Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mitchell, IN

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Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 8:35PM Monday August 20, 2018 5:04 AM EDT (09:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:43PMMoonset 1:00AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mitchell, IN
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location: 38.75, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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Fxus63 kind 200836
afdind
area forecast discussion
national weather service indianapolis in
436 am edt Mon aug 20 2018

Update
The aviation section has been updated below.

Synopsis
Issued at 310 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
a low pressure system will bring showers and some thunderstorms to
central indiana today & Tuesday. High pressure will then bring dry
and cooler conditions mid-week, but rain chances will return to
parts of the area for the weekend as warm and humid conditions
return.

Near term (today)
issued at 310 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
early this morning, showers and thunderstorms were near the
mississippi river ahead of an upper low and a surface low pressure
system. Movement was to the north-northeast.

Isentropic lift will increase this morning ahead of a warm front
associated with the low pressure system to the west. 850mb flow will
increase and will pump more moisture into the area.

Hi-res short term models indicate a band of precipitation moving
into the area from the southwest early in the today period and then
gradually working northeast as the warm front moves in. This looks
reasonable given the setup. Models also show some breaks in the line
rather than a solid band by the time it gets into our area.

Thus will only go likely category pops with this band as it moves
northeast through the area today. Forcing diminishes behind the
band, but instability will increase with some heating. Thus will
keep pops in chance category after the band moves through to cover
any scattered convection that develops.

The next round of forcing looks to remain just west of the area
before 00z, so will hold off on higher pops until the tonight period.

A decent amount of uncertainty exists on how much if any clearing
occurs in the warm sector this afternoon. This will have an impact
on high tempertures as well as how much instability builds. This
leads to lower confidence in the threat for severe storms today. The
storm prediction center's marginal risk for much of the area looks
reasonable given this setup.

Precipitable water values will be high today, so locally heavy rain
will be a threat as well.

Given the uncertainty in cloud cover this afternoon, stuck with the
model blend for high temperatures.

Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)
issued at 310 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Another round of forcing moves in this evening and will likely
generate another band of convection. Will go likely pops across the
forecast area as this forcing works its way east into the early
overnight hours. The actual cold front moves in late tonight, and
this could bring more convection. Thus will continue with likely
pops for much of the area overnight, diminishing late.

As mentioned in the near term section, the amount of instability
will be in question this evening. If enough builds, severe storms
will remain possible this evening, mainly across the western half of
the area. Locally heavy rain will remain a threat with the high
moisture content of the atmosphere.

An upper trough will remain across the area on Tuesday, so continued
with mainly chance pops across the area. Kept some lingering shower
chances across parts of the area Tuesday night as the system exits.

High pressure will then build in and provide dry and cooler
conditions Wednesday.

Long term Thursday through Sunday night
Issued at 335 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
high pressure centered over the lower midwest will keep conditions
dry from Thursday through Friday morning, which is a little longer
than previous model runs. Then shower and thunderstorm chances
will increase from the northwest on Friday afternoon as an upper
low enters the upper midwest. The highest chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be on Friday night when forcing is the best
with this disturbance. After that, just low chances for periodic
showers and thunderstorms can be expected for the remainder of the
weekend as weak waves rotate around a ridge of high pressure to
the south. Meanwhile, temperatures through the period will start
out below normal for Thursday and Friday, increasing back into the
mid 80s to upper 80s by Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows in
the mid to upper 50s on Thursday night will also rebound back
into the 60s through the end of the extended period.

Aviation discussion for the 20 09z TAF update
Issued at 433 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
update...

no changes.

Previous discussion...

surface dewpoint depressions are rather narrow across the area, so
some visibility restrictions in fog are possible through the mid
morning hours of Monday. High level cloud and a light wind should
help to prevent widespread and prolonged ifr restrictions.

Otherwise, model data indicate some organized lift from
approaching plains system will be moving into the southwestern
parts of the state by the mid morning hours. Scattered convection
is possible in the vicinity of the terminals by this time. May
also see areas of ceilings around 050 develop by mid to late
morning.

Light surface winds overnight will become 140-160 degrees at 8-11
kts after sunrise Monday.

Ind watches warnings advisories None.

Synopsis... 50
near term... 50
short term... 50
long term... .Tdud
aviation... Jas tdud


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bloomington, Monroe County Airport, IN29 mi72 minESE 510.00 miFair70°F68°F93%1012.7 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmCalm3CalmCalmE4CalmE7E4E53SE45SE5CalmCalmCalmE3SE4CalmSE3CalmE5SE5
1 day agoN3N3NE5N4N3NE3N4N744E5NE6N6CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW6W4S4CalmSW4SW4S7SW6SW6SW5SW11
G16
SW4CalmCalmSW3SW7CalmSE3N3CalmCalmCalmNW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Indianapolis, IN (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.