Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cheyenne Wells, CO
March 19, 2024 6:36 AM CDT (11:36 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:45 AM Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 1:44 PM Moonset 4:25 AM |
Area Discussion for - Goodland, KS
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FXUS63 KGLD 191052 AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 452 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Above normal temperatures continue
- 15% chance of thunderstorms across east Colorado Wednesday afternoon.
- Fire weather conditions may return across Yuma and Kit Carson counties Thursday.
- Pattern change to cooler and potentially precipitation chances late this weekend into the new week. Accumulating snow possible.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 213 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
NW flow is prevailing across the area. Dry air aloft is also leading to a virtually clear sky across the region. WSW winds being present are helping keep temperatures from plummeting as the good majority of the area remains at or above freezing.
A relatively tranquil day looks to be in store as the area remains in between NW flow and a developing system across the SW CONUS. Winds look to turn to the north during the late morning hours but should remain around 10 knots or so. The developing system across the SW looks to advect some warmer temperatures into the region as well as high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s are currently forecast. A little bit of a chilly night is forecast Tuesday into Wednesday as winds won't be as strong as tonight and not from the favorable WSW to help keep temperatures up. Not currently anticipating a complete drop but overnight lows around freezing are currently forecasted for the entire area. Will also be watching a backdoor cold front move in from the east that is from a passing Alberta Clipper system impacting the northern Plains and Great Lakes.
Wednesday, guidance is suggesting moisture around 700mb level to move into the area along the western portion of the front where some mid to low stratus may be possible across Yuma/Dundy counties perhaps down to around the I-70 corridor through late morning Wednesday. I have went ahead and trended temperatures down north of I- 70 due to concerns about this cloud cover; have also trended temperatures down across the east due to being in closer vicinity to the cooler air from the clipper system. If the stratus is a bit thicker or hangs around longer than currently forecasted then locales across the north may still be to warm which is what the NAM suggests. I won't go quite that aggressive with this package but will start the trend downwards into the low to mid 50s for highs across the north and upper 60s south of I-70.
During the afternoon hours a surface convergence boundary looks to develop near the Palmer Divide which may be enough lift to get some high based thunderstorm or shower development. Recent runs of the NamNest and RRFS are on board with at least isolated thunderstorm coverage as around 500 j/kg of MUCAPE looks to be present across east Colorado. I do think the more "aggressive" CAMS currently seem reasonable as there will be additional upslope flow present over the boundary which should help additional lift occur. Severe weather potential looks low to unlikely (less than 5%) but inverted v soundings will be in place which would support the potential for stronger downbursts to occur. Opted to go ahead and introduce 15% pops across eastern Colorado. Would have been a little higher but do have concerns about virga being present as dew points are currently forecast in the 30s. As for the precipitation potential that was introduced last night for Greeley and Wichita counties; guidance tonight has shifted the wave a bit further south which keep any rainfall south of the CWA Have opted to go silent pops for this package in case the wave across the Oklahoma Panhandle shifts north again. There will be moisture advection going on across the area however which may lead to another day of stratus and or fog as we head into Thursday morning.
Thursday, 850-700mb moisture looks to remain in place across the majority of the area during the morning hours. The focus will be on a developing surface low in SE Wyoming which will advect drier and warmer temperatures across western portions of the area and expanding further east throughout the remainder of the day. Near critical fire weather conditions continue to remain possible especially across Yuma and Kit Carson counties as highs in the 70s and a surge of drier air will create RH values in the low to mid teens. The current position of the low looks to remain to far north to lead to critical conditions due to the lack of wind; however will need to watch for any potential shifts in the positioning of the low that would increase the wind. GFS forecast soundings (which normally do handle mixing the best) do show mixing up to 25 mph across east Yuma county and slightly stronger across Washington County(which is closer in proximity to the low). I did blend in some drier dew point guidance as well as I've seen in similar events that dew points in reality are not near low enough as downsloping mixing typically is overdone. As the above mentioned low does move to the east, a wind shift/cold front moves through the area Thursday evening into Friday morning. NAM and GFS also show pressure rises of 5-7mb over 3 hours which should as well support some breezy to gusty winds overnight with the frontal passage.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 315 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Cooler temperatures on Friday with northeast winds behind a cold front associated with a disturbance moving through the northern plains. Highs will be in the 50s. Will quickly transition to a zonal flow Friday night with a shortwave trough moving out of the central Rockies. Latest run of the ECMWF is much wetter than the GFS and previous runs with this disturbance.
Precipitation will start as rain but cannot rule out a rain/snow mix or changeover to snow as temperatures drop into the 20s.
Given antecedent warm temperatures would expect most snow to melt on contact, but may see some light accumulations particularly in the ECMWF scenario.
On Saturday, will transition to a southwesterly flow aloft as strong trough digs into the Great Basin. Highs will range from the 40s in eastern areas to the around 60 in Colorado. Embedded waves in the flow will keep a chance for scattered rain showers going, with best chances probably Saturday night with a more pronounced shortwave. Models suggest it will be mostly rain Saturday night, but as temperatures fall into the 30s will have to watch for perhaps some light freezing rain mainly in southwest Nebraska late Saturday night with temperatures near freezing. The ECMWF does show some light freezing rain in that area, but the GFS is a bit warmer and has only a few light rain showers.
On Sunday, will be watching for a fairly strong late March cold front to move through the area. Models generally show the front moving through around mid day. Temperatures ahead of the front will be in the 60s and 70s with 40s and 50s behind it. There may be short window for isolated thunderstorms along the front in eastern areas in the afternoon, but instability is forecast to be rather weak, so not expecting severe storms. If the front is faster, as shown by the ECMWF, then storms will not develop in our area. Colder air filters in Sunday night with temperatures dropping into the teens and 20s and brisk northerly winds.
Light snow likely to develop with approach of the trough from the west. Models generally show an inch or two possible, but also show some banding occurring and locally higher amounts in some very small areas. Confidence in any banding is low at this time range.
Monday will be colder with the chance for light snow continuing as the upper trough axis moves through. Some timing differences crop up between the models with the ECMWF ending the snow sooner than the GFS and mostly confined to eastern areas, but the GFS showing a wide swath of light snow across the area. A bit breezy Monday morning, but winds diminishing in the afternoon. Any lingering snow should end Monday night. Highs will be in the 30s and lows in the teens.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 446 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions remain forecasted for each terminal for this TAF period. Winds will shift to the north at around 15 knots before becoming more northeasterly and then finally coming back around to the ESE towards the end of the period. Am watching the potential for some increase in stratus coverage towards sunrise Wednesday with ceilings around 080-100 in spots due to a backdoor cold front moving across the area; as of right now will leave the coverage at FEW.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 452 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Above normal temperatures continue
- 15% chance of thunderstorms across east Colorado Wednesday afternoon.
- Fire weather conditions may return across Yuma and Kit Carson counties Thursday.
- Pattern change to cooler and potentially precipitation chances late this weekend into the new week. Accumulating snow possible.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 213 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
NW flow is prevailing across the area. Dry air aloft is also leading to a virtually clear sky across the region. WSW winds being present are helping keep temperatures from plummeting as the good majority of the area remains at or above freezing.
A relatively tranquil day looks to be in store as the area remains in between NW flow and a developing system across the SW CONUS. Winds look to turn to the north during the late morning hours but should remain around 10 knots or so. The developing system across the SW looks to advect some warmer temperatures into the region as well as high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s are currently forecast. A little bit of a chilly night is forecast Tuesday into Wednesday as winds won't be as strong as tonight and not from the favorable WSW to help keep temperatures up. Not currently anticipating a complete drop but overnight lows around freezing are currently forecasted for the entire area. Will also be watching a backdoor cold front move in from the east that is from a passing Alberta Clipper system impacting the northern Plains and Great Lakes.
Wednesday, guidance is suggesting moisture around 700mb level to move into the area along the western portion of the front where some mid to low stratus may be possible across Yuma/Dundy counties perhaps down to around the I-70 corridor through late morning Wednesday. I have went ahead and trended temperatures down north of I- 70 due to concerns about this cloud cover; have also trended temperatures down across the east due to being in closer vicinity to the cooler air from the clipper system. If the stratus is a bit thicker or hangs around longer than currently forecasted then locales across the north may still be to warm which is what the NAM suggests. I won't go quite that aggressive with this package but will start the trend downwards into the low to mid 50s for highs across the north and upper 60s south of I-70.
During the afternoon hours a surface convergence boundary looks to develop near the Palmer Divide which may be enough lift to get some high based thunderstorm or shower development. Recent runs of the NamNest and RRFS are on board with at least isolated thunderstorm coverage as around 500 j/kg of MUCAPE looks to be present across east Colorado. I do think the more "aggressive" CAMS currently seem reasonable as there will be additional upslope flow present over the boundary which should help additional lift occur. Severe weather potential looks low to unlikely (less than 5%) but inverted v soundings will be in place which would support the potential for stronger downbursts to occur. Opted to go ahead and introduce 15% pops across eastern Colorado. Would have been a little higher but do have concerns about virga being present as dew points are currently forecast in the 30s. As for the precipitation potential that was introduced last night for Greeley and Wichita counties; guidance tonight has shifted the wave a bit further south which keep any rainfall south of the CWA Have opted to go silent pops for this package in case the wave across the Oklahoma Panhandle shifts north again. There will be moisture advection going on across the area however which may lead to another day of stratus and or fog as we head into Thursday morning.
Thursday, 850-700mb moisture looks to remain in place across the majority of the area during the morning hours. The focus will be on a developing surface low in SE Wyoming which will advect drier and warmer temperatures across western portions of the area and expanding further east throughout the remainder of the day. Near critical fire weather conditions continue to remain possible especially across Yuma and Kit Carson counties as highs in the 70s and a surge of drier air will create RH values in the low to mid teens. The current position of the low looks to remain to far north to lead to critical conditions due to the lack of wind; however will need to watch for any potential shifts in the positioning of the low that would increase the wind. GFS forecast soundings (which normally do handle mixing the best) do show mixing up to 25 mph across east Yuma county and slightly stronger across Washington County(which is closer in proximity to the low). I did blend in some drier dew point guidance as well as I've seen in similar events that dew points in reality are not near low enough as downsloping mixing typically is overdone. As the above mentioned low does move to the east, a wind shift/cold front moves through the area Thursday evening into Friday morning. NAM and GFS also show pressure rises of 5-7mb over 3 hours which should as well support some breezy to gusty winds overnight with the frontal passage.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 315 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Cooler temperatures on Friday with northeast winds behind a cold front associated with a disturbance moving through the northern plains. Highs will be in the 50s. Will quickly transition to a zonal flow Friday night with a shortwave trough moving out of the central Rockies. Latest run of the ECMWF is much wetter than the GFS and previous runs with this disturbance.
Precipitation will start as rain but cannot rule out a rain/snow mix or changeover to snow as temperatures drop into the 20s.
Given antecedent warm temperatures would expect most snow to melt on contact, but may see some light accumulations particularly in the ECMWF scenario.
On Saturday, will transition to a southwesterly flow aloft as strong trough digs into the Great Basin. Highs will range from the 40s in eastern areas to the around 60 in Colorado. Embedded waves in the flow will keep a chance for scattered rain showers going, with best chances probably Saturday night with a more pronounced shortwave. Models suggest it will be mostly rain Saturday night, but as temperatures fall into the 30s will have to watch for perhaps some light freezing rain mainly in southwest Nebraska late Saturday night with temperatures near freezing. The ECMWF does show some light freezing rain in that area, but the GFS is a bit warmer and has only a few light rain showers.
On Sunday, will be watching for a fairly strong late March cold front to move through the area. Models generally show the front moving through around mid day. Temperatures ahead of the front will be in the 60s and 70s with 40s and 50s behind it. There may be short window for isolated thunderstorms along the front in eastern areas in the afternoon, but instability is forecast to be rather weak, so not expecting severe storms. If the front is faster, as shown by the ECMWF, then storms will not develop in our area. Colder air filters in Sunday night with temperatures dropping into the teens and 20s and brisk northerly winds.
Light snow likely to develop with approach of the trough from the west. Models generally show an inch or two possible, but also show some banding occurring and locally higher amounts in some very small areas. Confidence in any banding is low at this time range.
Monday will be colder with the chance for light snow continuing as the upper trough axis moves through. Some timing differences crop up between the models with the ECMWF ending the snow sooner than the GFS and mostly confined to eastern areas, but the GFS showing a wide swath of light snow across the area. A bit breezy Monday morning, but winds diminishing in the afternoon. Any lingering snow should end Monday night. Highs will be in the 30s and lows in the teens.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 446 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions remain forecasted for each terminal for this TAF period. Winds will shift to the north at around 15 knots before becoming more northeasterly and then finally coming back around to the ESE towards the end of the period. Am watching the potential for some increase in stratus coverage towards sunrise Wednesday with ceilings around 080-100 in spots due to a backdoor cold front moving across the area; as of right now will leave the coverage at FEW.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KITR KIT CARSON COUNTY,CO | 24 sm | 43 min | W 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 30.03 |
Goodland, KS,
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