Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cheyenne Wells, CO
May 15, 2024 10:26 AM CDT (15:26 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:30 AM Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 12:30 PM Moonset 2:01 AM |
FXUS63 KGLD 151000 AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 400 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20%-30%)
continue today and tonight.
- Dry weather Thursday through the day Saturday with warming temperatures.
- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024
Today-tonight...an upper level trough axis is forecast to slowly move through the area through the period. A blend of NAM/GFS/ECMWF 850-500mb relative humidity forecasts suggest a mid level dry slot will cover much of the area today with slightly better chances for showers and thunderstorms across western Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado tonight. Even with slightly better moisture available from 850-700mb, there isnt much lift despite some weak instability and modest low level lapse rates. All in all, we'll have 20%-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms for various parts of the forecast area today and tonight. The threat for severe weather looks rather low. Its possible a storm or two could have hail up to an inch and wind gusts to 50 mph but confidence in that is rather low. If that were to happen, it would be during the time of peak heating through about sunset. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s with low temperatures in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
Thursday-Thursday night...the above mentioned area of sufficient moisture in the 850-500mb layer over the far western/southwestern parts of the forecast area Wednesday will slide to the southeast during the day, supporting a 20% chance for thunderstorms across Greeley and Wichita counties with dry weather for the entire area during the night. High temperatures will be in the lower to upper 70s with low temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s.
Friday-Friday night...upper level ridging moves into the area ahead of an upper level trough moving into the northern plains. The associated 850mb thermal ridge moves over the area, supporting high temperatures in the lower to upper 80s. There is a bit of moisture in the 700-500mb layer moving through the area during the night and could support 20% chances for showers/thunderstorms. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 50s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 245 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024
Main concern during this period will be chances for thunderstorms, with a risk for severe storms Sunday and Monday.
Cold front moves through early Saturday morning with post frontal upslope regime by Saturday afternoon. Scattered storms will develop in eastern Colorado, but instability is very limited and will probably only see a few isolated showers or storms from the remnants Saturday night. By Sunday, will see fairly decent low level moisture return which results in moderate instability by the afternoon. Models show a surface trough/dry line near the Kansas/Colorado border at 18z that rapidly moves east in the afternoon. There is a weak wave moving through the southwest flow aloft which will probably be enough to initiate convection on the trough/dry line. Eastern areas appear to be the favored area in the latest model runs for thunderstorms, some of which may be severe with deep layer shear of around 40 kts in addition to the instability. On Monday a cold front enters the area and will be the focus for convection.
A stronger upper level shortwave will also add additional lift.
Moderate instability is forecast along/ahead of the front and deep layer shear will be in excess of 50 kts, setting the stage for another risk of severe storms with all modes possible given those parameters and a sharp frontal boundary. May get a break from the convection on Tuesday with a shortwave ridge moving in and little to no instability currently forecast.
Temperatures through the period will be above normal with highs mainly in the 80s and lows mainly in the 50s.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024
KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A northwest wind under 10kts at taf issuance will increase a bit from 15z-00z with gusts up to 20kts from the north. Tonight, northerly winds around 11kts back to the northwest and decrease below 10kts. Showers/thunderstorms are currently not expected to be in the vicinity or over the terminal.
KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light northwest wind at taf issuance will veer to the north around 10kts from 00z-07z, then back to the northwest at speeds around 6kts through the rest of the taf period. There is low confidence in showers/thunderstorms directly impacting the terminal but they (rain showers) could be in the vicinity for much of the period.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 400 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20%-30%)
continue today and tonight.
- Dry weather Thursday through the day Saturday with warming temperatures.
- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024
Today-tonight...an upper level trough axis is forecast to slowly move through the area through the period. A blend of NAM/GFS/ECMWF 850-500mb relative humidity forecasts suggest a mid level dry slot will cover much of the area today with slightly better chances for showers and thunderstorms across western Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado tonight. Even with slightly better moisture available from 850-700mb, there isnt much lift despite some weak instability and modest low level lapse rates. All in all, we'll have 20%-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms for various parts of the forecast area today and tonight. The threat for severe weather looks rather low. Its possible a storm or two could have hail up to an inch and wind gusts to 50 mph but confidence in that is rather low. If that were to happen, it would be during the time of peak heating through about sunset. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s with low temperatures in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
Thursday-Thursday night...the above mentioned area of sufficient moisture in the 850-500mb layer over the far western/southwestern parts of the forecast area Wednesday will slide to the southeast during the day, supporting a 20% chance for thunderstorms across Greeley and Wichita counties with dry weather for the entire area during the night. High temperatures will be in the lower to upper 70s with low temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s.
Friday-Friday night...upper level ridging moves into the area ahead of an upper level trough moving into the northern plains. The associated 850mb thermal ridge moves over the area, supporting high temperatures in the lower to upper 80s. There is a bit of moisture in the 700-500mb layer moving through the area during the night and could support 20% chances for showers/thunderstorms. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 50s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 245 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024
Main concern during this period will be chances for thunderstorms, with a risk for severe storms Sunday and Monday.
Cold front moves through early Saturday morning with post frontal upslope regime by Saturday afternoon. Scattered storms will develop in eastern Colorado, but instability is very limited and will probably only see a few isolated showers or storms from the remnants Saturday night. By Sunday, will see fairly decent low level moisture return which results in moderate instability by the afternoon. Models show a surface trough/dry line near the Kansas/Colorado border at 18z that rapidly moves east in the afternoon. There is a weak wave moving through the southwest flow aloft which will probably be enough to initiate convection on the trough/dry line. Eastern areas appear to be the favored area in the latest model runs for thunderstorms, some of which may be severe with deep layer shear of around 40 kts in addition to the instability. On Monday a cold front enters the area and will be the focus for convection.
A stronger upper level shortwave will also add additional lift.
Moderate instability is forecast along/ahead of the front and deep layer shear will be in excess of 50 kts, setting the stage for another risk of severe storms with all modes possible given those parameters and a sharp frontal boundary. May get a break from the convection on Tuesday with a shortwave ridge moving in and little to no instability currently forecast.
Temperatures through the period will be above normal with highs mainly in the 80s and lows mainly in the 50s.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024
KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A northwest wind under 10kts at taf issuance will increase a bit from 15z-00z with gusts up to 20kts from the north. Tonight, northerly winds around 11kts back to the northwest and decrease below 10kts. Showers/thunderstorms are currently not expected to be in the vicinity or over the terminal.
KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light northwest wind at taf issuance will veer to the north around 10kts from 00z-07z, then back to the northwest at speeds around 6kts through the rest of the taf period. There is low confidence in showers/thunderstorms directly impacting the terminal but they (rain showers) could be in the vicinity for much of the period.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KITR KIT CARSON COUNTY,CO | 24 sm | 19 min | N 15G21 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 61°F | 50°F | 68% | 29.96 |
Goodland, KS,
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