Thursday, March22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Oakbrook, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 7:54PM Thursday March 22, 2018 6:04 AM EDT (10:04 UTC) Moonrise 10:02AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KY
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location: 38.93, -84.72     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 220851
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
451 am edt Thu mar 22 2018

High pressure and a dry, but seasonably cool airmass will build
across the region today through Friday. A low pressure system
will move into the area this weekend, bringing a chance for rain
and snow late Friday night into Saturday night. High pressure
and dry conditions will return for early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Clearing is continuing to work slowly east across the area
early this morning with about the western two thirds of our fa
now clear. Given the fresh snowfall, temperatures have not
fallen off as much as might be expected under clear skies and
relatively light winds. That being said, will still allow for
temperatures to fall into the upper teens to lower 20s across at
least our west since we still have several hours before

Surface high pressure will build in from the west through this
afternoon. With some lingering lower level moisture and still
some weak low level caa, think we could see a few fair weather
cumulus develop, especially across our eastern areas. Highs
today will generally be in the low to mid 40s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
The surface high will shift slowly east across our area tonight
through Friday. This will lead to dry and continued cool
conditions. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 20s with
highs on Friday ranging from the low 40s in the north to the mid
40s in the south.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Friday night a potent mid level disturbance will push east out of
the mountain west with surface cyclogenesis occurring over western
kansas. Through Friday night the surface low will pull east with
strong isentropic upglide commencing. The latest gfs, nam, and ecmwf
all show a LLJ approaching 40 kts forcing warm moist ascent across
kentucky, indiana, and ohio. Looking at the 300 kelvin surface
reveals very strong ascent with condensation pressure deficits at
zero starting Saturday morning and continuing into the late
afternoon. Across our northeastern zones there will likely be a cut
off in the precipitation as low level moisture fields indicate dry
air remaining entrenched towards columbus and kenton. The main area
of concern will across our central and southern zones (towards
wilmington, cincinnati, connersville, and batesville). Along this
northwest to southeast axis the mid level wave will pass overhead
allowing thermal profiles to mostly remain below freezing through
the column. Strong overrunning and omega (from the PVA and waa) near
the dgz will produce a band of moderate snow. On the latest gfs,
ecmwf, gefs, and eps there are consistent signals for an
accumulating snow event, and perhaps even significant. Many factors
will come into play here though that will affect snow amounts. These
will include surface temperatures, low level thermal profiles, track
of the surface low, and road temperatures (to name a few).

Current forecast soundings on the GFS show a slightly colder thermal
profile than the NAM with the ECMWF being similar. As of now the
area of highest confidence for remaining all snow will be just north
of the ohio river. Areas south of the ohio river will likely mix
with pellets and go to rain possibly. Still though, this type of
strong vertical motion near the dgz (with the support of an fgen
band out ahead of the low level low pressure) snowfall totals can
quickly add up. It should also be noted that with the strong upper
level wave moving across at this time mid level lapse rates quickly
steepen with elevated instability forming.

Given the latest exceedance probabilities on the GEFS and eps have
gone ahead and issued a winter storm watch starting late Friday
night through Saturday night across portions of east central and
southeast indiana, northern kentucky and western ohio.

Late Saturday night into Sunday morning the mid level wave will
begin to wash out and head southeast. For the most part Sunday into
Monday will remain dry as mid level ridging moves overhead. Any snow
that did fall on Tuesday will quickly melt as high temperatures
warm close to 50 degrees on Monday.

By Tuesday an upper level low will remain quasi-stationary over the
southwestern united states. This will allow for much warmer weather
with highs approaching 60 degrees by Wednesday. Also, the pattern
looks to be wet with multiple rounds of upper level disturbances
crossing the region.

Aviation 07z Thursday through Monday
Clearing line has pushed east of the western TAF sites and will
continue to work slowly east through the rest of this morning.

Until then though, some mid level clouds will persist at
kcmh klck for the next several hours. We could see some sct cu
development late this morning into early afternoon, especially
across the eastern tafs where there will be a little better
lingering low level moisture. Any CU should dissipate toward
evening with mainly clear skies overnight.VFR conditions are
expected through the TAF period.

Outlook... MVFR ifr ceilings and visibilities are possible
Saturday and Saturday night. MVFR ceilings are possible again on

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Jgl
near term... Jgl
short term... Jgl
long term... Haines
aviation... Jgl

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY9 mi72 minW 410.00 miFair23°F19°F88%1022.9 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH20 mi71 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist23°F21°F96%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from CVG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW17N15NW15NW15N17--N13NW13NW13NW16NW18NW11W8W7W5W5SW4SW4CalmW6NW5W6W4NW10
1 day agoN15
2 days agoNE5E6NE6NE8NE9NE9NE11E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.