Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 3:41 AM   Moonset 3:44 PM

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FXUS61 KILN 041049 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 649 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm and moist airmass will remain in place across the region into the middle part of next week, leading to occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
Mid level short wave energy will lift northeast across the mid Ohio Valley through the day. Forcing isn't terribly great, but in a moist airmass, this has been enough to maintain scattered shower activity across southeast portions of our area so far this morning. Flow aloft is very light, so this activity will very slowly pivot up across mainly eastern portions of our area through mid morning.

As we head through late morning and into this afternoon, some weak instability will develop as afternoon highs push into the mid to possibly upper 70s. This will allow for a continuation of occasional showers along with a chance for thunderstorms. Given the light flow and general lack of deeper shear, the overall severe threat will be low. However, with PWs up around 1.5 inches and the slow storm movement, some heavier downpours will be possible today.

SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
As we lose the daytime heating and the mid level short wave moves off to our northeast, expect an overall decreasing trend in pcpn this evening and into the overnight hours. Lows tonight will mostly be in the lower 60s.

Another mid level short wave will move east across the Great Lakes region on Sunday. An associated weak surface wave will move across the southern Great Lakes while a trailing weak cold front moves east across our area during the day on Sunday. This will lead to additional chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially across eastern portions of our fa Sunday afternoon.
With a little better deep layer shear, a few strong to severe storms may be possible across our eastern areas Sunday afternoon. The main severe threat would be damaging winds.
Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 70s northwest to around 80 degrees in our southeast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A strong surface high over MI will push drier air into the northern Ohio Valley behind a departing cold front. A s/w undercutting a mean H5 ridge will move east and into the Ohio Valley on Monday. The earlier cold front will have draped w-e through southern CWA Monday, and then begin to lift northeastward as a warm front overnight. The region will be warm-sectored on Tuesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected with daytime heating. Earlier showers with embedded thunderstorms on Monday/overnight look to be triggered by the surface front.

Tuesday night, warm sector showers will scatter out as a convective line works in from the west ahead of a H5 s/w and trailing the exiting upper ridge. This looks to be behaving as a cold front, but the only front mildly shown in guidance is a shift from the highest moisture on Tuesday to slightly drier air (back to what has been seen) overnight.

A brief drying on Wednesday will change after daytime as strong southwest flow brings a continued feed of deep moisture that will be wrung out overnight. This will be the most prominent rainfall period in the extended forecast. While some showers may linger into Thursday/Thursday evening ahead of a H5 trough, the region should be fairly worked-over enough to where upper level lift will not overcome an expected stable airmass behind Wed night's rain.

Low chance pops continue through the forecast but the overall end of the period beginning Thursday evening looks to be dry and cooler.
Cooler to the extent that from Thursday night through Saturday it will be near seasonal normals. Beginning with a brief cooling on Monday, temperatures will warm through Wednesday and cool through the remainder of the period.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A weak surface low pressure system will lift northeast across the area this morning. This will lead to fairly widespread showers across central Ohio over the next few hours with isolated showers elsewhere across the area. Cigs continue to vary significantly this morning, ranging from LIFR in spots to VFR in other areas. Will continue to hedge with prevailing MVFR cigs through the morning hours along with some tempo IFR cigs.
Areas of MVFR BR will also persist through the morning hours.

As we begin to destabilize this afternoon, cigs will trend up into VFR and scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected.
With a moist airmass in place, some locally heavy downpours will be possible with some of the thunderstorms this afternoon.
This activity should taper off heading into this evening with mainly dry conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF period. However, cigs will trend back down into MVFR later tonight and into Sunday morning.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times each day from Sunday through Wednesday. MVFR conditions are possible Monday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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