Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Solomon, KS
March 19, 2024 6:05 AM CDT (11:05 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:32 AM Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 1:23 PM Moonset 4:05 AM |
Area Discussion for - Wichita, KS
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FXUS63 KICT 190804 AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 304 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Unseasonably warm temperatures today with increasing rain chances across far southern KS Wed evening through Thursday.
- Another round of rain for late Friday night into Saturday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Water vapor imagery currently shows northwest flow over the Plains with an upper trough about to depart the Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile, an upper low continues to linger over Southern CA. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Arklatex region with a trough from MN into Western Nebraska.
Excellent downslope conditions will result in high temps today 10 to 15 degrees above normal as the top out in the low and mid 70s. Weak surface trough will slide into central KS this afternoon and will flip winds around to the north and northeast but is not expected to have an affect on temps. Upper low over Southern CA will start to slide east tonight into Wed. Rainfall chances are expected to increase early Wed evening as 850-700mb moisture transport ramps-up ahead of the upper impulse. Still looking like the far southern portions of our forecast area will have the best chance to see rainfall Wed night-Thu, with high confidence we are not looking at any strong/severe storms or heavy rainfall. By 00z Fri, upper impulse will be passing over the Arklatex region and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Fri morning.
Northwest flow over the Plains will be short-lived as it flattens out ahead of our next shortwave, set to move onshore over the Pacific Northwest by early Sat morning. Mid level theta-e advection will increase Fri night and will result in an area of showers developing over the High Plains and moving out across central KS Sat. There is good model agreement that by 12z Sun very strong mid/upper southwest flow will be in place from the Desert Southwest through the Southern Plains with a positively oriented shortwave trough from the Great Basin into Central/Southern CA, with another impulse across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. This setup will bring a very strong low level jet across the Plains and very strong southerly winds on Sun for the eastern half of KS. A dryline is also expected to setup across Western KS however, at this time, low level moisture looks fairly meager. So at this point, not looking at any kind of widespread daytime convection on Sun and feel our best storm chances should arrive when the strong cold front moves through Sun night. The main threat on Sun will likely be dangerous fire weather conditions.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.
Surface high pressure will remain extended from the Southern Plains through the Tennessee Valley for today which will allow for southwest winds and clear skies. A weak surface trough will move into central KS late this afternoon and will flip winds around to the north and northeast, but will remain on the light side.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low until the weekend.
Even through low levels will remain dry this afternoon, winds will not be high enough to cause significant fire concerns.
Gusty east and northeast winds will be in place for Wed afternoon but slightly cooler temps will keep RH values in check. The next dangerous fire weather day looks to arrive Sun, when very strong southwest winds will be in place. At this point, confidence is high that very high grassland fire danger will be in place on Sun.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 304 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Unseasonably warm temperatures today with increasing rain chances across far southern KS Wed evening through Thursday.
- Another round of rain for late Friday night into Saturday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Water vapor imagery currently shows northwest flow over the Plains with an upper trough about to depart the Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile, an upper low continues to linger over Southern CA. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Arklatex region with a trough from MN into Western Nebraska.
Excellent downslope conditions will result in high temps today 10 to 15 degrees above normal as the top out in the low and mid 70s. Weak surface trough will slide into central KS this afternoon and will flip winds around to the north and northeast but is not expected to have an affect on temps. Upper low over Southern CA will start to slide east tonight into Wed. Rainfall chances are expected to increase early Wed evening as 850-700mb moisture transport ramps-up ahead of the upper impulse. Still looking like the far southern portions of our forecast area will have the best chance to see rainfall Wed night-Thu, with high confidence we are not looking at any strong/severe storms or heavy rainfall. By 00z Fri, upper impulse will be passing over the Arklatex region and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Fri morning.
Northwest flow over the Plains will be short-lived as it flattens out ahead of our next shortwave, set to move onshore over the Pacific Northwest by early Sat morning. Mid level theta-e advection will increase Fri night and will result in an area of showers developing over the High Plains and moving out across central KS Sat. There is good model agreement that by 12z Sun very strong mid/upper southwest flow will be in place from the Desert Southwest through the Southern Plains with a positively oriented shortwave trough from the Great Basin into Central/Southern CA, with another impulse across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. This setup will bring a very strong low level jet across the Plains and very strong southerly winds on Sun for the eastern half of KS. A dryline is also expected to setup across Western KS however, at this time, low level moisture looks fairly meager. So at this point, not looking at any kind of widespread daytime convection on Sun and feel our best storm chances should arrive when the strong cold front moves through Sun night. The main threat on Sun will likely be dangerous fire weather conditions.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.
Surface high pressure will remain extended from the Southern Plains through the Tennessee Valley for today which will allow for southwest winds and clear skies. A weak surface trough will move into central KS late this afternoon and will flip winds around to the north and northeast, but will remain on the light side.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low until the weekend.
Even through low levels will remain dry this afternoon, winds will not be high enough to cause significant fire concerns.
Gusty east and northeast winds will be in place for Wed afternoon but slightly cooler temps will keep RH values in check. The next dangerous fire weather day looks to arrive Sun, when very strong southwest winds will be in place. At this point, confidence is high that very high grassland fire danger will be in place on Sun.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KSLN SALINA RGNL,KS | 14 sm | 12 min | SSW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 39°F | 25°F | 56% | 29.98 |
Topeka, KS,
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