Monday, May29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Oakbrook, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:58PM Monday May 29, 2017 3:37 AM EDT (07:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:23AMMoonset 11:49PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KY
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location: 38.93, -84.72     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 290736
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
336 am edt Mon may 29 2017

A slightly drier air mass is in place in the middle ohio valley
behind a cold front. Another weak front will move through the
area tonight, which could bring a few showers or thunderstorms.

Upper level low pressure will remain in place over the northern
great lakes through the middle of the week, with seasonable
conditions over the ohio valley.

Near term through today
It is not easy to say exactly where the surface trough front is
located early this morning, as there is little definition to
the wind shift. Dewpoints probably tell the story the best, with
a drop from the lower 60s to upper 50s, but even this is not
especially well defined. Regardless, there are clear signs of a
drier air mass advecting into the region, which will be the
biggest change in the weather from yesterday to today -- similar
temperatures, but less humidity and clearer skies.

With the drier air in place, model soundings show much deeper
mixing today, perhaps to around 5kft-6kft. Wind flow, however,
is not very strong -- limiting gust potential today to maybe
around 20 knots. The low-end chances for precipitation this
evening will be discussed in the short term afd section below.

Short term tonight through 6 pm Tuesday
The dominant feature in the large-scale weather pattern early
this week will be the upper low centered north of lake superior.

On the southern periphery of this low, pseudo-zonal flow is
expected over the iln cwa, but with some intrusion of very weak
shortwave forcing at times. One such instance will occur this
evening, with a very weak vorticity maxima moving east through
the CWA between 00z and 06z. Looking at winds and theta-e, there
is also evidence of a weak front at 925mb-850mb. This is not an
especially strong amount of forcing, and the air mass it will be
interacting with is fairly dry. At most, soundings are
developing SBCAPE values of around 500 j kg -- shallow and
high-based. Thus, not seeing a reason (at least this far out in
the forecast process) to increase pops above the 20-30 percent
chances currently in the forecast. These chances will end after
06z as the weak trough moves onward to the east.

Owing to the slight decrease in 925mb-850mb temperatures,
temperatures are likely to drop slightly from Monday to Tuesday,
even though it will be another day with a reasonable amount of
insolation and mixing. With 850mb temperatures falling by 2-3
degrees c, the MAX t forecast will show a 3-5 degree f drop
from Monday to Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
The center of an upper level closed low over ontario will continue to
elongate and rotate northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. A couple
of embedded disturbances rotating around the base of this low across
our region, coupled with a weak cold front trof axis, requires
keeping low chance pops going during this period. The weak front
should exit the eastern cwfa by Wednesday evening when the threat
for pcpn should come to an end. After lows in the lower to mid 50s
Wednesday morning, highs on Wednesday will range from the lower to
mid 70s.

As the main mid level trough axis shifts east Wednesday night,
confluent flow in the mid levels will result in surface high
pressure building into the ohio valley. Skies will clear and winds
will become light to calm. It will likely be the coolest low
temperatures of the extended given radiational cooling. Lows will
drop into the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

We will try to squeeze out a dry day on Thursday. However, return
moist flow around departing high and a pseudo warm front approaching
the region from the west may bring clouds and a low chance of
showers and thunderstorms to our far western cwfa by Thursday
evening. Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 70s north to near
80 south.

Long range models are in decent agreement as we head into the first
part of the weekend, but then diverge as we go into next week.

Another upper level closed low is forecast to dig southeast into
southeast canada and the northern great lakes Friday into Saturday.

As this occurs, a cold front will slowly push south across the great
lakes, and then it may get hung up somewhere across our area on
Saturday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase on
Friday with the highest chances likely coming Friday night into
Saturday morning.

The remainder of the extended, as stated, becomes muddled as models
can not agree if upper level closed low will push off to our east or
additional energy will dig southward from south central canada into
the great lakes. Have broad brushed the forecast during this period
as front may be slow to depart to our east southeast. Thus, kept at
least a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the south, but
did allow the far north to dry out. High temperatures will remain in
the 70s for the weekend.

Aviation 07z Monday through Friday
Chances for thunderstorms are ending at the TAF sites, perhaps
just to persist for another hour or so at columbus. While a few
light showers are located upstream over indiana, these are most
likely to dissipate, and very unlikely to hit one of the
airports. Aside from a few MVFR ceilings in the next couple
hours,VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the taf
period, with clearing skies.

Late this afternoon, there will be an increase in mid level
clouds from the north, reaching the northern TAF sites by late
in the forecast period. There may be a chance for a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms, but confidence is too low to
include in the tafs as of now. A vcsh will be used at tday.

Outlook... Thunderstorms will be possible on Friday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Hatzos
near term... Hatzos
short term... Hatzos
long term... Hickman
aviation... Hatzos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY9 mi46 minSW 59.00 miA Few Clouds61°F60°F97%1010.8 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH20 mi45 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist61°F61°F100%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from CVG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS4S7S6S9S7SW10
2 days agoSW4SW3SW3SW3SW3SW6SW6SW5W10W8SW6S8SW10SW10S9S8S6SE7SE8S9S5S10S5SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.