Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Huey, IL
March 19, 2024 8:13 AM CDT (13:13 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:58 AM Sunset 7:08 PM Moonrise 1:50 PM Moonset 4:31 AM |
Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 191034 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 534 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fine fuels will lead to heightened fire danger across much of the area today, though particularly in southeastern Missouri.
- The next chance for rain (up to roughly 40%) comes late Thursday into Friday.
SHORT TERM
(Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Current water vapor imagery shows northwesterly flow aloft over the CWA on the backside of a trough moving toward the east coast. At the surface, observations show an area of high pressure centered over the Mid South and edging eastward. The track of this high has had winds across the CWA slowly turning southerly, which has begun to advect warmer air into the CWA and slow to stall temperatures from cooling further.
This slowing/stalling of temperatures signals the start of a brief warm up for today. Winds will strengthen this morning as mixing begins and the pressure gradient tightens due to a surface low moving through the Great Lakes. Initially, winds will be southwesterly, giving an extra boost to our temperatures due to downsloping off the Ozarks. In turn, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 60s for most locations - about 10 degrees above normal. This warmth will couple with the dry air in place over the CWA and gusty winds to lead to Elevated Fire Danger this afternoon across much of the area, though particularly over southeastern Missouri where relative humidity will be lowest.
Late this afternoon into this evening, a cold front associated with the aforementioned surface low will sweep through the area, causing winds to shift to back out of the northwest overnight. Thanks to the lack of upper-level forcing and moisture return, this will be a dry FROPA. The northwesterly winds will advect cooler air back into the region, with overnight lows bottoming out in the mid to upper 30s for most locations.
Deep northwesterly flow will remain over the CWA on Wednesday as the upper-level trough broadens over the eastern CONUS and an area of high pressure edges into the region. Guidance varies on how far into the CWA this high progresses, and therefore, temperature spread for highs Wednesday afternoon vary by about 5 degrees within the IQR of ensemble guidance. Regardless of the exact values, temperatures for much of the region will be right around to just below climatological normals.
Elmore
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Starting Thursday into Friday, two different systems are set to impact the region. A shortwave will pass through the Mid South as another passes through the Midwest. The amplitude and speed of the former varies among ensemble clusters and deterministic guidance, and the longevity of the latter is in question, as most guidance weakens it as it moves through the Midwest. The result will be bifurcated rain chances for the CWA, with greater probabilities for rain remaining north and south of the region late Thursday into Friday. If the southern system is able to track further north, we will see rain chances increase, though it seems that the trend has been more southerly with only a low chance (20%) for rain from this system over portions of southeastern Missouri. The better chance (currently 30-40%) for rain comes with the northern system and its associated cold front. However, these probabilities are dependent on the strength of an already weakening shortwave and how much moisture is able to return ahead of the front given reduced access to Gulf moisture given the southern system. Given these factors, some of the area may see light rain late Thursday into Friday, but my confidence is low that any area will see notable rainfall during this portion of the period.
As we get into the weekend and early next week, confidence in the evolution of the upper-level pattern and the resulting surface conditions drops. In the wake of Friday's front, guidance consensus is that a large area of high pressure will move into the central CONUS. However, how far south this high progresses differs drastically among deterministic and ensemble guidance. Additionally, guidance shows varying degrees of southwesterly flow ahead of an upper-level trough Sunday into Monday. This impacts how quickly the high will retreat and southerly flow will return to the CWA ahead of a surface low moving through the region sometime early next week.
The result of these differences among guidance is anywhere from a 5- 20 degree spread in temperatures within the IQR this weekend into early next week. It also impacts the timing of our next chance for rainfall; though, guidance consensus is currently that we'll see chances (70-80%) ramp up during the latter half of Sunday into Monday. This early week system does have the potential to bring much needed widespread rainfall to the area, but the lead time and spread among guidance prevent me from saying that confidently.
Elmore
AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Confidence is high in dry and VFR flight conditions through the TAF period at all local terminals. Variable to southerly winds will become southwesterly this morning and strengthen. A dry cold front will move over the terminals late this afternoon and evening, causing winds to become gradually westerly to northwesterly.
Elmore
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 534 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fine fuels will lead to heightened fire danger across much of the area today, though particularly in southeastern Missouri.
- The next chance for rain (up to roughly 40%) comes late Thursday into Friday.
SHORT TERM
(Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Current water vapor imagery shows northwesterly flow aloft over the CWA on the backside of a trough moving toward the east coast. At the surface, observations show an area of high pressure centered over the Mid South and edging eastward. The track of this high has had winds across the CWA slowly turning southerly, which has begun to advect warmer air into the CWA and slow to stall temperatures from cooling further.
This slowing/stalling of temperatures signals the start of a brief warm up for today. Winds will strengthen this morning as mixing begins and the pressure gradient tightens due to a surface low moving through the Great Lakes. Initially, winds will be southwesterly, giving an extra boost to our temperatures due to downsloping off the Ozarks. In turn, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 60s for most locations - about 10 degrees above normal. This warmth will couple with the dry air in place over the CWA and gusty winds to lead to Elevated Fire Danger this afternoon across much of the area, though particularly over southeastern Missouri where relative humidity will be lowest.
Late this afternoon into this evening, a cold front associated with the aforementioned surface low will sweep through the area, causing winds to shift to back out of the northwest overnight. Thanks to the lack of upper-level forcing and moisture return, this will be a dry FROPA. The northwesterly winds will advect cooler air back into the region, with overnight lows bottoming out in the mid to upper 30s for most locations.
Deep northwesterly flow will remain over the CWA on Wednesday as the upper-level trough broadens over the eastern CONUS and an area of high pressure edges into the region. Guidance varies on how far into the CWA this high progresses, and therefore, temperature spread for highs Wednesday afternoon vary by about 5 degrees within the IQR of ensemble guidance. Regardless of the exact values, temperatures for much of the region will be right around to just below climatological normals.
Elmore
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Starting Thursday into Friday, two different systems are set to impact the region. A shortwave will pass through the Mid South as another passes through the Midwest. The amplitude and speed of the former varies among ensemble clusters and deterministic guidance, and the longevity of the latter is in question, as most guidance weakens it as it moves through the Midwest. The result will be bifurcated rain chances for the CWA, with greater probabilities for rain remaining north and south of the region late Thursday into Friday. If the southern system is able to track further north, we will see rain chances increase, though it seems that the trend has been more southerly with only a low chance (20%) for rain from this system over portions of southeastern Missouri. The better chance (currently 30-40%) for rain comes with the northern system and its associated cold front. However, these probabilities are dependent on the strength of an already weakening shortwave and how much moisture is able to return ahead of the front given reduced access to Gulf moisture given the southern system. Given these factors, some of the area may see light rain late Thursday into Friday, but my confidence is low that any area will see notable rainfall during this portion of the period.
As we get into the weekend and early next week, confidence in the evolution of the upper-level pattern and the resulting surface conditions drops. In the wake of Friday's front, guidance consensus is that a large area of high pressure will move into the central CONUS. However, how far south this high progresses differs drastically among deterministic and ensemble guidance. Additionally, guidance shows varying degrees of southwesterly flow ahead of an upper-level trough Sunday into Monday. This impacts how quickly the high will retreat and southerly flow will return to the CWA ahead of a surface low moving through the region sometime early next week.
The result of these differences among guidance is anywhere from a 5- 20 degree spread in temperatures within the IQR this weekend into early next week. It also impacts the timing of our next chance for rainfall; though, guidance consensus is currently that we'll see chances (70-80%) ramp up during the latter half of Sunday into Monday. This early week system does have the potential to bring much needed widespread rainfall to the area, but the lead time and spread among guidance prevent me from saying that confidently.
Elmore
AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Confidence is high in dry and VFR flight conditions through the TAF period at all local terminals. Variable to southerly winds will become southwesterly this morning and strengthen. A dry cold front will move over the terminals late this afternoon and evening, causing winds to become gradually westerly to northwesterly.
Elmore
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KENL CENTRALIA MUNI,IL | 14 sm | 18 min | SSW 13 | 10 sm | Clear | 32°F | 19°F | 59% | 30.07 | |
KSLO SALEMLECKRONE,IL | 18 sm | 18 min | SSW 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 32°F | 19°F | 59% | 30.06 |
Evansville, IN,
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