Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Huey, IL
May 18, 2024 9:03 AM CDT (14:03 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:39 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 3:34 PM Moonset 3:15 AM |
FXUS63 KLSX 181037 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 537 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Patchy dense fog in river valleys is expected across parts of southeast and east central Missouri as well as southwest Illinois through early this morning.
- Seasonably warm temperatures are expected this weekend with highs well into the 80s each afternoon. Some spots may hit 90 degrees for the first time this year on Sunday.
- The weekend is also mostly dry, though some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon, mainly in parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois.
- Confidence continues to increase that an active weather pattern will be in place early/mid next week with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible. The best chance is along/ahead of a cold front late Tuesday/Tuesday night where the best potential for organized severe thunderstorms exists.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Latest satellite imagery shows river valley fog in parts of southeast and east central Missouri as well as southwest Illinois.
Most observations have been in the 1-5SM range for visibilities, though KFAM and KMDH have had brief periods of 1/4SM. Some patchy dense fog in river valleys will remain possible through about 7-8AM, but the current thought is that it will not be widespread enough to warrant an advisory.
The persistent midlevel shear axis that has been draped across the mid south/Ohio Valley the past couple of days will finally move out to the east today, with mid/upper level ridging moving across the Mississippi Valley. While a stray shower/weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in parts of southeast Missouri through early this afternoon in proximity to the aforementioned shear axis, chances look much lower than yesterday and believe any activity will be south and east of the forecast area. Early this evening, a cold front will approach parts of northeast Missouri. By the time the boundary reaches our area, it will become more diffuse with weakening surface convergence (and instability). As a result, we are not expecting any thunderstorm activity to leak into the area this evening. Therefore, dry weather is expected today/tonight with warming temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the mid 80s and leaned toward the 90th percentile of available model guidance due to sunshine expected today and increasing low- level warm air advection.
The warmer than normal conditions will continue for the remainder of the weekend with lows tonight only dropping back into the mid 60s for most locations (10-15 degrees above normal for the date). Highs on Sunday should be at least a couple of degrees warmer due to the warmer start to the day and higher afternoon 850-hPa temperatures.
Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees are expected, which should rival or exceed the warmest day so far this year for most locations.
A weak warm front is expected to push northward gradually during the day on Sunday, and by mid-late afternoon be located from west to east across parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois.
Convergence along this weak front is not terribly strong, mid/upper level heights continue to rise a bit during the day, and the stronger forcing for ascent resides well to our northwest. These factors lead a lot of uncertainty to whether any storms will be able to fire along the front. In addition, soundings show some weak capping that will need to be overcome. Some CAMs do have initiation in the vicinity of the front and we are carrying slight chance PoPs (~20%) for the afternoon. IF any storms are able to develop, there is plenty of instability (SBCAPE>2000 J/kg) for strong to severe storms. However, deep-layer shear is poleward of the front, with only ~20 knots along the boundary. This points more toward pulse convection and/or multicellular clusters. Marginally severe wind/hail would be possible in any storms that develop. Given the uncertainty in convective initiation though, we are not explicitly mentioning any severe threat at this time.
Gosselin
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
(Sunday Night - Monday Night)
Sunday evening is expected to be dry as the weak warm front moves north of the area and becomes more diffuse with time. A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid-Missouri Valley overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Widespread thunderstorms will be accompanied by this shortwave and increasing low-level moisture convergence. Some of these storms may move into parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois after midnight. How far east and how long the storms continue however into the day on Monday is a question mark as the low-level jet abates and the midlevel shortwave trough shifts off into the Great Lakes. These factors would seem to point to a lull in activity (if not outright dry weather) Monday afternoon. In addition, the synoptic cold front is well to the northwest of the area so there shouldn't be a surface boundary with associated convergence to help initiate convection. An outflow boundary from prior early morning storms is a possibility, but unsure if this alone would be enough to re-generate any afternoon storms.
(Tuesday - Tuesday Night)
Speaking of the synoptic cold front, spread on the timing has decreased in terms of its passage across our area. There is now higher confidence that it will enter northeast Missouri by late afternoon/early evening. Convective initiation should occur along/ahead of this boundary as a strong midlevel shortwave trough tracks through northwest Missouri. Convection likely will be discrete initially with the deep-layer shear vector having a strong orthogonal component to the cold front. There does not appear to be a lot of inhibition and the synoptic forcing is strong. Therefore, there may be a lot of updraft competition and mergers. Hodographs through the afternoon are also pretty straight, so there may be splitting supercells. Large hail will be the primary threat during this period. By early evening, would expect storms to congeal into a line/possible QLCS. The primary threats would shift more to damaging straight line winds and possible tornadoes as hodographs become a bit more elongated/curved.
Temperatures Tuesday should be even warmer than Monday ahead of the cold front with readings likely climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s across the region.
(Wednesday - Friday)
The cold front is expected to slow and eventually stall out by early Wednesday, but exactly where is a question mark. Tuesday night's convection also may be able to push pretty far to the south and east, which in turn likely would become the effective front. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday are in parts of southeast Missouri/southwest Illinois closer to the expected position of the synoptic cold front. Cannot rule out the possibility of strong/severe convection Wednesday afternoon/evening, but antecedent convection seems likely to push the axis of higher instability southeast of the forecast area. A trailing midlevel shortwave trough may interact with a region of increasing low/mid level frontogenesis to produce elevated shower/thunderstorm activity further to the northwest. This is uncertain however as deterministic guidance varies with the strength of the aforementioned low/mid level frontogenetical forcing.
A (relative/brief) dry period seems more likely across most of the area Wednesday night/Thursday morning as an area of high pressure moves into the region. Chances of showers and thunderstorms then looks to increase once again late Thursday into Friday as another midlevel shortwave trough moves out of the south-central Plains.
Model spread with this feature is quite high, so confidence in where/when thunderstorms are favored for the remainder of the forecast period is low.
Temperatures are expected to cool behind the cold front on Wednesday. Exactly how much cooler though is a question. Not only is the position of the front a bit uncertain on Wednesday, but also the possibility of elevated shower/thunderstorm activity further to the northwest. Temperatures may struggle to get out of the 60s if any elevated activity actually does materialize. Meanwhile, there is a least a low chance of temperatures near 90 degrees in parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois if the front is slow enough. The NBM 75th percentile in these locations is near 90, and the 90th percentile in the low 90s for reference.
Above normal temperatures are forecast to end the next work week, but generally about 5-8 degrees above normal with highs mostly ranging from the mid 70s to the low 80s.
Gosselin
AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Some river valley fog may impact KSUS/KCPS very early this morning but should evaporate quickly as the sun continues to rise.
Otherwise, dry/VFR conditions are forecast through the period with light/variable winds and plenty of sunshine.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
We are keeping an eye on some fog/stratus on satellite imagery just to the south of the terminal. It has been advecting a bit to the north over the past 1-2 hours. Cannot rule out a brief period of IFR visibilities/ceilings, but not confident enough to add a TEMPO at this point in time. Any fog/stratus threat is very short lived this morning, with dry/VFR conditions and light/variable winds expected through Sunday morning.
Gosselin
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 537 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Patchy dense fog in river valleys is expected across parts of southeast and east central Missouri as well as southwest Illinois through early this morning.
- Seasonably warm temperatures are expected this weekend with highs well into the 80s each afternoon. Some spots may hit 90 degrees for the first time this year on Sunday.
- The weekend is also mostly dry, though some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon, mainly in parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois.
- Confidence continues to increase that an active weather pattern will be in place early/mid next week with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible. The best chance is along/ahead of a cold front late Tuesday/Tuesday night where the best potential for organized severe thunderstorms exists.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Latest satellite imagery shows river valley fog in parts of southeast and east central Missouri as well as southwest Illinois.
Most observations have been in the 1-5SM range for visibilities, though KFAM and KMDH have had brief periods of 1/4SM. Some patchy dense fog in river valleys will remain possible through about 7-8AM, but the current thought is that it will not be widespread enough to warrant an advisory.
The persistent midlevel shear axis that has been draped across the mid south/Ohio Valley the past couple of days will finally move out to the east today, with mid/upper level ridging moving across the Mississippi Valley. While a stray shower/weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in parts of southeast Missouri through early this afternoon in proximity to the aforementioned shear axis, chances look much lower than yesterday and believe any activity will be south and east of the forecast area. Early this evening, a cold front will approach parts of northeast Missouri. By the time the boundary reaches our area, it will become more diffuse with weakening surface convergence (and instability). As a result, we are not expecting any thunderstorm activity to leak into the area this evening. Therefore, dry weather is expected today/tonight with warming temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the mid 80s and leaned toward the 90th percentile of available model guidance due to sunshine expected today and increasing low- level warm air advection.
The warmer than normal conditions will continue for the remainder of the weekend with lows tonight only dropping back into the mid 60s for most locations (10-15 degrees above normal for the date). Highs on Sunday should be at least a couple of degrees warmer due to the warmer start to the day and higher afternoon 850-hPa temperatures.
Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees are expected, which should rival or exceed the warmest day so far this year for most locations.
A weak warm front is expected to push northward gradually during the day on Sunday, and by mid-late afternoon be located from west to east across parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois.
Convergence along this weak front is not terribly strong, mid/upper level heights continue to rise a bit during the day, and the stronger forcing for ascent resides well to our northwest. These factors lead a lot of uncertainty to whether any storms will be able to fire along the front. In addition, soundings show some weak capping that will need to be overcome. Some CAMs do have initiation in the vicinity of the front and we are carrying slight chance PoPs (~20%) for the afternoon. IF any storms are able to develop, there is plenty of instability (SBCAPE>2000 J/kg) for strong to severe storms. However, deep-layer shear is poleward of the front, with only ~20 knots along the boundary. This points more toward pulse convection and/or multicellular clusters. Marginally severe wind/hail would be possible in any storms that develop. Given the uncertainty in convective initiation though, we are not explicitly mentioning any severe threat at this time.
Gosselin
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
(Sunday Night - Monday Night)
Sunday evening is expected to be dry as the weak warm front moves north of the area and becomes more diffuse with time. A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid-Missouri Valley overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Widespread thunderstorms will be accompanied by this shortwave and increasing low-level moisture convergence. Some of these storms may move into parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois after midnight. How far east and how long the storms continue however into the day on Monday is a question mark as the low-level jet abates and the midlevel shortwave trough shifts off into the Great Lakes. These factors would seem to point to a lull in activity (if not outright dry weather) Monday afternoon. In addition, the synoptic cold front is well to the northwest of the area so there shouldn't be a surface boundary with associated convergence to help initiate convection. An outflow boundary from prior early morning storms is a possibility, but unsure if this alone would be enough to re-generate any afternoon storms.
(Tuesday - Tuesday Night)
Speaking of the synoptic cold front, spread on the timing has decreased in terms of its passage across our area. There is now higher confidence that it will enter northeast Missouri by late afternoon/early evening. Convective initiation should occur along/ahead of this boundary as a strong midlevel shortwave trough tracks through northwest Missouri. Convection likely will be discrete initially with the deep-layer shear vector having a strong orthogonal component to the cold front. There does not appear to be a lot of inhibition and the synoptic forcing is strong. Therefore, there may be a lot of updraft competition and mergers. Hodographs through the afternoon are also pretty straight, so there may be splitting supercells. Large hail will be the primary threat during this period. By early evening, would expect storms to congeal into a line/possible QLCS. The primary threats would shift more to damaging straight line winds and possible tornadoes as hodographs become a bit more elongated/curved.
Temperatures Tuesday should be even warmer than Monday ahead of the cold front with readings likely climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s across the region.
(Wednesday - Friday)
The cold front is expected to slow and eventually stall out by early Wednesday, but exactly where is a question mark. Tuesday night's convection also may be able to push pretty far to the south and east, which in turn likely would become the effective front. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday are in parts of southeast Missouri/southwest Illinois closer to the expected position of the synoptic cold front. Cannot rule out the possibility of strong/severe convection Wednesday afternoon/evening, but antecedent convection seems likely to push the axis of higher instability southeast of the forecast area. A trailing midlevel shortwave trough may interact with a region of increasing low/mid level frontogenesis to produce elevated shower/thunderstorm activity further to the northwest. This is uncertain however as deterministic guidance varies with the strength of the aforementioned low/mid level frontogenetical forcing.
A (relative/brief) dry period seems more likely across most of the area Wednesday night/Thursday morning as an area of high pressure moves into the region. Chances of showers and thunderstorms then looks to increase once again late Thursday into Friday as another midlevel shortwave trough moves out of the south-central Plains.
Model spread with this feature is quite high, so confidence in where/when thunderstorms are favored for the remainder of the forecast period is low.
Temperatures are expected to cool behind the cold front on Wednesday. Exactly how much cooler though is a question. Not only is the position of the front a bit uncertain on Wednesday, but also the possibility of elevated shower/thunderstorm activity further to the northwest. Temperatures may struggle to get out of the 60s if any elevated activity actually does materialize. Meanwhile, there is a least a low chance of temperatures near 90 degrees in parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois if the front is slow enough. The NBM 75th percentile in these locations is near 90, and the 90th percentile in the low 90s for reference.
Above normal temperatures are forecast to end the next work week, but generally about 5-8 degrees above normal with highs mostly ranging from the mid 70s to the low 80s.
Gosselin
AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Some river valley fog may impact KSUS/KCPS very early this morning but should evaporate quickly as the sun continues to rise.
Otherwise, dry/VFR conditions are forecast through the period with light/variable winds and plenty of sunshine.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
We are keeping an eye on some fog/stratus on satellite imagery just to the south of the terminal. It has been advecting a bit to the north over the past 1-2 hours. Cannot rule out a brief period of IFR visibilities/ceilings, but not confident enough to add a TEMPO at this point in time. Any fog/stratus threat is very short lived this morning, with dry/VFR conditions and light/variable winds expected through Sunday morning.
Gosselin
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KENL CENTRALIA MUNI,IL | 14 sm | 28 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 66°F | 83% | 29.90 | |
| KSLO SALEMLECKRONE,IL | 18 sm | 28 min | S 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 64°F | 73% | 29.90 |
Evansville, IN,
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