Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 10:41 PM   Moonset 7:00 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KILN 260628 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 228 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the Great Lakes will move east today, with dry weather continuing for the Ohio Valley. A warming trend will begin on Friday, as an upper level ridge moves east of the region. Precipitation chances will increase starting on Friday afternoon, with a warm front moving into the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Surface high pressure is centered over southern Ontario, with light ENE flow over the middle Ohio Valley. Mostly clear conditions are expected through the near term.

With a dry air mass and mostly clear skies, tonight will be somewhat favorable for falling temperatures and frost development. The one limiting factor is the wind flow, which will not go completely calm. With that in mind, freezing temperatures are not generally expected, and temperatures cold enough for frost will only impact less than half of the forecast area tonight. A Frost Advisory was coordinated with surrounding offices and issued for parts of west-central and central Ohio.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
At 12Z Friday, high pressure will have moved east into New England, and a mid-level ridge axis will be just upstream of the ILN CWA As this axis moves east, SSW flow on its back side will begin an increase of theta-e into the area. While there may not be a very well-defined surface front, moisture convergence and theta-e advection at 850mb will be more pronounced, and a band of showers (with possibly some embedded thunderstorms) will move into the area late in the afternoon and into the evening.
Precipitation chances appear highest in the northwestern ILN CWA, where the forcing is a little bit stronger. Behind this initial wave of precipitation, chances will continue into the overnight hours, but they will be much more spotty and limited.

Temperatures should warm appreciably before the thicker clouds and precipitation move in Friday afternoon, with highs reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s -- with the warmest temperatures in south-central Ohio and northeast Kentucky. There is some potential for this area to reach the upper 70s tomorrow.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
The first of two mid level shortwaves will be moving off to the northeast and the band of showers associated with the warm front from this system will have progressed out of the area.
This leaves us in a warm airmass with strong southerly flow as ridging moves in aloft. Breezy southerly winds remain in place and we gust to 30 MPH or so on Saturday.

Since there aren't any synoptic or mesoscale forcing mechanisms for ascent moving through, so we're not expecting widespread precipitation at this time. However, diurnally driven storms may be possible through the daytime hours Saturday. High temperatures reach the low 80s. Overnight lows into Sunday fall into the mid 60s with mostly dry conditions continuing.

The strength and positioning of the ridge continue to contribute to the ongoing warming trend. Highs on Sunday reach the low 80s, with low chances for an afternoon popup storm.

By the start of the work week, the secondary shortwave begins to open up and move northeast with the surface system moving northeast through the Plains. High clouds begin to build in on Monday and precipitation chances begin to increase as the weak cold front marches toward the region. Have Likely PoPs in for Monday overnight into Tuesday, but overall forcing isn't robust.

High temps anticipated to be only a tad cooler on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 70s. Rain chances decrease in the post- frontal air for Tuesday into Wednesday, but quickly return as yet another shortwave begins to move toward the area in the larger flow. Have periodic chances for PoPs in the forecast through the remainder of the week in the unsettled pattern.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High level clouds to continue to spill into the area today as a mid level ridge builds across the area. As the ridge axis shifts to the east moisture will increase late in the day into this evening.

Clouds will thicken and lower while ceilings remain VFR this afternoon as the mid level ridge axis shifts east and the flow backs southwesterly.

The favorable lift will results in a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms that pivots north thru the area late in the day into this evening. Have a mention of VCSH for this pcpn band but brief MVFR conditions will be possible in rain showers.

East winds at 10 kts or less early will become southeast at 10 to 15 kts this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible on Saturday.
Thunderstorms are possible Monday night into Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035- 043>046-052>056-063>065-073-074.
KY...None.
IN...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Wilmington, OH,