Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 3:58 AM   Moonset 4:48 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS63 KJKL 050530 AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 130 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm potential lasts through the next 7 days.

- Above normal temperatures are forecast through most of the next week. A cold front should pass late in the week and bring readings down to near or below normal.

UPDATE
Issued at 1140 PM EDT SAT MAY 4 2024

Just a quick update to the grids mainly to adjust PoPs lower but still keep a small chance of a thunderstorm in the eastern parts of the CWA through dawn. Did also include the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 845 PM EDT SAT MAY 4 2024

00Z sfc analysis shows low pressure to the northwest of Kentucky with some weak high pressure found nearby. This was not enough to prevent mainly unorganized showers and storms from developing through the area earlier in the afternoon and evening. These continue but their magnitude appears to be fading as we get further removed from peak heating and instability lessens. Even so will keep the threat of convection going into the night incorporating the latest radar and CAMs trends - but with just a slight chance for thunder after midnight. Currently, temperatures are generally from the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area.
Meanwhile, amid south winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are running in the low to mid 60s. Did also include the current obs and tendencies for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 537 PM EDT SAT MAY 4 2024

The latest upper level map features ridging aligned from eastern Canada through New England, Cape Hatteras, and then offshore. A deeper low is centered over the western part of Hudson Bay, with a trailing trough positioned southwest and then south through the Midwest. At the surface, low pressure is located near central Wisconsin, with a cold front laid out south southwest through the middle Mississippi Valley and then more southwest across the southern Plains. A weaker surface trough/quasi-stationary front branches east southeast across the Ohio Valley and then over the central Appalachians. Bouts of scattered to numerous convection, some producing locally heavy rainfall at times, and plenty of cloud cover kept temperatures in check today across eastern Kentucky. Readings range from the mid to upper 70s at most locations.

The models are in fairly good agreement aloft through the short term. The Hudson Bay low will gyre its way east with time, taking the more defined trough to its south southwest with it. Meanwhile, a short wave trough will emerge from the southern stream and deepen as it moves out of the Arklatex region by late Sunday. This feature will continue to trek over the middle Mississippi Valley by Sunday night. At the surface, a cold front will gradually move southeast across the Ohio Valley, eventually stalling near our area by end of the short term period.

Unsettled weather will remain in the forecast, although as we lose heating tonight, convection should gradually diminish in coverage. Depending on clearing trends, fog will develop in the valleys, becoming locally dense where enough clearing is coincident with locations that saw heavier rainfall today. Lows will average in the lower 60s. Most models show some 500 mb height rises during the day on Sunday, which should keep convective coverage more scattered and less organized in nature. Less clouds should allow temperatures to climb to the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Any activity should quickly die off Sunday evening, before PoPs ramp back up towards dawn from the southwest out ahead of the approaching short wave trough. Lows should be similar to tonight, generally lower 60s, with valley fog likely once again.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT SAT MAY 4 2024

The long term period continues to look wet. Prevailing large scale flow aloft will be persistent from the west southwest through at least Thursday, while low level flow is out of the southwest off the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern of warm/moist advection will favor precip whenever there are triggers/forcing mechanisms. A wavering frontal boundary will approach from the northwest at times, but being largely parallel to the upper level flow until near the end of the period it is not likely to make a forceful passage until then. This will leave us in a modestly humid air mass with surface dew points mainly in the lower to mid 60s. The main drivers for precip will be mid/upper level waves along with diurnal heating/destabilization cycles. The mid/upper level waves with the most agreement in the models are ones that would affect us on Monday, and also Wednesday night into Thursday, and these time frames contain the highest POP area wide at mainly 70%+.

There are some model discrepancies in the Thursday-Friday time frame concerning timing of an eventual cold frontal passage. In the 00Z and 12z deterministic/operational runs, the GFS is faster than the ECMWF with the passage of the primary cold front, and this results in lower forecast confidence mainly from Thursday onward. The current forecast is a model blend, but temperatures are likely to end up being either warmer or colder, depending on timing of cold fropa. It should be noted the 13z NBM trended a few degrees cooler for both Thursday night/Friday morning and Friday night/Saturday morning. Additionally, a faster fropa would result in the POP dropping off faster, and a slower passage would allow precip to linger longer.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2024

A few rain showers were ongoing at TAF issuance near SJS and in parts of Pike County and along the southwest VA border. These should continue to slowly dissipate and should be gone by 10 or 11Z today. SCT to BKN middle and low level clouds will persist through the night as well, but should scatter out by mid to late morning across the area. Isolated to scattered rain showers are expected to begin popping back by late morning, into the early afternoon on Sunday, as diurnal heating commences and instability increases. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, but all the activity should be scattered enough to warrant no mention in the TAFs just yet. Should this situation change, the necessary amendments will be made. Due to rainfall that occurred near many of the TAF sites in the past 18 to 20 hours, and with skies clearing off some overnight, conditions will continue to be favorable for fog formation across the area. In fact, SME has already IFR and LIFR VSBYs due to fog, while LOZ has seen low end MVFR conditions. Included tempo groups in each TAF to account for fog between 8 and 13Z. Any fog that forms should mix out quickly once the sun comes up. Any BKN clouds will also slowly scatter out as the sun rises, and should give way to persistent SCT coverage by 16 or 17Z Sunday. Winds will remain light and variable overnight, and should increase to 5 to 10kts out of the southwest by 15 or 16Z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Charleston, WV,