Thursday, August17, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Huey, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:47PM Thursday August 17, 2017 10:20 AM CDT (15:20 UTC) Moonrise 1:48AMMoonset 4:29PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Huey, IL
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location: 38.64, -89.3     debug

Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 171143
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
643 am cdt Thu aug 17 2017

Short term (through late tonight)
issued at 253 am cdt Thu aug 17 2017
the large elongated MCS that existed late yesterday evening from
central mo into central ok has lost considerable organization over
the last 4+ hours with the concentrated deep convection remnant
mcs sinking ssewd through SE ok and NW ar. Across eastern mo and
western il, the cloud tops have warmed considerably, the overall
extent of showers rain has been decreasing, and tstorms were
confined to a small area in SE mo. This remaining activity was
located well ahead of an advancing cold front currently extending
through NW mo, and was occurring in association with low level
mcon via a southwesterly LLJ and positively tilted short wave
moving into western mo. Present indications are the remaining
showers and isolated tstorms will move to the east of the CWA by
dawn in response to veering of the LLJ and migration of the short
wave. This is largely supported by the cams. A threat of showers
and thunderstorms will persist across far eastern mo and southwest
il this morning in the wake of the current activity and ahead of
the advancing cold front, albeit low. Even this low threat will
shrink diminish with time as the cold front continues to advance
east across the CWA this morning and afternoon. The most favored
area to see some new development would probably be southeast mo
into southwest-south central il late morning early afternoon. In
the wake of the cold front, skies will clear with westerly winds
advecting drier air into the region. Highs today should be
seasonable and within a few degrees of normal for mid august.

Weak high pressure, lowering dew points, and light west winds will
prevail tonight. This combination and clear skies, should result in
pleasant nighttime temps and below average overnight lows.


Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 253 am cdt Thu aug 17 2017
by 12z Friday, another shortwave will be located upstream over the
northern plains. This feature will take a more southeasterly track
compared to the previous shortwave, and it will bring a chance of
shra tsra to most of the area on Friday night and early Saturday
morning. Precipitation will likely be southeast of the CWA shortly
after daybreak because the upper trough axis will have shifted
east of the CWA by 12z. An broad and flat upper ridge will build
into the central CONUS behind the departing shortwave for the rest
of the weekend and early next week. There are a few weak
disturbances in the flow noted for early next week, but some of
them appear to be the result of convective contamination. Please
see the section below for information about the weather pattern on
the day of the total solar eclipse.

By the middle of next week, a deep low pressure system moving out
of the gulf of alaska will induce downstream height rises over
the intermountain west, allowing a cutoff low off the coast of
california to rejoin the flow as an open wave. The building ridge
over the west will yield a northwest flow pattern aloft over
mo il. One or more features within this flow pattern may bring a
chance of rain to the area. The shift to northwest flow aloft will
allow a backdoor cold front to move into the area on Wednesday
night and Thursday, bringing slightly cooler temperatures to mo il
during the middle and end of the week.


Discussion for total solar eclipse
(Monday august 21st)
at this point, it looks like our area might squeak by with at
least a chance of good viewing conditions somewhere along the path
of totality on early Monday afternoon before clouds and
precipitation begin to increase across the area on Monday night.

High temperatures on Monday will likely be in the lower 90s across
the area, although temperatures will locally fall by as much as
20 degrees during totality. NWS forecast grids at hourly
resolution will not capture the full temperature drop during the
brief 1-2 minute duration of totality.

The primary forecast issue for Monday is the potential for
mid high clouds. As noted in an earlier forecast discussion,
diurnal cumulus clouds should dissipate to some extent prior to
totality during the partial phase of the eclipse. This effect is
caused by reduced diurnal heating within the moon's shadow. In
terms of mid high clouds, the latest model depictions of
condensation pressure deficits are simultaneously both high (dry)
enough to offer hope and low (moist) enough to be discouraging,
giving credence to the adage about the misery of uncertainty. The
gfs appears to be affected by convective contamination and its
cpd solution was discarded at this time.

The ecmwf, gfs, and gem still show a broad ridge stretching across
the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS at 12z Monday... Although if
the ridge gets much flatter, it won't be much of a ridge.

Compared to 24hrs ago, the ECMWF shows good continuity with its
depiction of a weak shortwave over mn at 12z mon. The GFS and gem
appear to have convective contamination in the h5 vorticity
field, which makes it difficult to discern whether these models
might also depict a shortwave over ia or mn which could increase
cloud cover over our area on Monday.

The good news is that Sunday night's h85 LLJ will be focused
across neb sd, and the even better news is that the magnitude of
the forecast corfidi vectors is quite small across the region.

This means that it is unlikely for a rapidly propagating MCS to
race southeastward into our area during the pre-dawn and early
morning hours, leaving convective debris clouds to block the view
of the eclipse.

Please consider the above forecast with the same caveats as any
other day-5 forecast; there is normally a fair amount of
variability this far in advance.


Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 630 am cdt Thu aug 17 2017
a cold front was located across western mo early this morning. A
band of stratus resulting in ifr flight conditions prevailed ahead
of the front from west central il across northeast and central mo.

Ifr conditions will prevail through around 14-15z along this
corridor and then the movement of the cold front and westerly
wind shift will resulting in diminishing cloudsVFR conditions
and eventually clearing. Further east including metro st. Louis,
heating of the moist air mass ahead of the front is expected to
result in the development of stratocu producing MVFR flight
conditions from mid-late morning, with the cold FROPA and westerly
winds also resulting in improvement toVFR by midday. The westerly
winds will be a bit gusty from midday into the afternoon. Weak
high pressure and light winds are expected tonight withVFR flight
conditions continuing.

Specifics for kstl:
heating of the moist air mass ahead of an approaching cold front
is expected to result in the development of stratocu producing
MVFR flight conditions from mid-late morning. The cold FROPA and
westerly winds should result in improvement toVFR by midday. The
westerly winds will be a bit gusty from midday into the afternoon.

Weak high pressure and light winds are expected tonight withVFR
flight conditions continuing.


Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Centralia Municipal Airport, IL14 mi26 minWSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F71°F89%1013.2 hPa
Salem, Salem-Leckrone Airport, IL18 mi26 minSW 710.00 miFair76°F70°F83%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from ENL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE8SE7S9S9SE4S9S12S6SW16
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW3S4S3S3CalmCalmS5S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE6Calm
2 days agoCalmS5S3S5S5S8S6S5S3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Evansville, IN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.