Wednesday, June19, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Birdseye, IN

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 9:15PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 1:01 PM EDT (17:01 UTC) Moonrise 10:19PMMoonset 7:22AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Birdseye, IN
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location: 38.37, -86.71     debug

Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 191524 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service louisville ky
1124 am edt Wed jun 19 2019

Forecast update
Issued at 1058 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
radar and satellite indicates some much needed dry conditions across
southern indiana and central kentucky this morning. Over the last
half to hour we've had a couple of tiny, rogue cells fire up, but
they haven't persisted very long and have had very minimal impacts.

Unfortunately, the dry weather we're experiencing this morning will
have impacts on the weather we see later this afternoon and tonight.

While stratus has started to fill in the gaps of clearing we've seen
this morning, there should be enough breaks in the clouds to allow
low level lapse rates to gradually steepen and low level CIN erode
as we head into the afternoon, giving way to the development of
isolated to scattered storms. Deep layer shear will be rather weak,
so the severe threat will be limited with these storms. The bigger
threat will be heavy rainfall and potential for localized flooding
issues, especially in training convection.

A second round line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a
compact wave will develop across portions of eastern mo and western
il this afternoon, and push toward our region during the evening
hours. Coverage will be more widespread than the convection that
develops early this afternoon, and will have some severe potential
with it as deep layer shear increases ahead of the approaching wave.

Should the wave arrive quicker than forecast, it should be able to
take advantage of the destabilized atmosphere and pose a modest
hail wind threat. Otherwise, if the wave arrives as forecast
(evening to overnight), waning instability and increasing low-level
cin will gradually hamper severe chances as the storms progress
eastward. In general, the best chances for strong to severe storms
will be west of i-65, which is covered well by the day 1 SPC outlook.

One final note... The current flash flood watch runs through
tomorrow evening, but taking a look at some of the recent model
guidance, it appears the threat for heavy rain may end by tomorrow
morning. Will wait for all of the 12z guidance to come in before
making any adjustments, but its possible the end time of the watch
may be trimmed back if guidance continues to point in that

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 333 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
during this time period, a shortwave over the central u.S. Will
propagate through the longwave pattern with a low at the surface
tracking from mo into in. This keeps southern indiana and central
kentucky within the warm sector allowing for continued moist ssw
flow. Showers and storms will once again be on the table today as
diurnal instability produces sufficient buoyancy. There is a chance
of severe weather this afternoon evening with the main hazards being
damaging winds and possible hail. But the main threat continues to
be flash flood potential with any heavy rain that falls over already
saturated grounds. The flash flood watch is still in effect until
Thursday evening. According to short range convective models, the
best chance for storms will be late this afternoon into early
evening and again early Thursday morning. Another sticky day ahead
with MAX temps reaching into the low to mid 80s with dew points in
the low 70s. Min temperatures overnight into Thursday morning will
be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 1050 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
thu starts out with a departing surface low to our NE as a trough
axis aloft pushes across the oh valley. There may be scattered
lingering showers along with low clouds across our forecast area
before weather conditions improve Thu afternoon and night. Temps
will be cooler with afternoon highs only in the mid-upper 70s across
the northern bluegrass to lower 80s around the bwg area.

Fri will start dry. However, a shortwave is forecast to move E and
se through the flow aloft, igniting convection well to our N and w
fri afternoon or early evening. This occurs as a developing modest
to moderate low-level jet (25-30 kts) causes upward moisture
transport along and north of an associated warm front. Models
suggest this convection could grow upscale into a forward
propagating mesoscale convective system (mcs) Fri evening over il
and or in as it moves quickly SE into at least part of our forecast
area Fri night. Substantial instability to the S and W of the warm
front over the mid ms valley and a 30 kt low-level jet would fuel
this system as it translates se. With the potential for a developing
cold pool behind this system (models hint at this by stabilizing the
air mass behind the mcs), this system could end up producing some
wind damage in its path in our area, depending on whether the
boundary layer stays mixed (better chance for strong winds at the
surface) or becomes slightly decoupled from the flow aloft (less
chance for strong surface winds). Something to keep an eye on.

By sat, the warm front should eventually lift across our forecast
area as a ridge aloft begins to build across the region. The air
mass in our area or just to our west could become strongly unstable
in the afternoon, with model soundings show a subsidence inversion
(cap) along with minimal forcing. The question is how fast does the
warm front lift. If is becomes anchored slower to move due to fri
night's convection and any outflow boundaries, then scattered strong
storms could occur sat. If it lifts NE faster with subsidence in its
wake, then a drier day would be in store. It will become quite warm
and humid Sat afternoon with highs well up in 80s (close to 90 in
our western counties).

The ridge aloft builds east on Sun so there should be no more than
isolated diurnal storms with again very warm afternoon temps and
high humidity. Then another significant trough axis is progged to
move toward us early next week from the plains, with the potential
for additional strong storms across the lower oh valley in the late
mon and or Tue timeframe.

Aviation (12z TAF issuance)
updated at 555 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
mid clouds from earlier convection were enough to keep any
widespread low stratus from forming, but current satellite does show
scattered MVFR stratus advecting through the region with some ifr
cigs near ekx and lex. At this point, expect only lex to see tempo
MVFR CIGS due to stratus this morning. Regional observations have
also seen patchy dense fog, but a mixy boundary layer should keep
dense fog isolated and away from TAF sites. A low pressure system
will approach from the west today bringing more showers and
thunderstorms through the area. Expect heavy rainfall and MVFR cigs
vis with these cells. Southwest winds today will range from 10 to
15kts. Best chance of storms will be this afternoon into early
evening. Models indicate another round possible early Thursday

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... Flash flood watch through Thursday evening for inz076>079-083-

Ky... Flash flood watch through Thursday evening for kyz025-029>043-

Update... Dm
short term... Cg
long term... Twf
aviation... Cg

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntingburg, IN15 mi65 minSSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F72°F74%1008 hPa

Wind History from HNB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS7S3S6SW5S43CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE3SE5S6S7W5SW6SW11
1 day agoS6S8S6NW14
2 days agoSW10SW10SW12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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