Friday, November17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oakbrook, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:24PM Friday November 17, 2017 7:57 PM EST (00:57 UTC) Moonrise 6:21AMMoonset 5:21PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KY
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location: 38.93, -84.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 180006
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
706 pm est Fri nov 17 2017

Synopsis
A strong low pressure system will approach the region tonight. A
cold front will move through Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
High pressure is situated east of the area and southerly flow
has allowed temperatures to rise into the 40s to low 50s.

Temperatures will drop off early this evening, however
temperatures will rise then through the overnight hours as warm
air advection increases.

Isentropic lift will allow for some shower activity for the
first part of the overnight hours. As the low level jet
increases overnight expect an area of more widespread shower
activity to move across the region. Cannot rule out some
isolated thunder with elevated instability.

Winds and wind gusts will increase through the night. There is a
pretty good inversion in place, however with some of the shower
activity cannot rule out seeing some wind gusts around 30 to 35
mph by the end of the near term.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
Gusty winds will continue through the short term time period.

Although gusty winds will be present through the time period
there may be slightly less wind gusts during the late morning
into the early afternoon hours with the low CIGS and before the
convection works in there may be limited mixing.

The GFS has a thin ribbon of instability during the afternoon
to early evening hours. The NAM has less in the way of
instability across the region. Expect at least some chance for
thunder and therefore went with a chance of thunder. Due to the
strong low level wind field cannot rule out an isolated strong
to severe storm with damaging winds being the primary threat.

Some of the rain may also be heavy at times, however expect any
flooding to be isolated in nature.

The cold front will work through during the afternoon and into
the evening hours. In advance of this feature temperatures will
continue to rise into the 60s across most of the region. Strong
cold air advection will work into the region with the frontal
passage. After the frontal passage is when the strongest wind
gusts are expected. 8 pm to 2 am is the time frame where the
strongest wind gusts are expected across the region. Wind gusts
of 40 to 50 mph will be possible during this time. Although the
best chance of wind advisory winds will be during this time
(wind advisory criteria is 31-39 mph sustained, 46-57 mph
gusts), decided to have start and end the advisory before and
after this time with the potential for gusty winds through the
entire advisory time.

As the widespread precipitation tapers off Saturday night there
will be lingering low level moisture. Model sounding profiles
indicate that the area will be right on the edge on whether
there is enough cold air that any residual precipitation with
winds off of the lake will be in the from of drizzle or
flurries. At this point with it being close, went with flurries.

Long term Sunday through Friday
A secondary short wave will pivot across the area through Sunday
afternoon along with the core of coldest air. Moisture will remain
fairly shallow, mainly at or below 850 mb, but in weakly cyclonic
low level flow, some scattered flurries or a few snow showers will
be possible, with the best chance being across our northern areas.

Temperatures will likely struggle to rise all that much with highs
on Sunday only in the mid 30s to possibly upper 30s across our
south.

Surface high pressure will build east across the tennessee valley to
the mid atlantic coast Monday into Tuesday. With a dry airmass in
place and some developing waa, highs on Monday will push into the
low to mid 40s and then the upper 40s to lower 50s by Tuesday. Short
wave energy moving across the great lakes will help push a cold
front southeast across our area Tuesday night. Moisture is limited
though so the main affect will just be a reinforcing shot of colder
air. This will lead to highs on Wednesday and Thursday in the upper
30s to low mid 40s as surface high pressure again moves east across
the region. Expect dry conditions to continue into Friday with some
moderating temperatures as we get on the back side of the high.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
High clouds are streaming across the region this evening as high
pressure continues to retreat east. Late this evening into early
Saturday morning isentropic upglide will commence with showers
and isolated thunder activity moving across the area. This
activity will move in a wave across the area Saturday morning
and exit the region between 6 am and 8 am. Saturday afternoon a
surface cold front will move into the region from the west a
bringing a second round of showers and isolated thunderstorms
with it.

The other concern for late this evening into early Saturday
morning will be the low level wind shear. NAM 2 kft wind speed
is showing wind speeds of around 50 kts. Due to this have kept
the mention of llws in the tafs. Saturday morning into afternoon
wind gusts will be approaching 30 kts and continue into the
afternoon and behind the frontal passage Saturday evening
(momentum transfer is showing slightly less than current tafs
are advertising, but given the strong LLJ have kept speed of gusts
in).

Finally, most of the TAF issuance will be characterized by MVFR
conditions. During heavier periods of precipitation restrictions
down towards ifr will be possible.

Outlook... MVFR ceilings to linger on Sunday. Thunderstorms
possible on Saturday. Gusty winds between 30 and 40 knots likely
Saturday into Saturday night.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... Wind advisory from noon Saturday to 4 am est Sunday for ohz026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.

Ky... Wind advisory from noon Saturday to 4 am est Sunday for
kyz089>100.

In... Wind advisory from noon Saturday to 4 am est Sunday for inz050-
058-059-066-073>075-080.

Synopsis... Haines novak
near term... Novak
short term... Novak
long term... Jgl
aviation... Haines


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY9 mi65 minS 610.00 miOvercast43°F36°F76%1014.7 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH20 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair44°F34°F68%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from CVG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N5NE5E8E5E7E8SE11SE9SE9SE10SE10SE11SE9SE9S8SE9SE9SE7SE9SE9SE9S8S6
1 day agoW7SW7W8SW6SW6SW7SW6SW7W10NW13NW16
G23
NW11NW9NW8W9NW8NW5NW9NW5NW6N5N5N5N5
2 days agoSE5SE4SE5SE8SE9SE8S5SE6SE6S8SE10S7SE6S7S7S8SW6S8SW7SW10
G18
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SW11
G17
SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.