Marine Weather and Tides
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
|Sunrise 6:53AM||Sunset 8:31PM||Thursday August 17, 2017 1:58 AM EDT (05:58 UTC)||Moonrise 1:28AM||Moonset 4:10PM||Illumination 26%|
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kiln 170044|
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
844 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017
As surface low pressure moves into the great lakes, increasing
southerly flow will bring warmth and moisture into the ohio
valley tonight into Thursday. A cold front will move into the
area later on Thursday, bringing a chance of showers and storms
during the afternoon. Drier and cooler conditions are expected
on Friday, as high pressure moves into the area.
Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Of course the showers that were not supposed to reach
thunderstorm strength have decided to lay out some cg strikes,
so forecast has been updated to reflect this in the singular
storm between dayton and cincinnati. Overall trend for this
should be to maximize in the next 1 2 hour to hour and then fall
apart later this evening. After this time, the focus will fall
on the convective complex currently in southern illinois that
will skirt into northeast ohio late tonight, more towards
Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s, close to current
dewpoints that are running in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
The low pressure system moving into the northern great lakes
is forecast to more or less hold its intensity, rather than
deepening or weakening, as it progresses forward. Mean wsw flow
aloft will align over the ohio valley as this low moves
northwest of the area, with increasing southerly flow building
into the region. This will lead most notably to a further
increase in moisture -- with surface dewpoints climbing into the
lower to middle 70s, and precipitable water values increasing to
near or slightly above 2". Conditions to start the morning will
likely be more dry than wet (despite some solutions that appear
overdone from the 12z GFS nam) but convection should begin to
develop relatively freely by late morning and into the early
It would be easy to say that the incoming cold front will drive
the convective forecast for the day, but it is not that simple.
Since the surface low is not deepening, the orientation of the
front actually becomes slightly less favorable with time, and
there is no hard gradient in wind direction or theta-e to pin a
timing forecast on. Rather, a pre-frontal trough or general
convergence will help to organize (or semi-organize) storms
before and during peak heating, before downstream propagation
takes over later in the day. With the actual cold front not
moving through until late, a few showers may persist into the
late night, though waning (or used-up) instability will limit
the strength of this convection.
In terms of potential hazards during the afternoon storms, both
shear and instability look decent but not spectacular. While
there is some turning in the low levels, overall bulk shear
values are around 30-35 knots at 0-6km, closer to the higher end
of that range in the northwestern iln cwa. MLCAPE values should
be able to reach 1500 j kg, at least in pockets, but the
increasing moisture aloft raises cloud concerns that could limit
stronger heating. While this scenario could support a few strong
to severe storms, the threat appears marginal overall. The going
hwo mention appears sufficient, so no changes will be made.
The amount of moisture in the atmosphere will support heavy|
rain, but the generally-progressive flow should keep flash
flood issues localized rather than systemic.
Pops were increased to 70 percent for the entire cwa, timed
across the CWA from 18z to 00z, with somewhat-generous gradients
of lesser pop values on either side of the peak. No big changes
to the temperature forecasts for tomorrow or tomorrow night,
allowing for mid 80s during the afternoon and upper 60s to
around 70 by early Friday morning.
Long term Friday through Wednesday
Models continue to adjust their timing of cold frontal passage and
convection Thursday night into Friday morning. Latest runs have come
into good agreement on a slightly quicker solution, which now leaves
the fa dry at 12z Friday as the pcpn is shunted off just E of the
area. Wly flow behind the front should bring lower dewpoints and
more stable air, so dried out Friday.
H5 S W is still advertised to swing through the great lakes on
Saturday, but the amount of pcpn it brings is not certain. Went with
chance pops across the north, tapering down to slight chance in the
As the S W pulls away Saturday night, high pressure builds in at the
surface. It will keep the region dry both days. By Tuesday, models
drop energy into the region from the great lakes, bringing scattered
thunderstorms. The GFS is quicker with the return of the pcpn than
the ECMWF or the canadian hemispheric as it brings QPF in by 12z
Tuesday. Decided to go with a blend of the extended, so brought 20
pops into the west. Convection should develop ahead of the front on
Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Pops should be decreasing from the nw
to SE on Wednesday.
Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
Very isolated showers over the region will likely not affect
the TAF sites this evening but will also continue to fire
through the evening hours and will need to be monitored. Few cu
clouds 5-6kft this evening will have a higher cirrus and then
dissipate as mid level as deck around 10kft precedes the next
round of showers that are currently in southern illinois.
Warm front lifting north through the upper midwest will have
this area of showers with embedded thunderstorms clip the dayton
area late tonight. As the focus of the showers shears out,
activity will be scattered and then re-gain focus in the
afternoon along a convergent boundary underneath a mid level
vorticity maxima. More storms will be found tomorrow afternoon
and could affect all TAF sites.
Until storms physically reach a terminal, maximizing in the
afternoon tomorrow, conditions will remainVFR.
Outlook... Thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and
Iln watches warnings advisories
near term... Franks
short term... Hatzos
long term... Sites
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY||9 mi||67 min||S 7||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||76°F||73°F||91%||1014.1 hPa|
|Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH||20 mi||66 min||SSW 6||10.00 mi||Fair||76°F||73°F||91%||1014.5 hPa|
Wind History from CVG (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||Calm||NW||Calm||NW||Calm||W||N||NW||W||W||Calm||W||W||W||W||W||W||W||Calm||Calm||Calm|
|2 days ago||SE||E||E||E||SE||E||E||SE||SE||S||S||S||S||S||S||S||S||SW||Calm||S||SW||SW||W||SW |
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|Weather Map ||IR Satellite Image from GEOS|
GOES Local Image of Midwest EDIT
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (1,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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