Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mitchell, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 6:29PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 4:17 PM EST (21:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:57PMMoonset 8:24AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mitchell, IN
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location: 38.75, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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Fxus63 kind 202018
afdind
area forecast discussion
national weather service indianapolis in
318 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Update
The synopsis... Near term... Short term... Long term and aviation
sections have been updated below.

Synopsis
Issued at 318 pm est Wed feb 20 2019
a frontal system will push off to the east early this evening. In
the wake of this front, high pressure will move through the ohio
valley on Thursday. A strong low pressure system is expected to
affect the area over the upcoming weekend. High pressure is expected
to build into the area for early next week.

Near term rest of this afternoon and tonight
Issued at 318 pm est Wed feb 20 2019
a weak broad occlusion currently arcing across eastern illinois,
with areas of rain and fog along and ahead of this feature. Short
term models suggest this feature will drift across the area during
the rest of the afternoon, passing off to the east around 210000z.

Will continue the pops into the early evening hours until frontal
passage, and cut them after that.

Short term model data suggests low cloud cover may begin to scatter
out from the southwest late tonight, although it appears there will
be quite a bit of high cloud cover lasting most of the night.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS mos lows tonight are probably
too cool. Will bump up the guidance lows tonight about 2-5 degrees.

Short term Thursday through Saturday
Issued at 318 pm est Wed feb 20 2019
it appears the precipitation focus for Thursday and Thursday night
will be south of the forecast area, closer to the tennessee valley.

Some of the ensembles bring the northern fringes of the precipitation
threat close to the southern border zones, so this may have to be
watched in case things start to trend north. For now, will keep
Thursday and Thursday night dry.

Warm advection begins to spread across the area by Friday, as the
next upper trough moves into the plains. Will bring in chance pops
for rain to the southern zones by Friday afternoon, and all areas
Friday night.

Stronger forcing is expected to arrive by Saturday, as models prog a
low level jet, possibly in excess of 60 kts, will nose into the
area, coupled with advection of precipitable waters near the top end
of climatology. Will go with high pops for Saturday. The combination
of a strong low level jet, very high precipitable waters, and some
elevated instability, suggest potential for heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorms on Saturday. Deep layer shear may also become very
high by Saturday afternoon, with the approach of a 100-120 kt 500mb
jet.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS mos highs for Friday
look too warm. Will cut about 5 degrees off of the guidance highs in
that period. Other periods look ok for now.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Issued at 318 pm est Wed feb 20 2019
the beginning of the extended period will be the most active
portion of the forecast as a surface low rapidly deepens Saturday
night as it tracks northeast into the great lakes. The potential
for severe storms will exist during the evening along and
immediately ahead of the associated cold front. At this early
stage... Shear and helicity profiles are quite impressive with
strong mid and upper level diffluence courtesy of a split jet
regime aloft.

A classic high shear low CAPE environment would likely support a
fast moving low topped squall line impacting parts of the region
Saturday evening. With 60kt winds as low as 2-3kft... Damaging
winds will be the primary threat but the available helicity
values in the lowest 1-3 km will support an isolated tornado risk
too. The higher severe weather threat will likely be displaced to
the southwest of the forecast area... But have seen these cool
season setups too many times to discount potential here in central
indiana.

Any threat for severe convection will end as soon as the front
passes Saturday evening. However... The primary impact will shift
to a prolonged period with strong winds that will likely last into
Sunday evening due to a combination of an extremely tight surface
pressure gradient between the intensifying surface low and strong
high pressure diving out of the canadian prairies. With post
frontal cold advection and continued strong flow through the
boundary layer... Growing concern that peak gusts will be well
into wind advisory criteria and possibly higher. This will be
something to closely monitor in addition to the severe threat
going forward in the coming days. But it is awfully impressive
that sounding data already suggesting potential for peak gusts to
push 50mph if not slightly higher at 3 1 2 to 4 days out.

The remainder of the extended will be largely quiet as opposed to
the first 24 hours. The aforementioned canadian high will take
over for early week with dry and cool weather. A fast moving
front and low will track into the region late Tuesday into
Wednesday and enough cold air will be present for a rain snow
mix. Beyond the seven day... Hints continue to show that the
predominantly zonal flow regime aloft will transition to a
northwest flow with more substantial cold impacting the region for
the end of february into early march.

Aviation discussion for 202100z TAF update
Issued at 318 pm est Wed feb 20 2019
forecast in good shape at this point mid afternoon with only minor
adjustments needed. Vlifr conditions will continue at the
terminals for the next few hours. 18z discussion follows.

Poor flying conditions will continue into this evening with a slow
improvement toVFR conditions towards daybreak Thursday.

Drizzle and light rain continues late this morning across the
region with widespread sub-ifr conditions. More widespread rain
will return through the afternoon as a secondary surface wave
lifts into the region from the southwest. Model soundings show
a saturated near surface layer with high confidence in significant
visibility and ceiling restrictions through much of the
afternoon. Ceilings as low as 200-300 ft are possible at the
terminals with visibilities lower than 2sm at times. Winds will
veer from southeast to southwest by early evening as the low
pressure passes through the area.

Rain will shift east of the region towards sunset with dry
conditions developing this evening as high pressure builds into
the lower ohio valley. Lower stratus will be slow to lift and
scatter as model soundings indicate a sharp bu t shallow inversion
lingering below 900mb for much of the night. Should see gradual
improvements back toVFR ceilings late tonight into Thursday
morning with clouds fully scattering by midday Thursday. Westerly
winds are expected tonight into Thursday.

Ind watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Jas
near term... Jas
short term... Jas
long term... .Ryan
aviation... Ryan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bloomington, Monroe County Airport, IN29 mi25 minS 72.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist45°F0°F%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from BMG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7NE6NE5NE4NE6NE6----------------E10E12E10E10E10SE8SE10S11S9S7
1 day agoNW6NW6NW5NW6NW7NW8--CalmCalmCalmCalm----E5E5N5NE5NE7NE6E6NE6NE8NE7E10
2 days agoSE8W6W5W6W6W5--------------W10W10W10W11W5W9W8W5W5W12W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Indianapolis, IN (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.