Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Birdseye, IN
March 18, 2024 11:52 PM EDT (03:52 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:51 AM Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 12:38 PM Moonset 3:35 AM |
Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 190058 AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 858 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* Unseasonably cool through Tuesday morning, with subfreezing temperatures likely again tonight.
* Dry and breezy on Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in increased fire danger.
* Next chance for precipitation Thursday night or Friday.
UPDATE
Issued at 858 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A 5 kft cloud deck is slowly clearing across the southwestern CWA, with the clearing line near Bowling Green. Clouds will linger a few more hours as they gradually scatter out from SW to NE. Temperatures have dipped into the low/mid 30s this evening, but the temperature drop will accelerate as skies clear and winds diminish a bit. Still looking at a hard freeze early Tuesday with lows in the 20s.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A shortwave trough axis is rotating into the region at this hour, bringing a nearly solid overcast mid level cloud deck, and even spitting out a few flurries across the area. Given the dry air in place at the surface, wouldn't expect anything more than that, so won't actually carry any measurable pops. Given the extensive cloud cover and steady cold advection component, temperatures are struggling today as expected. As a result, only expecting highs to peak in the upper 30s and low 4Temperatures are struggling under steady cool advection and increasing cloud cover ahead of a sharp shortwave trough axis approaching from the NW. Will likely back temps off another degree or two which will keep most everyone in the low 40s for highs. Some of our NE locations may only see the upper 30s. Outside of that, the only change that was made was to add some sprinkle/flurry mention across the NE half of the CWA 850-700 mb moisture is just deep enough, and seeing some upstream obs reporting light snow. So, will carry that mention through the afternoon and early evening.0s.
Another cold night expected as temperatures fall off well into the 20s for lows. Very dry air in place would allow for even colder temperatures, however surface winds are expected to stay up between 5 and 10 mph overnight, and switch to a SW component toward dawn. In addition, some high clouds may help keep temps from completely bottoming out. Still, the hard freeze could damage any sensitive early vegetation blooms. Given the growing season hasn't officially commenced, (per collaboration with ag partners) plan to mention this threat again in an SPS.
Dry NW flow aloft takes hold over our area behind the departing trough axis for tomorrow. At the surface, strong Canadian high pressure settles over the western Gulf Coast states, with a tight pressure gradient over our region between the surface high, and an eastern Canada surface low. Looks like the BL will mix fairly well into a 30-35 knot layer around 925-850 mb. As a result expect 30 to 40 mph winds to accompany sustained winds in the 20-25 mph range. In addition, mixing into a very dry low level atmosphere will likely allow for relative humidity values to bottom out. Given the gusty SW winds and very low RH values, there are some fire weather concerns.
The Wind/RH values would meet Red Flag Warning criteria pretty easily, however smaller fuels and fairly cool high temperatures are the sticking point for going as far as Red Flag Headlines. Talks with area forestry partners yielded that fuels weren't quite ready enough for a full headline, but that messaging an elevated fire danger would be welcome. So, will mention this threat as well in the SPS in collaboration with surrounding offices. The gusty gradient winds will also get a mention in the SPS as a stand alone threat.
Went above guidance for highs tomorrow given full sun, mixy SW flow, and the tendency for these types of events to overachieve.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Rex Block pattern over the western CONUS will begin breaking down by midweek as an upper level low over the Desert SW transitions into a shortwave trough embedded within stronger flow aloft. Locally, dry conditions will continue Wednesday into Thursday before the trough arrives late Thursday night into Friday. Isentropic lift begins to ramp up Thursday night as deeper moisture is drawn into the region.
Models indicate widespread showers developing overnight Thursday and continuing into Friday.
A weak cold front will drag drier air into the region Friday night into Saturday. Much of the weekend is looking to stay dry as high pressure drifts from the Northern Plains into the eastern CONUS.
Next chances of rain could arrive late Sunday into early next week as a trough digs into the western CONUS and ridging begins to amplify over the eastern CONUS, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft with embedded weak waves. The trough will eventually swing into the Plains and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by next Tuesday and Wednesday, likely bring widespread rain showers and some storms.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR weather continues. BKN/OVC 4-6 kft cloud deck will dissipate over the next 2-3 hours, leaving mainly clear skies overnight. Winds will continue to gradually diminish this evening and will be fairly light as they back tonight. Expect NW winds at 00z to become W by 04- 05z. SW winds will increase Tuesday morning, especially after sunrise. Winds will become gusty around 15z and beyond with gusts to 25-30 kt during the afternoon and evening hours.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 858 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* Unseasonably cool through Tuesday morning, with subfreezing temperatures likely again tonight.
* Dry and breezy on Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in increased fire danger.
* Next chance for precipitation Thursday night or Friday.
UPDATE
Issued at 858 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A 5 kft cloud deck is slowly clearing across the southwestern CWA, with the clearing line near Bowling Green. Clouds will linger a few more hours as they gradually scatter out from SW to NE. Temperatures have dipped into the low/mid 30s this evening, but the temperature drop will accelerate as skies clear and winds diminish a bit. Still looking at a hard freeze early Tuesday with lows in the 20s.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A shortwave trough axis is rotating into the region at this hour, bringing a nearly solid overcast mid level cloud deck, and even spitting out a few flurries across the area. Given the dry air in place at the surface, wouldn't expect anything more than that, so won't actually carry any measurable pops. Given the extensive cloud cover and steady cold advection component, temperatures are struggling today as expected. As a result, only expecting highs to peak in the upper 30s and low 4Temperatures are struggling under steady cool advection and increasing cloud cover ahead of a sharp shortwave trough axis approaching from the NW. Will likely back temps off another degree or two which will keep most everyone in the low 40s for highs. Some of our NE locations may only see the upper 30s. Outside of that, the only change that was made was to add some sprinkle/flurry mention across the NE half of the CWA 850-700 mb moisture is just deep enough, and seeing some upstream obs reporting light snow. So, will carry that mention through the afternoon and early evening.0s.
Another cold night expected as temperatures fall off well into the 20s for lows. Very dry air in place would allow for even colder temperatures, however surface winds are expected to stay up between 5 and 10 mph overnight, and switch to a SW component toward dawn. In addition, some high clouds may help keep temps from completely bottoming out. Still, the hard freeze could damage any sensitive early vegetation blooms. Given the growing season hasn't officially commenced, (per collaboration with ag partners) plan to mention this threat again in an SPS.
Dry NW flow aloft takes hold over our area behind the departing trough axis for tomorrow. At the surface, strong Canadian high pressure settles over the western Gulf Coast states, with a tight pressure gradient over our region between the surface high, and an eastern Canada surface low. Looks like the BL will mix fairly well into a 30-35 knot layer around 925-850 mb. As a result expect 30 to 40 mph winds to accompany sustained winds in the 20-25 mph range. In addition, mixing into a very dry low level atmosphere will likely allow for relative humidity values to bottom out. Given the gusty SW winds and very low RH values, there are some fire weather concerns.
The Wind/RH values would meet Red Flag Warning criteria pretty easily, however smaller fuels and fairly cool high temperatures are the sticking point for going as far as Red Flag Headlines. Talks with area forestry partners yielded that fuels weren't quite ready enough for a full headline, but that messaging an elevated fire danger would be welcome. So, will mention this threat as well in the SPS in collaboration with surrounding offices. The gusty gradient winds will also get a mention in the SPS as a stand alone threat.
Went above guidance for highs tomorrow given full sun, mixy SW flow, and the tendency for these types of events to overachieve.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Rex Block pattern over the western CONUS will begin breaking down by midweek as an upper level low over the Desert SW transitions into a shortwave trough embedded within stronger flow aloft. Locally, dry conditions will continue Wednesday into Thursday before the trough arrives late Thursday night into Friday. Isentropic lift begins to ramp up Thursday night as deeper moisture is drawn into the region.
Models indicate widespread showers developing overnight Thursday and continuing into Friday.
A weak cold front will drag drier air into the region Friday night into Saturday. Much of the weekend is looking to stay dry as high pressure drifts from the Northern Plains into the eastern CONUS.
Next chances of rain could arrive late Sunday into early next week as a trough digs into the western CONUS and ridging begins to amplify over the eastern CONUS, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft with embedded weak waves. The trough will eventually swing into the Plains and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by next Tuesday and Wednesday, likely bring widespread rain showers and some storms.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR weather continues. BKN/OVC 4-6 kft cloud deck will dissipate over the next 2-3 hours, leaving mainly clear skies overnight. Winds will continue to gradually diminish this evening and will be fairly light as they back tonight. Expect NW winds at 00z to become W by 04- 05z. SW winds will increase Tuesday morning, especially after sunrise. Winds will become gusty around 15z and beyond with gusts to 25-30 kt during the afternoon and evening hours.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KFRH FRENCH LICK MUNI,IN | 10 sm | 17 min | W 05G09 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 19°F | 59% | 30.19 | |
KHNB HUNTINGBURG,IN | 15 sm | 56 min | W 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 19°F | 59% | 30.23 |
Louisville, KY,
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