Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jetmore, KS
March 19, 2024 6:03 AM CDT (11:03 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:42 AM Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 1:37 PM Moonset 4:13 AM |
Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 191021 AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 521 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Seasonably warm temperatures are expected today.
- Rain and isolated thunderstorm chances (20-40%) return to south central and southern portions of southwest Kansas late Wednesday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains while a closed upper low remains anchored in the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.
Tranquil conditions are forecast during the period as the SREF indicates a weak west-northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains while much drier air continues to dominate the high plains of western Kansas. Above normal temperatures are expected today despite a weak cold front dropping slowly southward across western Kansas this afternoon. Prevailing southwesterlies ahead of the front will draw warmer air into the area ahead of the approaching front, pushing H85 temperatures well above 10C. Given the HRRR shows 60-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 70F across south central and much of southwest Kansas, look for afternoon highs generally up in the lower/mid 70s(F). Expect lows tonight down into the mid/upper 30s(F) for the most part, which the HRRR supports with a >90% probability of temperatures remaining above 32F.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Minimal rain chances (20-40%) return late Wednesday as medium range ensembles continue to indicate the closed upper low in the Desert Southwest beginning to edge eastward Tuesday night before pushing into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma late Wednesday. As the system approaches, a weak surface low is projected to develop generally across northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle with an attendant stalled frontal boundary extending eastward in vicinity of the KS/OK border. Meanwhile, a modest moisture return will nudge surface dewpoints up into the 40s(F) through western Oklahoma into south central and portions of southwest Kansas along the Oklahoma border, increasing instability somewhat where the NBM 4.1 shows a 50-70% probability of SBCAPE values exceeding 300 J/kg. Combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates, this will set the stage for shower and potential isolated thunderstorm development late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, as suggested by the majority of CAMs. The best chance for any appreciable rainfall remains to be across south central Kansas and a small portion of southwest Kansas closer to the Oklahoma border where the NBM 4.1 indicates a 20-30% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by late Wednesday night. Drier conditions in general are then expected through the end of the week as a rather weak zonal flow aloft sets up across the Western High Plains.
Fairly seasonal temperatures are forecast Wednesday as cooler air spreads south into western Kansas behind a projected secondary cold frontal passage, dropping H85 temperatures below 10C for much of the area. With the NBM 4.1 indicating a 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 60F, look for widespread afternoon highs in the 60s(F)
with near 70F possible closer to the Oklahoma border. Similar temperatures can be expected through the end of the week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. Southwesterly winds 5 to 15kt through mid/late morning are expected to turn northerly around 5 to 15kt behind a weak cold front pushing slowly south across western Kansas this afternoon before stalling out closer to the Oklahoma border by evening.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 521 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Seasonably warm temperatures are expected today.
- Rain and isolated thunderstorm chances (20-40%) return to south central and southern portions of southwest Kansas late Wednesday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains while a closed upper low remains anchored in the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.
Tranquil conditions are forecast during the period as the SREF indicates a weak west-northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains while much drier air continues to dominate the high plains of western Kansas. Above normal temperatures are expected today despite a weak cold front dropping slowly southward across western Kansas this afternoon. Prevailing southwesterlies ahead of the front will draw warmer air into the area ahead of the approaching front, pushing H85 temperatures well above 10C. Given the HRRR shows 60-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 70F across south central and much of southwest Kansas, look for afternoon highs generally up in the lower/mid 70s(F). Expect lows tonight down into the mid/upper 30s(F) for the most part, which the HRRR supports with a >90% probability of temperatures remaining above 32F.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Minimal rain chances (20-40%) return late Wednesday as medium range ensembles continue to indicate the closed upper low in the Desert Southwest beginning to edge eastward Tuesday night before pushing into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma late Wednesday. As the system approaches, a weak surface low is projected to develop generally across northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle with an attendant stalled frontal boundary extending eastward in vicinity of the KS/OK border. Meanwhile, a modest moisture return will nudge surface dewpoints up into the 40s(F) through western Oklahoma into south central and portions of southwest Kansas along the Oklahoma border, increasing instability somewhat where the NBM 4.1 shows a 50-70% probability of SBCAPE values exceeding 300 J/kg. Combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates, this will set the stage for shower and potential isolated thunderstorm development late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, as suggested by the majority of CAMs. The best chance for any appreciable rainfall remains to be across south central Kansas and a small portion of southwest Kansas closer to the Oklahoma border where the NBM 4.1 indicates a 20-30% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by late Wednesday night. Drier conditions in general are then expected through the end of the week as a rather weak zonal flow aloft sets up across the Western High Plains.
Fairly seasonal temperatures are forecast Wednesday as cooler air spreads south into western Kansas behind a projected secondary cold frontal passage, dropping H85 temperatures below 10C for much of the area. With the NBM 4.1 indicating a 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 60F, look for widespread afternoon highs in the 60s(F)
with near 70F possible closer to the Oklahoma border. Similar temperatures can be expected through the end of the week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. Southwesterly winds 5 to 15kt through mid/late morning are expected to turn northerly around 5 to 15kt behind a weak cold front pushing slowly south across western Kansas this afternoon before stalling out closer to the Oklahoma border by evening.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS | 19 sm | 71 min | SW 11 | 10 sm | Clear | 39°F | 27°F | 60% | 30.05 |
Dodge City, KS,
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