Wednesday, September19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Birdseye, IN

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 4:28 PM EDT (20:28 UTC) Moonrise 4:02PMMoonset 1:16AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Birdseye, IN
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location: 38.37, -86.71     debug

Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 191904
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
304 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 303 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
ridging at all levels dominates the forecast area today as is
evident by the afternoon fair weather CU development and
unseasonably warm temperatures. Expect high temps today in the low
90s with urban areas in the mid 90s. Summer's not over yet as heat
indices could reach close to 100 degrees today so remember to check
your backseat before leaving your vehicle and drink lots of water.

Winds will be light out of the wsw today before backing to the se
overnight. Hi-res models are suggesting very isolated pop up showers
across the forecast area this afternoon, and this is already
verified with current radar. Much like yesterday, these cells are
convective but weak so expect only brief light to moderate rain with
maybe a crack of thunder if anything. Any convection should
dissipate after sunset.

Confidence in fog development outside of river valleys is quite low
for Thursday morning. Expect low temps in the upper 60s east of i-65
and in the lower 70s west of i-65. Urban centers, especially
louisville metro, may even stay in the mid 70s. Thursday will pretty
much be a repeat of today with fair weather CU popping up in the
afternoon and dissipating after sunset. Expect another hot day
Thursday with highs in the low 90s.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 303 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
Thursday night through Saturday night...

mid-level ridge axis is forecast to be to our east by Thursday
night. Dry weather is expected Thursday night and into Friday
morning with lows only cooling into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Surface cold front and upper trough axis will shift eastward toward
the ohio valley on Friday. Clouds will be on the increase in the
morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during
the afternoon and evening ahead of the surface frontal boundary.

Deep layer shear remains rather marginal across our area for severe
weather. Best shear values will be to our northeast. However, we
should have plenty of instability to work with to promote strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms. Main threat would be damaging
winds and heavy rainfall. Some marginal hail reports are possible,
but the overall kinematic thermodynamic set up leans more toward
damaging wind potential at this time. Highs Friday look to warm
into the mid-upper 80s.

The front is forecast to sag through the region Friday night and
Saturday, so showers and thunderstorms are a good bet Friday night
and into the early morning hours of Saturday. Latest round of
guidance suggests that the frontal boundary will push through much
of the region by Saturday morning while stalling out somewhere near
the ky tn border region. Saturday morning may be a little drier
than previously forecast as the front should be to our south and the
next wave will be out to our west. With the front in the area, we
expect plenty of clouds and scattered showers and storms. The next
wave is forecast to move into the region Saturday night which will
allow precipitation chances to ramp back up substantially.

Lows Friday night will depend on how far south the front gets. Right
now, lows should range from the lower 60s across southern indiana to
the mid-upper 60s across kentucky. Highs on Saturday should be kept
down by clouds with highs in the lower-mid 70s across southern in
and northern ky. The warmest temps will be south of the boundary
across southern ky with highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Lows
Saturday night will generally be in the lower-mid 60s.

Sunday through Wednesday...

by Sunday, upper trough axis is forecast to shift quickly off to the
east. The upper level flow will then become more zonal and parallel
to the stalled out frontal boundary. Upper ridge over the sw
atlantic is forecast to build back to the west slightly. This will
keep the flow mainly in a southwest-northeast configuration with
multiple mid-level waves moving through the region. Sunday and
Monday look to be very unsettled with cloudy skies and multiple
waves of showers storms moving through the region. A secondary
upper trough axis will approach the region Tuesday night forcing
another frontal boundary through the region. This will bring
another round of strong storms to the area.

Given the overall pattern, we'll need to be on the lookout for
hydrologic issues next week. Global model QPF has between 2 to 4
inches of rainfall across the region. The spatial spread is high
with the euro focusing the heavier rainfall across SE mo into
southern in while the GFS has the highest axis across tn into SE ky.

For now, have blended the forecast to a 50 50 blend of the GFS euro
with 2-3 inches of total QPF in the forecast.

Extended outlook (Thursday and into week 2)
combination of teleconnective analysis along with early season
signal analysis reveals that an active pattern is likely to continue
into late next week and into the first week of october. At the
beginning of the period, a very strong upper trough is forecast to
swing through the region. This trough is being forced by the
emergence of the west pacific monsoon regime along with the remnants
of mangkhut which allow for the pacific jet to become rather
elongated. This results in a strong ridge developing over ak and
western canada which teleconnects to a deep trough over the east.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to advance through the region
ahead of the upper trough and associated surface frontal boundary.

Some of these storms could be strong to severe as cips extended
analog guidance has already started to pick up on this. In
addition, CFS severe weather dashboard plots (chiclets) have also
signaled severe potential with this feature. Behind the front, much
cooler and drier air will push into the region. The models have
backed off with the initial cold, likely due to lingering clouds
with the upper trough hanging back to the west. However, there are
indications that some locations may be able to record their first
frosts by the late Sunday (9 30) and into Monday (10 1). Normal
first frosts in the ohio valley are in mid-late october. The first
week of october though has the potential to feel like early november
in many areas.

The cool down in week two has ample support from the mjo cycle.

Latest dynamical models show a strong pulse pushing through phase 8
and then into phase 1 and perhaps 2. CPC temperature composites
centered on october would support the pattern change from warm to
cold in rather quick fashion should the trek to phase 2 occur. Cpc
precipitation plots for this period and particular mjo configuration
also support above normal precipitation in the eastern us.

Tropical activity in the atlantic will need to be watched. Currently
westerly zonal upper level winds look to inhibit major development
over the basin. However, there is some potential for tropical
development in the mid-atlantic as large upper ridge undergoes a
wave break. This could induce a sub-tropical or tropical system.

Meteosat imagery does have some additional easterly waves coming off
the coast of africa. These could easily reach the western caribbean
and the SW atlantic in week two perhaps enhancing rainfall chances
in eastern us.

Aviation (18z TAF issuance)
issued at 145 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
upper ridge is still strongly in place over the region, which will
keep all TAF sitesVFR throughout Wednesday. Slight chance of fog
development in the early morning hours Thursday as skies clear out
overnight. Confidence isn't especially high on the development of
fog so included MVFR for reduced visibility at all TAF sites except
ksdf. Winds will be light out of the wsw today and then veer to the
se overnight. Expect a CU deck to form again tomorrow with afternoon

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Ky... None.

Short term... Cg
long term... .Mj
aviation... ..Cg

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntingburg, IN15 mi32 minS 410.00 miA Few Clouds92°F68°F46%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from HNB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW8W7SW6CalmCalmCalmE3CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4SW5SW45SW4SW6S4
1 day agoCalmS6S5S5S4CalmCalmS3CalmS3CalmS3S4S3S4S3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmN5NW6W7
2 days agoE10E8E7E6NE5NE4NE4NE5NE4N3N3CalmNW5NW6N6N5CalmCalmN3N7N4

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.