Monday, December18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Oakbrook, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 5:20PM Monday December 18, 2017 4:09 AM EST (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:57AMMoonset 5:59PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KY
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location: 38.93, -84.72     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 180622
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
122 am est Mon dec 18 2017

Weak weather disturbances crossing the ohio valley tonight and
tomorrow will bring clouds and a little drizzle to much of the
area as temperatures remain mild. While clouds will likely hang
on into Tuesday, temperatures will warm into the 50s ahead of
the next weak cold front which will slip through the area rather
quietly on Tuesday evening. This front will bring cooler
temperatures and a little sunshine for Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Observations to our west continue to show a lowering of the
ceilings and some reduction in visibility. This should spread
northeast overnight in a continued moist southwest flow in the
low levels. Weak WAA in the low levels along with this
saturation should also allow for the development of patchy
drizzle. Have kept the patchy fog wording, but added areas of
fog to the northwest where models signal this region as the
highest threat for visibility reduction.

Temperatures will not fall that much from current readings as
clouds and a little wind prevent substantial cooling. Lows will
generally range from the mid 30s north northeast to the upper
30s elsewhere.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Strong mid level ridge to remain over the southeast with
westerly flow around its periphery over the ohio valley. Mid
level vort axis to cross the area Monday with main S W to our
north. Weak vertical motion and continued thick low level
moisture will lead to continued drizzle and clouds Monday into
Monday evening. Mild temperature will continue with high
temperatures on Monday from the lower 40s northeast to the upper
40s southwest.

Depth of low cloud layer decreases as WAA develops in the cloud
layer with patchy drizzle diminishing Monday night. Some breaks
may even develop in the clouds, especially over the west late.

Temperatures will not show much diurnal fall with lows Monday
night from the upper 30s north to the lower 40s south.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
A split flow pattern will set up through the middle of the week,
with the iln CWA largely remaining in between the two streams. A
shortwave moving through the great lakes on Tuesday will likely not
impact weather conditions over the ohio valley, beyond the generally
cloudy skies that are expected to be in place. Continued warm
advection will lead to ma temps in the lower to middle 50s. An
associated cold front on Tuesday night will switch winds to the
north and lead to cold advection. This front is also expected to
come through dry, with a lack of deep-layer moisture and large-scale

Confidence remains good that on Wednesday and Wednesday night, a
southern stream low pressure system will pass south of the forecast
area. As this occurs, an area of high pressure over the great lakes
will have the iln CWA on its southern fringes, resulting in light
winds that eventually turn to the southeast by Thursday. Though
there will be clearer skies in the drier air mass, the cold
advection from the cold front Tuesday night will lead to a 10-12
degree drop in MAX temps from Tuesday to Wednesday, followed by a
slight rebound after another day of mostly clear skies on Thursday.

Forecast confidence begins getting lower by the end of the week,
though there is large-scale agreement on low pressure developing and
moving northeast into southern michigan by Friday evening. This will
lead to non-diurnal (warming) temperatures on Thursday night, with
increasing chances for precipitation along and ahead of the
associated cold front on Friday and Friday night. With regards to
the low pressure system, timing, phase, and depth differences are
still significant. This affects not only the timing of the greatest
precipitation chances (which right now appear to be Friday
afternoon, definitely subject to change) but also in the amount and
duration of the precipitation, in large part due to the inconsistent
handling of additional southern stream forcing and moisture
transport. Friday does look like a day that will almost certainly
favor rain as the main (or only) precipitation type, but some mix to
snow behind the cold front could occur.

By Saturday, differences in the modeled pattern become far too large
to even attempt to approximate or assimilate into a gridded
forecast. After the cold front passes on Friday night into Saturday,
temperatures will certainly cool back down, but additional chances
for precipitation are very uncertain at this point in the forecast

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Southerly flow over the region will bring in abundant moisture
in the lowest few thousand feet underneath a lowering inversion
today. Passing vorticity maxima at h5 along with a splotchy h7
upward motion vector are showing that disjointed forcing should
bring patchy drizzle and ifr clouds to the region for the
better part of the day. After about 20-21z, the larger upward
motion has moved east of the region and drizzle should be ending
at all locations. Low clouds will occasionally reach above ifr
and into the MVFR category at times throughout the day, but more
likely in the later day and evening.

Outlook... MVFR ifr ceilings possible into Tuesday morning. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities possible Friday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Binau hickman ar
near term... Hickman ar
short term... Binau ar
long term... Hatzos
aviation... Franks

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY9 mi77 minS 64.00 miFog/Mist41°F41°F100%1019.2 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH20 mi76 minSSW 59.00 miOvercast42°F39°F92%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from CVG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS7S7S4S8S7S7S9S6SW7S6S4S4S5S5S6S9S8SW7S6SW7SW6S6S6S5
1 day agoS8SW9SW8SW11SW12
2 days agoSW3SW3CalmS3SW6SW7SW7SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.