Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oakbrook, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:58 AM EDT (05:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:28AMMoonset 4:10PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KY
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location: 38.93, -84.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 170044
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
844 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017

Synopsis
As surface low pressure moves into the great lakes, increasing
southerly flow will bring warmth and moisture into the ohio
valley tonight into Thursday. A cold front will move into the
area later on Thursday, bringing a chance of showers and storms
during the afternoon. Drier and cooler conditions are expected
on Friday, as high pressure moves into the area.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Of course the showers that were not supposed to reach
thunderstorm strength have decided to lay out some cg strikes,
so forecast has been updated to reflect this in the singular
storm between dayton and cincinnati. Overall trend for this
should be to maximize in the next 1 2 hour to hour and then fall
apart later this evening. After this time, the focus will fall
on the convective complex currently in southern illinois that
will skirt into northeast ohio late tonight, more towards
daybreak.

Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s, close to current
dewpoints that are running in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
The low pressure system moving into the northern great lakes
is forecast to more or less hold its intensity, rather than
deepening or weakening, as it progresses forward. Mean wsw flow
aloft will align over the ohio valley as this low moves
northwest of the area, with increasing southerly flow building
into the region. This will lead most notably to a further
increase in moisture -- with surface dewpoints climbing into the
lower to middle 70s, and precipitable water values increasing to
near or slightly above 2". Conditions to start the morning will
likely be more dry than wet (despite some solutions that appear
overdone from the 12z GFS nam) but convection should begin to
develop relatively freely by late morning and into the early
afternoon.

It would be easy to say that the incoming cold front will drive
the convective forecast for the day, but it is not that simple.

Since the surface low is not deepening, the orientation of the
front actually becomes slightly less favorable with time, and
there is no hard gradient in wind direction or theta-e to pin a
timing forecast on. Rather, a pre-frontal trough or general
convergence will help to organize (or semi-organize) storms
before and during peak heating, before downstream propagation
takes over later in the day. With the actual cold front not
moving through until late, a few showers may persist into the
late night, though waning (or used-up) instability will limit
the strength of this convection.

In terms of potential hazards during the afternoon storms, both
shear and instability look decent but not spectacular. While
there is some turning in the low levels, overall bulk shear
values are around 30-35 knots at 0-6km, closer to the higher end
of that range in the northwestern iln cwa. MLCAPE values should
be able to reach 1500 j kg, at least in pockets, but the
increasing moisture aloft raises cloud concerns that could limit
stronger heating. While this scenario could support a few strong
to severe storms, the threat appears marginal overall. The going
hwo mention appears sufficient, so no changes will be made.

The amount of moisture in the atmosphere will support heavy
rain, but the generally-progressive flow should keep flash
flood issues localized rather than systemic.

Pops were increased to 70 percent for the entire cwa, timed
across the CWA from 18z to 00z, with somewhat-generous gradients
of lesser pop values on either side of the peak. No big changes
to the temperature forecasts for tomorrow or tomorrow night,
allowing for mid 80s during the afternoon and upper 60s to
around 70 by early Friday morning.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Models continue to adjust their timing of cold frontal passage and
convection Thursday night into Friday morning. Latest runs have come
into good agreement on a slightly quicker solution, which now leaves
the fa dry at 12z Friday as the pcpn is shunted off just E of the
area. Wly flow behind the front should bring lower dewpoints and
more stable air, so dried out Friday.

H5 S W is still advertised to swing through the great lakes on
Saturday, but the amount of pcpn it brings is not certain. Went with
chance pops across the north, tapering down to slight chance in the
south.

As the S W pulls away Saturday night, high pressure builds in at the
surface. It will keep the region dry both days. By Tuesday, models
drop energy into the region from the great lakes, bringing scattered
thunderstorms. The GFS is quicker with the return of the pcpn than
the ECMWF or the canadian hemispheric as it brings QPF in by 12z
Tuesday. Decided to go with a blend of the extended, so brought 20
pops into the west. Convection should develop ahead of the front on
Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Pops should be decreasing from the nw
to SE on Wednesday.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
Very isolated showers over the region will likely not affect
the TAF sites this evening but will also continue to fire
through the evening hours and will need to be monitored. Few cu
clouds 5-6kft this evening will have a higher cirrus and then
dissipate as mid level as deck around 10kft precedes the next
round of showers that are currently in southern illinois.

Warm front lifting north through the upper midwest will have
this area of showers with embedded thunderstorms clip the dayton
area late tonight. As the focus of the showers shears out,
activity will be scattered and then re-gain focus in the
afternoon along a convergent boundary underneath a mid level
vorticity maxima. More storms will be found tomorrow afternoon
and could affect all TAF sites.

Until storms physically reach a terminal, maximizing in the
afternoon tomorrow, conditions will remainVFR.

Outlook... Thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and
night.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Hatzos
near term... Franks
short term... Hatzos
long term... Sites
aviation... Franks


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY9 mi67 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F73°F91%1014.1 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH20 mi66 minSSW 610.00 miFair76°F73°F91%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from CVG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm6S5SW45SW3S34W4SW6S10S5S5S3S4S6S7
1 day agoCalmCalmNW3CalmNW6CalmW3N3NW5W5W634CalmW9W4W8W6W4W3W3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE3E4E3E4SE4E4E4SE4SE7S10S9S6S4S6S7S9S8SW6CalmS4SW3SW3W3SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.