national weather service jackson ky
1052 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Update
Issued at 1052 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
the latest WSR-88D radar trends shows rain continues to push south
and east tonight, as an area of low pressure and front push north
and east respectively. Over the past 6 hours we have seen around
a 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain mainly in the southern and eastern
portions of the cwa, with some isolated higher amounts. Did some
slight adjustments to pops to better match the latest radar
trends. Then blended in the latest obs and trends to better bring
the grids into alignment with the current trends.

Update issued at 849 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
the latest scans of the WSR-88D radar show periods of light to
moderate rain or perhaps heavy rain at times this evening. The
best chances of precipitation will be in the far east and
southeast portions of kentucky including the lake cumberland
region. This was well portrayed in the grids, but made some minor
adjustments based on the short trends. This will bring another
0.25 inches of precipitation to the areas mentioned above, with
higher amounts possible in areas that see heavier rain. There have
been a few reports of high water this evening, but these have
been quite isolated based on calls made to local area dispatchers.

However, we will be monitoring this area closely, as another slug
of rain moves across this region. Only more minor adjustments
were made to the overall grids to match better with the latest obs
an trends.

Short term (this evening through Monday night)
issued at 347 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
the latest surface map features broad low pressure across north
central kentucky. SPC analysis reveals good moisture transport at
850 mb nosed right in across eastern kentucky, with ongoing shower
activity and even some scattered thunderstorms at times, as some
elevated instability remains in place across our region. Aloft,
troughing is found from the western great lakes down across the
west. Flatter and much faster flow occupies the middle and lower
mississippi valley.

A rainy first part of the short term will be on tap, as low
pressure gradually deepens and shifts off to our northeast. The
best 850 mb moisture transport will remain in place through early
this evening, before exiting. Will therefore hold onto thunder
chances across eastern kentucky over the next 3 hours or so. A
cold front will then move through tonight, with deeper moisture
gradually exiting off to the southeast. Another half to two thirds
of an inch of QPF or so is possible across portions of the
cumberland basin, where some locations have already seen an inch
of rainfall so far today. This will likely result in significant
rises along some of the larger creeks and rivers. Precipitation
will taper off from northwest to southeast overnight. Lows tonight
will range from the low to mid 30s.

High pressure will build in across the great lakes and ohio valley
regions through the rest of the period, resulting in drier and
colder weather across eastern kentucky. Have used more of the raw
blended guidance as a starting point early on, as post-frontal
low level clouds will be hard to shake on Monday. Highs will
remain in the 30s for most locations. The lower clouds should thin
out by Monday night, with lows down in the low to mid 20s by
early Tuesday morning.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 423 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
a strong upper level high pressure system over the bahamas will
remain stationary throughout the extended. Meanwhile, a upper level
low across the four corners states Tuesday morning will result in
deep troughing across the west. These two systems will keep a tight
pressure gradient across much of the central and southern conus,
producing deep SW to NE flow. As the western trough shifts eastward
throughout the day Tuesday, expect this to amplify heights across
the ohio valley. Heights will start to break down again by Wednesday
morning as the upper level low and associated troughing shift ne
into the northern plains, deepening the SW flow across the region.

This deep flow will remain in place as the upper level low slowly
dissolves by Wednesday night. Then the pattern nearly repeats itself.

Another upper level low and associated deep troughing will develop
over the SW u.S. Thursday, helping heights to build slightly across
the ohio valley and points to our se, while the upper level high
continues to sit across the bahamas. This low pressure system will
continue to deepen across the southwest through Friday before
progressing eastward. It's path will take it towards the ohio valley
where it will dissipate during the day Sunday. It should be noted
that other than some small timing placement and magnitude
differences, the models are generally in very good agreement
throughout the extended portion of the forecast.

As for sensible weather... It's going to be a wet one. Much of the
day Tuesday will be dry, and Thursday Friday may see some clearing
in the northern CWA with building heights in place during this time.

Otherwise, multiple systems are expected to develop across the south-
central and southwest u.S. And follow the NE trajectory into the
tennessee or ohio valleys. Deep SW flow will mean warm air
advection, with temperatures expected to remain fairly mild
throughout the period, even after the passage of any systems. The
only caveat will be Tuesday night, where temperatures may be able to
cool to near freezing across the northern portion of the CWA before
the precip moves in, with some mixed rain snow possible. Otherwise,
expect generally rainfall for the entirety of the extended. Several
stout low and upper level jets will also set up, aiding in deep
moisture advection into the region. This will interact with any
system to produce heavy rainfall.

While models are in good agreement aloft, and have a generally good
consensus with the surface patterns, there is still quite a few
differences in the timing, magnitude, and location of the precip as
it moves into the state. Both the ECMWF and GFS show multiple swaths
of high QPF moving across the state, which combined over a period of
time, will result in very high rainfall amounts falling on top of
already saturated and maxed out soils. Models will likely continue
to fluctuate throughout the extended until we get closer to onset,
so expect forecast totals to have some change as well. For instance
today, the upper level jet and best axis of the QPF with the first
system expected to impact the region on Tuesday night into Wednesday
has trended farther north and west. While heavy precip is still
expected across the cwa, the highest swath is now located just W and
sw. Wpc has placed our entire CWA located within the day 3 slight
risk for excessive rainfall, with a moderate risk located just to
our west across south-central kentucky. Followed suit with
neighboring offices, and stuck fairly close to the current wpc
guidance for QPF throughout the extended. As of now, storm total
rainfall for the duration of the extended forecast (Tuesday through
Sunday) is forecast between 3 and 7 inches, with highest amounts in
the southern cwa. Despite being over a 5 day period, if this amount
of rainfall materializes, we will inevitably see problems,
especially across the cumberland river valley. The local
hydrological outlook is still in place to cover this concern, with
flooding threats also mentioned in the hwo.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 637 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
a mix of ifr to lifr is the general story across the TAF sites to
begin the period. We continue to see rain stream across the region
amid a nearby frontal boundary and developing surface low
pressure. This is leading to periods of light to moderate rain
and this will in turn lead to periods of vis restrictions of MVFR
to ifr at the TAF sites. This area of low pressure and frontal
boundary will progress north and east through the evening and
night. This will bring and end to the rain later tonight and we
will start to see some improvements to MVFR toward dawn. Then we
will see lower clouds finally relent through the day on Monday,
withVFR possible through the afternoon. The winds will remain
generally light out of the southwest to begin the period. These
winds will veer to the west through the period, and we could see
some gusts of 15 knots by Monday afternoon.

Jkl watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... Dj
short term... Geogerian
long term... Jmw
aviation... Dj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV32 mi50 minW 7 G 1610.00 miOvercast41°F36°F82%1011.1 hPa

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Last 24hrNE8NE6NE7NE6NE5E4NE4CalmE9NE4N4E3E4E6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3Calm3W5W7
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jackson, KY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.