Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mitchell, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 5:33PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 6:35 PM EST (23:35 UTC) Moonrise 1:16PMMoonset 11:36PM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mitchell, IN
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location: 38.75, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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Fxus63 kind 142253
afdind
area forecast discussion
national weather service indianapolis in
553 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Update
The aviation section has been updated below.

Synopsis
Issued at 349 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
dry weather will continue for a few more hours, but moisture is
quickly building into the southern portions of central indiana as
a low pressure system moves closer to the tennessee valley. The
system will bring wintry precipitation to all of central indiana
tonight into tomorrow. Snow and ice accumulations will make the
Thursday morning commute hazardous. The system will then exit
Thursday evening, and dry conditions will then prevail into the
weekend. At that point, a cold front will bring the next chance
for light snow and rain showers over the weekend.

Near term tonight through Thursday evening
Issued at 349 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
current water vapor satellite shows an area of low pressure
rotation over southern mo northern ar, which will be the focus of
the near and short term periods. The imagery also shows an influx
of moisture into southern indiana. So, the dry conditions will
only continue through the evening hours before the air column
becomes saturated and precipitation starts falling.

Depending on how quickly the lower levels saturate and the exact
start time of the precipitation will make a big difference in
precipitation type with this system. Initially, there could be
some light snow showers if the lower levels are able to saturate
before Thu 00z. But, if precipitation starts any later than that,
precipitation could quickly change to a wintry mix of snow, sleet,
and freezing rain as forecast soundings trend toward a warm nose
in the mid levels. By midnight though, that wintry mix should be
the predominant precipitation type through Thursday morning. As
temperatures warm even further through the day on Thursday,
freezing rain and rain will become the prevailing precipitation
types through the remainder of the storm system.

Due to the increase in warmer air aloft, snowfall totals have been
reduced a bit and ice accumulations have been increased. So,
latest snow totals are now trending toward less than an inch
across the southeastern third of the forecast area to 1 to 1.5
inches over most of the area, and up to 3 inches across the far
western counties. Meanwhile, ice accumulations are now trending
closer to a tenth of an inch across the southeast quadrant, then
gradually decreasing northwestward.

As the system pushes east northeastward on Thursday,
precipitation chances will diminish from west to east with the
western counties dry by Thu 23z. Elsewhere, light rain and
freezing rain will linger across the eastern counties until fri
06z. After that, precipitation should be out of the entire
forecast area.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
Issued at 349 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
after Fri 06z, the aforementioned system will quickly move off to
the northeast u.S. And dry conditions will return for most of the
short term period. In addition, weak warm advection will bump
daytime highs up a bit on Friday and Saturday into the upper 30s
(north)to low to mid 40s (central and south).

Saturday, precipitation chances will start increasing again from
the northwest as a cold front approaches central indiana.

Precipitation will initially start as rain, then transition to
snow, but accumulations will be minimal.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Issued at 255 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
the extended timeframe begins with the forecast area under the
influence of a broad upper trough aloft and a frontal boundary at
850mb across the northern portion of central indiana. The main
weather- maker during the extended portion of the timeframe rest
with the approach of an upper trough rotating through the broad
upper cyclonic flow. The GFS swings the effects of this system
through a bit faster than the ECMWF solution. Because of this
disagreement, decided to stick close to the regional
initialization blend which trended toward the slower ecmwf
solution. A slight chance for snow across the northern half of the
area is in place to start the timeframe. Then precipitation
chances increase and overspread the region during the day on
Sunday into Sunday evening... With precipitation coming to an end
from northwest to southeast Sunday night. Snow to start gives way
to rain over much of the area on Sunday as temperatures warm. The
northwest portion of central indiana looks to see rain mix with
snow Sunday afternoon before much of the area returns to all snow
Sunday evening. If any accumulations were to occur... They look to
be light.

Monday looks to be the coolest day of the extended with highs from
the middle 30s to near 40 degrees. Then a gradual warming trend
takes root with highs on Wednesday from the lower 40s north to
near 50 degrees south.

Aviation (discussion for the 150000z TAF issuance)
Issued at 553 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
poor flying conditions are expected to develop by overnight and will
persist through Thursday. A wintry mix will fall overnight into
Thursday morning.

Precipitation should take a while to reach the ground at the taf
sites this evening with a dry low level atmosphere. Precipitation
will fall overnight into the early daylight hours of Thursday, then
diminish.

Looks like warm air aloft will create a mix of freezing rain and
sleet overnight at kind kbmg, with mainly snow sleet at the other
sites. Confidence remains low at the moment on timing of when sleet
or freezing rain will be predominant, so put them both in all night
where needed.

Colder air working in Thursday morning should allow precipitation to
change to all snow, then perhaps to rain as temperatures warm up
later in the morning.

Ind watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory from 7pm Wednesday to 7 pm est Thursday for
inz021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

Synopsis... Tdud
near term... Tdud
short term... Tdud
long term... .Mrd
aviation... 50


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bloomington, Monroe County Airport, IN29 mi43 minE 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast32°F19°F61%1028.7 hPa

Wind History from BMG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmCalmCalmNW3N5N4N5N4N5NE4NE4E4CalmE7E10E8E8E8NE7NE8NE10NE10E10
G16
1 day agoN7N11
G18
N9N9N11N11N10
G16
N9N95
G14
N5N7N10
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N55N8N6NW7N8NW5NW85N4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5E63N3N5N9NE7N9N8N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Indianapolis, IN (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.