Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oakbrook, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 7:34PM Sunday September 23, 2018 8:54 AM EDT (12:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:15PMMoonset 4:49AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KY
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location: 38.93, -84.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 231049
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
649 am edt Sun sep 23 2018

Synopsis
Moisture will overspread a stalled front in the tennessee
valley today, bringing rain across southern portions of the
region. Additional moisture will return to the region early
next week. This will result in several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain possible through the middle of the
week. A strong cold front will move through the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A disturbance embedded in broad southwest flow is forecast to
lift across the southern third of the forecast area this
morning. This will combine with a low level jet to produce a
favorable region of lift. Models bring an area of showers across
nrn ky into south central ohio this morning. With precip water
approaching two inches, a period of moderate to heavy rain is
possible. It is looking like there will be a sharp cut off to
the pcpn on the NRN side, so quickly dropped pops down to near
zero for the NRN half of the fa. Will hold off on issuing any
flood watch as the latest meso-scale models are suggesting that
the heaviest pcpn could stay just to the south of the fa.

By afternoon, the better PVA will be moving east of the region,
pulling the better pcpn chances with it. Warmest highs today
will be found in the north were lower 70s are expected. In nrn
ky and south central oh, highs will be held down in the mid to
upper 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday
Tonight the h5 flow backs a little more to the southwest and
pcpn spreads quickly back to the north. Lows tonight will be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s.

By Monday, an h5 S W will be rotating out of the ms valley into
the region. Rain is expected to increase in coverage in the lift
out ahead of the S w. There should be enough instability for
some scattered thunder. Highs will only make it into the lower
70s on Monday.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the
region Monday night into Tuesday as the region remains in
broad southwest flow aloft. At the sfc, precipitable water
values will remain near 2 inches. Models are suggesting the
possibility of some heavy rains, but with differences in timing
and placement will hold off on any flood watches. Highs Tuesday
will be a little warmer, in the mid 70s.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
A cold front is forecast to approach Tuesday night with showers
and thunderstorms. Models suggest high moisture content, with
precipitable water values possibly near 2 inches, along with
some shear. However, CAPE is forecast to be on the low side. So
confidence in widespread severe is low, but given presence of
shear and stronger forcing, strong to damaging wind gusts may be
possible especially if higher instability can be realized. This
threat is reflected in the SPC outlook. And given high
moisture, heavy rainfall may promote localized flooding.

Confidence on the exact frontal passage is still somewhat uncertain,
but latest trends favor the front moving east through the cwa
Wednesday morning. Pops lower behind the front as drier air begins
to filter in. A shortwave and reinforcing front follow Thursday
night into early Friday, but with much less moisture to work with it
looks like only a slight chance of showers as these features move
through. While seven days out, right now Saturday appears dry with
high pressure building in.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Large area of rain just south of kcvg kluk will not make any
headway further north this morning. The northern edge appears to
be well-defined and the east-northeast movement of the area
runs parallel to this edge, limiting the potential of activity
reaching the southern TAF sites today. Lower CIGS will remain a
possibility this morning but until upstream observations drop to
the MVFR range, forecast was keptVFR until at least late
afternoon.

The overnight period will finally see a more northward
progression of the rain shield into the tri-state area and
cvg luk tafs. It may nose into the remaining tafs at the tail
end of the period, but there remains high variability in the
models and low confidence in how the system is going to evolve,
even in the near-term forecast.

Day cmh lck and to a lesser extent iln have been keptVFR with
cigs dropping into the MVFR range after sunset.

Outlook... MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely on Monday.

Thunderstorms possible Monday through Wednesday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Hickman ar sites
near term... Sites
short term... Sites
long term... Bpp
aviation... Franks


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY9 mi62 minNE 710.00 miOvercast59°F55°F87%1019 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH20 mi61 minNE 410.00 miOvercast59°F57°F93%1019.9 hPa

Wind History from CVG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12NE10NE10NE11NE9NE8N6NE7NE8N7N8E11NE7E9E8E9E9NE8E9E9E7NE6NE9NE7
1 day agoS11SW11S10SW12
G18
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SW7SW8S12S9S11SW7W3SW3NW10N10N11N16
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2 days agoS5S5SW7SW6SW7SW6W6S11SW9S7S6S7S7S7S9S7S8S8S6S9S7S7S9S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.