Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oakbrook, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 9:10PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 3:20 PM EDT (19:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:22AMMoonset 11:43PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KY
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location: 38.93, -84.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 281754
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
154 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
An exiting surface high pressure system will see southerly winds
set up over the ohio valley, bringing an increase in both
temperature and moisture for the latter part of the week. A cold
front will push east through the region early Saturday, with
some pre-frontal storms affecting the region Friday night. High
pressure will then build in behind it for the new week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region
today. Went warmer than consshort for temperatures today and
went closer to guidance for high temperatures. Some CU will
develop for the afternoon hours.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
High clouds will continue to increase from the NW tonight from
upstream convection that is not forecast to reach any part of
the CWA until Thursday. Even this scenario appears less likely
with the exception of the northwest, given a strong warming
trend in the lower levels inhibiting any convective initiation.

Storms that skirt far northern CWA on Thursday will be peeled
off from convective elements further nw.

The proximity of storms north of the area will keep some chance
of thunderstorms north of the i-70 corridor through Thursday and
overnight into Friday. Friday will see more upper level
shortwaves getting closer to the CWA and less large-scale
heating in the lower atmosphere. Convection will have an
increased threat for hitting just about any of the CWA during
the afternoon Friday, in advance of the cold front that will
cross early Saturday. Friday night will have the highest
propensity of storms in the region given the proximity of the
cold front, increased moisture, and upper level support with
shortwave energy lifting nne ahead of the longwave trough.

Overnight lows in the mid 60s tonight will warm to around 70
thurs and Fri night in the warm sector. Highs in the low to mid
80s will prevail for thurs and Fri with generally cloudy
conditions to the north and slightly more Sun infiltrating to
the south and east.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
Timing of the frontal passage remains in question on Saturday,
but the earlier solution is favored with a quicker ending of any
thunderstorm activity, even in current forecast. Pops lasting
into the afternoon was more of a hedge towards the GFS solution,
with the l W trough still found west of the region behind the
surface front.

Temperatures Saturday onward were close to climo on both highs
and lows, and the next threat for thunderstorms was muddled but
increased on Tuesday with the approach of a system ejecting ne
into the ohio valley from the midwest.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
The large cirrus blowoff associated with upstream convective
activity continues to stream into the area, resulting in a
periodic bkn deck for northern terminals. Additionally, a few
vfr CU have developed across southwestern parts of the area, but
expect that thicker cirrus shield may inhibit further
development and or expansion of the CU field through the
afternoon.

One or two hi-res model solutions continue to depict remnant
shower activity meandering into extreme northwestern parts of
the area overnight, but think this may be a bit overdone with
amount of dry air currently in place in local area. Activity
should wane and dissipate well before reaching any of the taf
sites, so have kept fcsts dry.

Main item of interest overnight will be the strengthening of a
h8 jet which will lead to some llws, mainly between 06z-12z.

The llws will likely be strongest for kday, with 2kft winds of
40kts possible at times during this time period.

Towards end of TAF period, as mixing becomes a bit more robust,
expect southwest winds of 12-15kts with gusts of 20-25kts
possible, especially for higher elevation sites of kday and
kiln.

Sct mid high level clouds and a few diurnally-driven CU are
expected during the day Thursday. All potential precipitation
chances will likely stay to the north of the terminals and hold
off until after the TAF period comes to an end.VFR conditions
are expected for all sites through the period.

Outlook... Thunderstorms possible at times from Thursday night
through Sunday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Franks
near term... Novak
short term... Franks
long term... Franks novak
aviation... Kc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY9 mi28 minS 810.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F55°F47%1019.1 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH20 mi27 minS 910.00 miFair79°F57°F47%1019.4 hPa

Wind History from CVG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N4N7W8N3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmS8S8S11S11S10SW11
G15
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1 day agoW12
G21
W10
G18
W10W9W7W5W6W7NW9SW4SW4N5W6S3SW4W3W5NW4N5NW85NW7NW9N3
2 days agoW10
G22
W16NW11NW14NW10NW7NW3W4CalmSW4SW5W7NW6W5W7W4W5W5SW6NW6NW13
G19
NW12
G18
NW12NW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.