Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Birdseye, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:31PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 10:17 PM EST (03:17 UTC) Moonrise 2:51PMMoonset 3:15AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Birdseye, IN
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location: 38.37, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 182320
afdlmk
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
620 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Updated aviation discussion...

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 250 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
sfc high pressure and upper level ridging will move off the east
tonight resulting in mostly clear skies and dry conditions. Low
temps should range through the lower 30s.

A weak southerly return flow will begin early Wednesday morning.

This will result in mild conditions for tomorrow with high temps in
the mid 50s to around 60. Clouds will increase from the southwest
late in the day ahead of the next weather system.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 323 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Complex storm system to affect our area Thu and fri...

Wednesday night...

a deep SW flow regime will be in place over much of the eastern
conus ahead of an amplified central CONUS trough. Expect increasing
cloud cover with light rain chances gradually overspreading the
region on an isentropic lift component evident on 290-300 k theta
surfaces. Everyone won't see rain Wednesday night, but chances will
be steadily increasing. Temps will bottom out in the low to mid 40s.

Thursday - Friday...

strong and deep low pressure will ride up the appalachian spine into
the eastern great lakes through the end of the work week. As this
occurs, deeper moisture should wrap into the system both from the
gulf and atlantic. We'll see periods of light to moderate rain, with
a few pockets of heavier rain also possible. Will continue with high
pops during this time frame with overall QPF ranging from 0.5 to
1.5". The highest amounts should fall over the eastern CWA near the
i-75 corridor.

Although we do expect mostly rain, just enough cold air may be
introduced on Friday to see a rain snow mix of brief change to snow.

Even in that scenario, surface temps will stay above freezing, so
any snow will be falling on an already wet and above freezing
surface so doubt any accums would materialize. In addition, the
deepest moisture is pulling out of the area by the time the colder
air arrives so any change in p-type should be mostly light in nature
by that time. Overall, this system has trended east and weaker from
previous runs.

With the weaker expected system, expected wind nnw winds gusts on
Friday also aren't as impressive as they were. It will still be
gusty, but most gusts appear to be more in the 25-35 mph range as
steep low level lapse rates reach up into a ~30 knot layer of winds.

After highs around 50 on Thursday, expect pretty a pretty small
diurnal range between Thursday night and Friday. After lows fall
into the upper 30s to around 40 on Thursday night, only expect highs
to bump a couple few degrees on Friday as a strong cold advection
component combines with heavy cloud cover and plenty of
precipitation. Temps aren't going to go anywhere in that scenario.

So, only calling for highs in the low 40s on Friday, and that might
be generous.

Friday night - Saturday night...

the upper trough axis quickly lifts out of the region Friday night,
with precipitation chances ending from W to E as the deeper moisture
and deformation band lift out of the area. The colder air finally
does get in here by Saturday morning, with temps in the upper 20s by
dawn.

Surface high pressure and benign zonal flow aloft control Saturday
and Saturday night, keeping us dry with temps near normal.

Sunday - christmas day...

confidence lowers overall to end the weekend and go into christmas
as models diverge on a couple of weaker disturbances passing through
the zonal flow aloft. Will likely keep some small chances in during
this time, but it's hard to be too specific or confident given the
spread in solutions. At the very least it looks like precipitation,
if any, would be mostly liquid. Although, there could be a brief
overunning mix on christmas morning if the ECMWF canadian are to be
believed. Overall, chances for a white (accumulating snow) christmas
seem low to nil at this point. Temps may even be slightly above
normal during the daylight hours for the first part of the week.

Aviation (00z TAF issuance)
updated at 620 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
high pressure ridging over the region from the east will continue to
provideVFR conditions this TAF period. Dry conditions should help
to alleviate any fog formation Wednesday morning. By late morning,
expect winds to pick up a little from the south, in the 5-10 knot
range.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Ky... None.

Short term... Ams
long term... Bjs
aviation... Rjs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntingburg, IN15 mi82 minN 010.00 miFair36°F30°F79%1021.1 hPa

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Last 24hrN4N3NE3CalmN3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmNE5CalmE35SE5CalmW4CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmE3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W3NW3W4NW3S3W44W5NW34NW7N6NW5NW5NW4NW4NW5N4
2 days agoNW7NW10NW10NW10N10
G15
N6NW5NW7NW5NW5NW8NW9W4W9W4S3SW4W7W8W8SW4SW4CalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.