Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 11:43 PM   Moonset 7:41 AM

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FXUS63 KICT 270537 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1237 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms remain possible across the Flint Hills this afternoon and early evening.

- Severe storms, a few possibly significant, likely midday Saturday into Saturday night.

- Active weather return by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A upper level wave and associated surface cold front will continue to move eastward across Kansas this afternoon. Current satellite imagery was showing agitated cumulus in the deeper moisture east of the Kansas Turnpike in response to the approaching wave/cold front.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and some of them could produce significant severe weather. SHIP parameter values are supportive of significant hail over two inches in size, damaging winds around 65mph, and a strong tornado will also be possible given low LCLs favorable low-level SRH(especially for any storm that can remain more discrete). The activity should shift eastward into Missouri by late this afternoon/early evening.

Tomorrow still has the potential to bring significant severe weather to the area, there remains a higher degree of uncertainty than one might like this close the event. There remains uncertainty in the forecast ranging from how potential convection initiating in SW Oklahoma tomorrow morning could disturb the warm sector, to expected storm mode in the CWA, and to timing of CI over the area.

What we know is confidence is growing that more widespread coverage of storms is expected, but the degree of the severe risks remain in question. The deeper and more amplified trough pattern is continuing to hold thus as the severe event goes on, expect flooding to begin to play a bigger role in event. With heavy rainfall and training storms possible, a flood watch has been issued across portions of south central and southeast Kansas from tomorrow afternoon through Sunday morning. Expect rises on rivers and creeks and impacts to low water crossings.

A weak cap and ample forcing for ascent from the ejecting trough, along with strong warm moist advection may generate storms early tomorrow afternoon. If so, severe hazards would be limited to very large hail and damaging winds for the start of the event. As the afternoon continues, and storm coverage increases, we may see the expected hail size reduce as anvil seeding tempers the otherwise very large hail threat. That said, storms that can remain more discrete to semi discrete, likely closer to the dryline will continue to pose a very large hail threat. The threat for a strong tornado builds as we move into the late afternoon and early evening as the LLJ/SRH ramps up.
However, the confidence in the magnitude of the tornado threat is lower given potential messy storm mode by the time the environment would support them. The window for any discrete to semi discrete storms/broken lines appears short.

The sfc low tomorrow will be in the vicinity of western KS and is progged to deepen and setup a dryline just west of the CWA by peak heating. Moderate to strong instability (2500-3500 J/kg)
will combine with strong flow (50kts+ bulk shear), with a developing LL Jet/strong SRH late afternoon/early evening, and modest 3CAPE. Any storm that can remain discrete or even semi- discrete in this type of environment will pose significant hazards including a strong tornado, large to very large (2-3+ inch) hail, and damaging wind gusts. Expect the storms to go upscale with time and transition to mainly a wind and flooding threat as we head into tomorrow evening and night. The sooner storms go upscale, the sooner the sig hail and sig tor threat gets reduced. Most activity should end by Sunday morning, with just far southeast KS potentially lingering through late Sunday morning.

The upper trough will lift northeastward on Sunday, making way for a warming trend as we go into the middle the next week. Quiet weather will prevail at least until middle of next week and into the end of next week as the next western CONUS trough develops with embedded shortwaves moving through the mean flow.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

MVFR CIGS have returned at CNU and will do so at ICT, HUT, and SLN by sunrise. These CIGS will gradually scatter back to VFR near midday. A compact, yet strong 50-60 kt LLJ near 1.4 kt, has developed across south central KS and is contributing to LLWS conditions. LLWS conditions will subside shortly after sunrise.
Otherwise, the main concern through the period is the development of severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Storms are likely to remain widely scattered therefore confidence is too low for any prevailing mention at this time.
An introduction of prevailing -TSRA is probable with later outlooks.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

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