Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Birdseye, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 8:08PM Monday March 27, 2017 10:38 AM EDT (14:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:33AMMoonset 6:48PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Birdseye, IN
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location: 38.37, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 271430
afdlmk
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
1030 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Forecast update
Issued at 1025 am edt Mon mar 27 2017
updated the forecast to adjust pops and t-storm chances. The area
of showers/storms associated with a warm front will continue to move
northeast this morning with the front. A few t-storms this morning
have had pea size hail and that possibility will continue with this
first batch of convection.

As we get into the afternoon hours, the threat for severe weather
will increase. Moisture/temps will rise south of the warm front
especially over central ky and destabilization is expected. The
amount of destabilization from early-mid afternoon is a bit
uncertain given morning convection and some cloud cover, however,
still think that at least 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE is achievable over
most of the area... Up to 2000 j/kg in south central ky. So with
this instability and given 30-40 kt deep layer shear, severe storms
are certainly possible with the best timing between roughly mid
afternoon through midnight. Based on the latest guidance, storms
could start a bit early in the 2-4pm time frame west of i-65.

However, the main threat for most areas still looks to be 5pm-
midnight.

Severe wx threats remain the same. Damaging winds is primary. Large
hail and an isld tornado are possible as well. Will need to watch
left over boundaries from this morning's convection and the actual
warm front position as they may provide a focus for any isld spin
ups and enhancements of storms in general.

Issued at 700 am edt Mon mar 27 2017
warm advection band of showers and thunderstorms currently lifting
quickly northeast into western ky oriented NW to se. This activity
is on the nose of the 850 mb llj/strongest moisture transport.

Nudged precip/thunder arrival an hour or two earlier in the grids to
account for faster motion.

These showers and storms will likely push into the western cwa
around 12-13z. Severe weather is not likely with morning convection,
but brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning are possible.

Short term (now through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and evening...

today's mid-level feature of interest can be seen spinning in
eastern kansas on WV imagery early this morning. This progressive
wave is forecast to eject due east across the oh valley today into
tonight. Meanwhile, in the low levels, a surface low was analyzed
over eastern oklahoma early this morning, with a subtle surface
boundary extending eastward into the tn valley. Over NW arkansas by
12z, the surface low is forecast to move northeast to southern in by
late tonight. As this occurs, moisture return gradually ramps up in
the warm sector of the system. Surface dewpoints are forecast to
rise into the mid to upper 50s, with 60 dewpoints possible in the
sw forecast area.

The atmosphere begins to destabilize by mid to late morning. Most
areas will stay dry through 15z. Latest hi-res models do suggest
isolated to scattered warm advection showers/storms moving into the
forecast area after 14-15z. Plenty of cloud cover throughout the day
will also help to suppress surface heating a bit. The latest rap/gfs
soundings suggest MLCAPE values in the 500-1000 j/kg range, with the
higher values further to the south and west. This aligns well with
spc's day 1 outlook, which features a slight risk for central
ky/southern in and an enhanced risk across western ky/tn.

Deep layer shear is also sufficient for sustaining organized
convection, with 0-6 km values of 35-40 kts. Most likely storm modes
are multicells and linear segments. Some bowing linear segments will
be possible, and the main severe hazard is damaging winds. However,
given the proximity of the surface low as it tracks roughly along
the ohio river this evening, there is some potential for an isolated
tornado or two to spin up. Rap soundings show some backing of the
surface flow this evening, with effective SRH maxing out near 200-
250 m2/s2.

As far as timing, severe weather looks possible mainly from 5 pm -
midnight edt. Low pressure moves east of the area by 12z tue, and
some showers could linger into Tuesday morning east of i-65. Highs
will reach the low to mid 70s this afternoon, with lows in the mid
to upper 50s tonight. Tuesday will be cooler, but still a bit warmer
than normal, with highs in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 415 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
the middle portion of the week will feature quiet weather, with a
dry forecast Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. This is our
next brief window of upper level ridging before the next low
pressure system cycles through in this active flow pattern. Highs in
the mid 60s to low 70s Wednesday will warm into upper 60s to mid 70s
for Thursday.

Rain chances ramp up on Thursday as a deep upper trough approaches
the region, maxing out Thursday night into Friday morning. There is
at least a slight chance for storms during this period as well.

Decent agreement between 27.00z gfs/ecmwf on the cold front clearing
the forecast area Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday should be in the
mid to upper 60s, with cooler air filtering in behind the front.

Lows will drop into the 40s Saturday morning. Saturday is the
coolest day over the next week, with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Timing the next potential for precip is quite uncertain, but looks
to arrive by late Sunday or Monday. Sunday could end up dry, with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Aviation (12z TAF update)
Issued at 645 am edt Mon mar 27 2017
extensive mid-level cloud shield spreading across western kentucky
into central kentucky, but with calm winds there remains a narrow
window for reduced visibilities early this morning. Bwg was briefly
restricted earlier but recovered quickly, and may be able to
initializeVFR if there is enough of a mid-level ceiling.

Warm advection wing setting up over western tennessee will lift
northward and could spark showers by midday in the terminals. Bwg
will be the first to be impacted, while it may take until mid-
afternoon for lex. Will carry vcsh, but more confidence in a strato-
cu ceiling which should stayVFR.

A fairly solid band of showers and thunderstorms should swing
through during the evening, but still limited confidence in any
impacts to ceilings. Have kept ceilingsVFR, if only just barely,
but will go prevailing MVFR on visibilities. Could see brief drops
into ifr accompanied by gusty winds, but timing remains too
uncertain to be more pessimistic than vcts/cb.

Precip clears out after midnight tonight, but plenty of low-level
moisture hangs around and the gradient gets sloppy in the vicinity
of a trailing sfc trof. Strato-cu should keep vis from tanking
completely, but will go with some light fog and MVFR visibilities
toward Tue morning.

Lmk watches/warnings/advisories
In... None.

Ky... None.

Update... ... ... ... Ams/ebw
short term... ... ..Ebw
long term... ... ... Ebw
aviation... ... ... .Ras


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntingburg, IN15 mi43 minSSE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy53°F50°F89%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from HNB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S11SW10W11SW7SW12SW11SW13SW14
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W8W4CalmCalmCalmS3SE3SE4CalmCalmSE5CalmE3E6S4
1 day agoS11
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2 days agoS19
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.