Thursday, May23, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Mitchell, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 9:00PM Thursday May 23, 2019 12:50 PM EDT (16:50 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:31AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mitchell, IN
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location: 38.75, -86.48     debug

Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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Fxus63 kind 231427
area forecast discussion
national weather service indianapolis in
1027 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Aviation section updated

Issued at 322 am edt Thu may 23 2019
a frontal boundary will slide into the region today bringing
multiple rounds of heavy rain and intense thunderstorms early this
morning and again later this afternoon and into the evening. The
front will lift north on Friday before becoming quasi-stationary
through the upcoming holiday weekend. This will result in a very
warm and humid airmass remaining over the ohio valley along with
periodic threats for strong to possibly severe storms.

Near term this afternoon
Issued at 1012 am edt Thu may 23 2019
surface analysis late this morning shows a weak frontal boundary
in place across southern central indiana. An area of showers along
the front was still working east... Traveling across southern
indiana. Goes16 shows an area of cloud along the front associated
with the convection... And a more extensive area of thunderstorms
farther west over SW missouri along the tail end of the front.

Models suggest the frontal boundary will stall and linger across
southern indiana this afternoon. Hrrr suggests redevelopment along
and near the front this afternoon as convective temperatures in
the lower 80s area reached. Forecast soundings show a
conditionally unstable column with plenty of CAPE near 3000 j kg.

Furthermore... Convection upstream over missouri should continue to
propagate eastward in the the area. Thus will include a dry
period in the forecast late this morning and early
afternoon... Before returning pops to the forecast... Mainly across
the southern parts of the forecast area after 2pm.

Short term tonight through Saturday night
Issued at 322 am edt Thu may 23 2019
forecast challenges continue to focus on timing rain storm chances
into the holiday weekend as the frontal boundary shifts north but
continues to meander across the region.

Amplified upper level pattern will persist across the country
through the short term... Anchored by an upper low that will kick out
of the intermountain west and into the canadian prairies by
Saturday. Downstream across the eastern half of the country... Strong
ridging aloft will center over the mid south and remain in place
through the upcoming weekend. Central indiana will reside on the
periphery of the ridge for much of the period with the exception of
Friday and Friday night as the ridge axis flexes over the ohio
valley. This places the region in a favorable location to be
impacted by convective clusters associated with waves aloft rippling
through the zonal flow. The position of the frontal boundary will
become key as well and serve as a focus for storms to track through
the weekend.

Convection that develops this afternoon in vicinity of the frontal
boundary over southern counties will likely continue into the
evening before diminishing as forcing aloft is lost. The boundary
will lift back north across the region late tonight into Friday
morning and may bring isolated to scattered convection with it as it
shifts north. However a lack of more extensive low level forcing
should mitigate more substantial convective coverage. The front will
continue north into the lower great lakes on Friday with the threat
for storms shifting into the northern part of the state by late day
into Friday night.

The boundary will likely drop back south Saturday and Saturday night
as heights aloft flatten. While there still remains plenty of
uncertainty with respect to how far south the boundary comes... Model
guidance hinting at a surface wave tracking along the boundary
Saturday afternoon and evening that would support the potential for
more widespread convection impacting the forecast area near and
north of i-70 at a minimum. Ample amounts of instability combined
with enhanced low level flow and shear near the boundary would
certainly support a severe weather risk with any storms Saturday
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds would likely be the primary
threat but model soundings suggest all forms of severe weather
would be possible. In addition... Precip water levels will remain
elevated through the period. Unfortunately... That means potential
for additional torrential rains from these storm cluster on top of
saturated soils over the region.

Temps... Very warm and humid air will remain across the ohio valley
through the period. Temps may be held back just a bit on Friday with
clouds and scattered convection as the front shifts back north. Mid
and upper 80s though look solid for the entire forecast area
Saturday and a few locations may make a run at 90 degrees. Utilized
a model blend for lows through the period.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Issued at 235 am edt Thu may 23 2019
appears pattern will become more progressive early next week as
ensembles indicate a large chunk of the persistent western trough
will eject into the western great lakes by the middle of next
week. This should allow for the current upper ridge to move to a
position near the east coast.

Ensembles continue to indicate daily chances for convection as a
frontal boundary lingers over the area. There are still some
indications that the front may shift more to the north by Monday
and Tuesday, as western trough starts to eject towards the area.

This may result in a relative minimum threat for precipitation
around Monday and Tuesday, before the threat increases again by
next Wednesday as the trough, and associated frontal system,

Aviation discussion for the 231500z ind TAF update
Vfr conditions are expected to continue. As convective
temperatures are reached... Scattered CU is expected to develop
after 18z... But CIGS will remainVFR. Shower and storm chances
will begin after 18z as convective temperatures are
reached... However... Chances at ind appear too low to be worthy of
a mention at this point. Better chances are expected at points
farther south of the ind TAF site.

Previous discussion below
discussion for the 231200z tafs ...

issued at 635 am edt Thu may 23 2019
convective line continues to sag southeast through the local area.

Extrapolation and short term model data suggest convective threat
should diminish over the remaining terminals by the mid morning

Additional scattered convection possible later this afternoon over
the southern terminals, where a trailing vorticity tail hangs back
in that area coupled with an unstable air mass.

Otherwise, areas of MVFR ceilings 015-030 may develop in the wake
of current convection, which could linger into the early afternoon
hours. Current surface wind pattern rather messy due to
convection, but expecting winds to settle into 220-240 degrees
later this morning, with winds gradually veering a bit to 250-280
degrees later this afternoon. Surface gusts 20-25 kts should
become more frequent towards the afternoon hours.

Ind watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... Ryan
near term... Puma
short term... Ryan
long term... .Jas
aviation... Jas jp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bloomington, Monroe County Airport, IN29 mi58 minSSW 11 G 1610.00 miFair75°F72°F90%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from BMG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS7S7SW9S7S7SW6S8S6S4S3SE5S3SE5SE6SE7S10SW10
1 day agoE6E11NE9E11
2 days agoW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Indianapolis, IN (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.