Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheyenne Wells, CO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 9:11PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 5:53 PM CDT (22:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:36AMMoonset 11:54PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheyenne Wells, CO
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location: 38.89, -102.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Goodland, KS
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Fxus63 kgld 282028
afdgld
area forecast discussion
national weather service goodland ks
228 pm mdt Wed jun 28 2017

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 228 pm mdt Wed jun 28 2017
latest upper air analysis shows a deepening short wave trough over
central colorado. Satellite imagery shows cumulus clouds increasing
in coverage over the mountains, with some storms developing on the
plains. At the surface the cold front from this morning was
difficult to find due to the gradual cooling temperatures behind the
pre-frontal trough extending from near liberal northeast to near
hays. The dry line was running parallel along the pre-frontal
trough.

For the rest of the afternoon, isolated thunderstorms will continue
to develop over eastern colorado near the deepening upper level
short wave trough and where weak surface convergence will occur as a
surface low deepens. The storms will increase in coverage due to
the short wave trough deepening. Most of these storms are not
expected to become severe due to cinh capping off any mixed layer or
surface cape. However if storms develop as far south as i-70 or
further south, they may become severe due to very little cinh in
place there.

This evening the upper level short wave trough will continue to
deepen as it moves east. Storms developing ahead of it will
increase in coverage as they move out of colorado and into higher
cape in kansas. As the storms move east into higher instability the
threat for large hail will increase. Meanwhile elevated CAPE will
develop near the warm front and nose of the low level jet over the
southeast part of the forecast area. As the upper level short wave
trough progresses east, should see a second group of storms develop
along the warm front which will also coincide with an axis of
higher theta-e. Am anticipating hail up to hen egg size with these
storms, although cannot rule out hail larger than that east of
highway 83. Severe winds will be possible with any storms that move
into kansas. Looking at 0-1 and 0-3 km helicity and ehi, there is a
potential for a tornado to develop in the vicinity of the warm front
before midnight ct. Have low confidence of this occurring, but
still bears mentioning. However if severe weather is going to occur
it will be mainly in northwest kansas in the evening.

As the evening progresses the two groups of storms should merge into
a MCS or some sort of cluster before the overnight hours. As the
storms merge into more a cluster, the size of the hail should become
smaller with severe winds becoming more of a threat along with heavy
rainfall. Don't have the confidence to issue a flood watch, since
the storm complex should be moving fast enough to negate flooding.

During the overnight hours the elevated CAPE shifts north into
nebraska. This may cause the severe thunderstorm activity to
transition north as the storm complex moves east. However when the
cape axis shifts north it may be behind the storm complex. Generally
the later past midnight the lower the chance for large hail to occur
as the CAPE axis shifts north of the forecast area.

Thursday looks like another repeat of today with storms forming in
eastern colorado ahead of a deepening upper level short wave trough.

Isolated storms should begin to form in the early afternoon then
increase in coverage over east central colorado as they move east
later in the afternoon. Main threat with these storms will be
large hail and damaging winds.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 127 pm mdt Wed jun 28 2017
at the start of this extended period the models are showing an
amplified upper level trough moves out of the central canada with an
associated cold front and into the high plains on Thursday. This
system looks to have enough instability to support the development
of super cell activity and possible MCS development over the region
Thursday night and into early Friday morning. There is still a
question in regard to what impact this system will have on the local
area as the track could shift to the south or east of our cwa. After
frontal passage, there will still be some lingering showers or weak
thunderstorms on Friday with temperatures reaching the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

Over the weekend, an increase in stable air mass and large scale
subsidence should support dry conditions on Saturday and into the
afternoon on Sunday. High temperatures will start out in the middle
80s on Saturday followed by the lowers to middle 90s on Sunday. Late
Sunday afternoon a chance of showers and thunderstorms return to the
local area as a surface trough combined with an upper level
shortwave approaches the area from the west.

Next week high temperatures look to maintain in the lower to middle
90s. Upper level troughs will pass over the local area on Monday and
will aid in producing another afternoon and evening of showers and
thunderstorms. As for the 4th of july, and the rest of this extended
period, the blended model is showing dry conditions. At this time i
see no reason to change anything.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1132 am mdt Wed jun 28 2017
vfr conditions forecast for the tafs. Focus will be on the timing
of storms for both sites today tonight. For kgld anticipate
isolated storms moving out of co late this afternoon will become
more numerous during the late evening. Reduced visibility in the
heavy rainfall and strong winds will be likely as any storms move
over the site. Kmck will be on the north edge of the better
chances for storm activity. Reduced visibility from the heavy
rainfall and strong winds can also be expected. Both sites could
receive hail from these storms.

Gld watches warnings advisories
Ks... None.

Co... None.

Ne... None.

Short term... Jtl
long term... Bw
aviation... Jtl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington - Carson County Airport, CO24 mi60 minESE 10 G 1610.00 miFair90°F45°F21%1004.1 hPa

Wind History from ITR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10
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N7E7E4N7N8CalmNW6NW7N13N15N13N964NE64E10
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1 day agoE12E12E20
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----NW9
2 days agoE14E15E11E8SE7SE5SE6S5S5S6S5S6S7SW9SW11SW10SW8W6SW4CalmE6CalmSE12
G18
E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Goodland, KS (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Goodland, KS
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.