Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sharon Springs, KS
May 12, 2024 11:07 PM CDT (04:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:33 AM Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 9:16 AM Moonset 12:12 AM |
FXUS63 KGLD 130040 AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 640 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Another round of showers/thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday with a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall Wednesday/Wednesday night.
- Much lower chances (20%-30%) for precipitation Friday and Saturday with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 123 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024
This afternoon and evening will have more widespread precipitation, stronger storms, as a low pressure system is moving over the CWA
Since last night, the 850 mb LLJ has been moving more moisture into the region and now that the surface low is in the CWA, wrap-around precipitation is occurring and will continue into the night. CAPE still seems moderate with 1,000-1,500 J/kg and little CIN to hold it back. Shear is fairly weak, with 0-6km shear less than 25 kts across nearly all of the CWA 0-3 CAPE is one of the most impressive parameters for the afternoon with soundings showing 50-150 J/kg ahead of the first wave of precipitation. This setup makes landspouts possible in the early stages of the event. Model guidance is having a difficult time resolving exact placement for any boundaries early this afternoon, but the area most likely for a boundary to set-up will in a north/south orientation and within about 50 miles of the CO/KS border throughout our CWA This boundary would serve as a focal point for any landspout formation.
As the storms mature and the event progress (around 21-3Z time frame), hail will become more of a threat. As the low moves to the eastern side of the CWA, shear will slightly increase (5-15 kts) and more moisture will wrap into the CWA, giving us a higher threat for severe hail. With the weaker shear and warm, moist lower levels, heavy rain could become an issue, causing some concern for flooding potential, mainly southeastern CWA However, due to little rainfall over the previous week and the types of storm formation expected, there is about 15% confidence flooding would occur. More information can be found in the Hydro section below.
The storms will look to grow to the south as the entire system moves to the east. CAMs are showing 2-3 bands of rain forming in the northwestern CWA before moving across the CWA The western storms will be moving quicker than the storms over the eastern CWA By 6Z, majority of the storms should have moved out of the area, but lingering showers through 12-18Z Monday is possible in the far eastern CWA
As the storms begin clearing out, northwesterly winds will pick up, gusts up around 20-25 kts by tomorrow afternoon are expected. Also, as the storms move out overnight, the skies will begin to clear up again from west to east. This will let low temperatures in the west cool into the lower 40s while locations in the east will stay in the 50s tonight. Tomorrow looks to be mostly clear, and despite northerly winds, high temperatures look to warm into the mid 70s.
The mostly clear skies will continue overnight tomorrow and temperatures across the entire Tri-State area will cool into the 40s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 116 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024
Westerly to northwesterly flow will be in place over the area Tuesday as an upper level trough dives southeast across the Bighorns and into portions of Colorado. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid-80s, about 10 degrees above normal in some locations. Ahead of the advancing trough, there will be a potential for showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Tri- State area. Right now, the best chances for shower/storm activity appears to be Tuesday afternoon for areas along and north of Interstate 70 (50-70% chance). Precipitation chances will decrease west to east across the area Tuesday evening into the overnight hours.
Wednesday and Thursday, the upper trough crosses into eastern Nebraska and western Colorado. Temperatures will be slightly cooler both days as a weak cold front moves through the region and cool air filters in. High temperatures will be in the low to mid-70s both days. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms both days as this system moves through the region.
Friday and into to the weekend, we are looking at the potential for a warm up. Uncertainty remains as the pattern becomes more active.
Models show split slow becoming more pronounced Thursday and into the weekend. The northern split extends from West Coast to East Coast, with the upper trough exiting the region to the east. Heading into Friday and the weekend, models diverge significantly, with the GFS bringing a ridge over the area. The ECMWF brings an upper trough over the region for that period of time. There is a non-zero chance for a few isolated showers and storms during this time, however, confidence in this solution is extremely low for the time being.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 600 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024
A period of sub-VFR ceilings is possible at the MCK terminal early Monday morning, otherwise.. VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period at both terminals. Winds will remain light and variable overnight.. becoming northerly at 10-15 knots Monday morning.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 123 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024
The 850 mb LLJ over the past 12 hours has moved ample moisture into central Kansas and the surface low passing over the CWA as this is being written is wrapping around this moisture into the heart of the CWA PWATS are currently about 1 inch to the east of the low and about 2/3 to 4/5 of an inch to the west of the low. As the evening progresses, PWATS are expected to increase.
Mid and Low level RH values will also increase as the column becomes more saturated. MUCAPE looks to range around 500-1,000 J/kg, LCL-EL wind around 20 kts, and Corfidi up/downshear shear vectors are about 10/15 kts respectively. These parameters lead to about 70% confidence that heavy rain will occur, but with a lack of organized shear, confidence lowers that these cells will last very long.
Antecedent conditions are also not favorable for flooding to occur. Nearly all of the CWA has seen less than 1 inch of rain over the past 48 hours, so the ground is ready to soak up the rain. There was a narrow area in northern Wichita county that did receive a little over an inch of rain yesterday, so if a storm could sit over that area for an hour or so, flooding concerns would increase. As mentioned above, general confidence in flooding today is about 15%. This would be localized flooding widespread flooding is not expected.
There will be another chance of excessive rainfall Tue/Wed, but that flooding risk will depend heavily on how well the area dries out tomorrow.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 640 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Another round of showers/thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday with a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall Wednesday/Wednesday night.
- Much lower chances (20%-30%) for precipitation Friday and Saturday with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 123 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024
This afternoon and evening will have more widespread precipitation, stronger storms, as a low pressure system is moving over the CWA
Since last night, the 850 mb LLJ has been moving more moisture into the region and now that the surface low is in the CWA, wrap-around precipitation is occurring and will continue into the night. CAPE still seems moderate with 1,000-1,500 J/kg and little CIN to hold it back. Shear is fairly weak, with 0-6km shear less than 25 kts across nearly all of the CWA 0-3 CAPE is one of the most impressive parameters for the afternoon with soundings showing 50-150 J/kg ahead of the first wave of precipitation. This setup makes landspouts possible in the early stages of the event. Model guidance is having a difficult time resolving exact placement for any boundaries early this afternoon, but the area most likely for a boundary to set-up will in a north/south orientation and within about 50 miles of the CO/KS border throughout our CWA This boundary would serve as a focal point for any landspout formation.
As the storms mature and the event progress (around 21-3Z time frame), hail will become more of a threat. As the low moves to the eastern side of the CWA, shear will slightly increase (5-15 kts) and more moisture will wrap into the CWA, giving us a higher threat for severe hail. With the weaker shear and warm, moist lower levels, heavy rain could become an issue, causing some concern for flooding potential, mainly southeastern CWA However, due to little rainfall over the previous week and the types of storm formation expected, there is about 15% confidence flooding would occur. More information can be found in the Hydro section below.
The storms will look to grow to the south as the entire system moves to the east. CAMs are showing 2-3 bands of rain forming in the northwestern CWA before moving across the CWA The western storms will be moving quicker than the storms over the eastern CWA By 6Z, majority of the storms should have moved out of the area, but lingering showers through 12-18Z Monday is possible in the far eastern CWA
As the storms begin clearing out, northwesterly winds will pick up, gusts up around 20-25 kts by tomorrow afternoon are expected. Also, as the storms move out overnight, the skies will begin to clear up again from west to east. This will let low temperatures in the west cool into the lower 40s while locations in the east will stay in the 50s tonight. Tomorrow looks to be mostly clear, and despite northerly winds, high temperatures look to warm into the mid 70s.
The mostly clear skies will continue overnight tomorrow and temperatures across the entire Tri-State area will cool into the 40s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 116 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024
Westerly to northwesterly flow will be in place over the area Tuesday as an upper level trough dives southeast across the Bighorns and into portions of Colorado. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid-80s, about 10 degrees above normal in some locations. Ahead of the advancing trough, there will be a potential for showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Tri- State area. Right now, the best chances for shower/storm activity appears to be Tuesday afternoon for areas along and north of Interstate 70 (50-70% chance). Precipitation chances will decrease west to east across the area Tuesday evening into the overnight hours.
Wednesday and Thursday, the upper trough crosses into eastern Nebraska and western Colorado. Temperatures will be slightly cooler both days as a weak cold front moves through the region and cool air filters in. High temperatures will be in the low to mid-70s both days. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms both days as this system moves through the region.
Friday and into to the weekend, we are looking at the potential for a warm up. Uncertainty remains as the pattern becomes more active.
Models show split slow becoming more pronounced Thursday and into the weekend. The northern split extends from West Coast to East Coast, with the upper trough exiting the region to the east. Heading into Friday and the weekend, models diverge significantly, with the GFS bringing a ridge over the area. The ECMWF brings an upper trough over the region for that period of time. There is a non-zero chance for a few isolated showers and storms during this time, however, confidence in this solution is extremely low for the time being.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 600 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024
A period of sub-VFR ceilings is possible at the MCK terminal early Monday morning, otherwise.. VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period at both terminals. Winds will remain light and variable overnight.. becoming northerly at 10-15 knots Monday morning.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 123 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024
The 850 mb LLJ over the past 12 hours has moved ample moisture into central Kansas and the surface low passing over the CWA as this is being written is wrapping around this moisture into the heart of the CWA PWATS are currently about 1 inch to the east of the low and about 2/3 to 4/5 of an inch to the west of the low. As the evening progresses, PWATS are expected to increase.
Mid and Low level RH values will also increase as the column becomes more saturated. MUCAPE looks to range around 500-1,000 J/kg, LCL-EL wind around 20 kts, and Corfidi up/downshear shear vectors are about 10/15 kts respectively. These parameters lead to about 70% confidence that heavy rain will occur, but with a lack of organized shear, confidence lowers that these cells will last very long.
Antecedent conditions are also not favorable for flooding to occur. Nearly all of the CWA has seen less than 1 inch of rain over the past 48 hours, so the ground is ready to soak up the rain. There was a narrow area in northern Wichita county that did receive a little over an inch of rain yesterday, so if a storm could sit over that area for an hour or so, flooding concerns would increase. As mentioned above, general confidence in flooding today is about 15%. This would be localized flooding widespread flooding is not expected.
There will be another chance of excessive rainfall Tue/Wed, but that flooding risk will depend heavily on how well the area dries out tomorrow.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Goodland, KS,
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