Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 3:58 AM   Moonset 4:51 PM

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FXUS63 KICT 051125 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 625 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Confidence has increased in a severe weather outbreak on Monday afternoon and Monday night.

- Showers with embedded thunderstorms over southern Kansas this morning while lingering across parts of southeast Kansas through much of the afternoon.

- A strong or severe storm may develop over far southeast Kansas on Wednesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A shortwave trough lifting northeast over the Southern Plains was evident on moisture channel imagery and RAP analysis late this evening. As this system continues moving northeastward we may see some showers with embedded storms impact southern Kansas this morning while portions of southeast Kansas may have some lingering activity into the afternoon hours. As the previous forecaster noted, poor lapse rates and marginal instability will preclude strong or severe storms today.

As we move into Monday, a vigorous mid/upper trough over Northern California tonight is progged to pivot eastward over the Central Great Basin/Northern Intermountain area on Sunday and into the Rockies Sunday night. This trough will then emerge negatively tilted across the Central and Northern Plains on Monday. The left exit region of a 120kt H25 jet is progged to nose into the Southern and Central Plains late in the day with large H5 height falls and increasing large-scale forcing for ascent developing downstream in diffluent mid/upper flow. The cap is progged to weaken in the 19-20Z window with the initial development over central and northern Kansas as the lead wave lifts rapidly northeastward into the Northern Plains. The initial storm mode in central and northern KS may be more linear with the initial development as the upper jet/deep layer shear vectors are oriented more poleward similar to the dryline position. But as you move southward into southern Kansas and especially Oklahoma, a more discrete mode may be favored during the late afternoon and evening hours in the 22Z-08Z timeframe as the westerly mid/upper jet overspreads the area. A strengthening LLJ during the evening hours will result in elongated cyclonically curved hodographs and this is when we expect to have the best potential for discrete supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong. The GFS is much more progressive mixing the dryline eastward and bringing an end to pcpn by 06Z but the other deterministic models would support a slower scenario which was favored.

A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area on Tuesday as the mid/upper trough lifts over the Northern Plains with westerly flow developing over the Central Plains. Dry and mild conditions are anticipated with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

The mid/upper trough over the Northern Plains will propagate south and eastward arriving back over the Central Plains late on Wed. Sfc cyclogenesis in eastern OK may allow for some moisture return into southeast KS where a round of storms could be possible during the afternoon hours. Better chances may remain just south and east of the area but it'll be hard to rule out a brief strong or severe storm in far southeast KS on Wed afternoon.

Thu-Sat...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated once again on Thu with another frontal boundary settling south across the area.
Most areas are expected to remain dry with seasonable highs in the low 70s anticipated. A subtle shortwave trough is progged to rotate over the area on Friday as northwest mid/upper flow develops in it's wake but a dry forecast will remain in place with seasonable temperatures anticipated. As we move into the beginning of the weekend, we'll continue to see northwest mid/upper flow across the Central Plains with seasonably mild temperatures and dry weather conditions anticipated.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Numerous showers and a embedded storms will affect southern Kansas and linger the longest over southeast Kansas for this morning into the afternoon hours. Low cigs in the MVFR category will overspread mainly southern Kansas today. Low level moisture will begin to increase later tonight which looks to drop the low clouds in the IFR category overnight.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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