Sunday, December16, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Oakbrook, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 5:19PM Sunday December 16, 2018 10:32 PM EST (03:32 UTC) Moonrise 1:43PMMoonset 1:06AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KY
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location: 38.93, -84.72     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 170153
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
853 pm est Sun dec 16 2018

High pressure will briefly push into the area tonight. A dry
cold front will cross the region on Monday. High pressure will
then build in through mid week.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Clearing has slowed across the area with low clouds still across
about the southeast half of our area. Along and just behind the
clearing line, we have seen areas of fog develop with some of
it locally dense. There is a lot of uncertainty with the
overnight forecast at this point as the nighttime cooling going
on now, may very well continue to slow the low cloud clearing.

Meanwhile, some drier dewpoints are forecast to advect in from
the northwest overnight, so also not sure how long these lower
visibilities along the i-71 corridor will persist. Checking
local web cams across the area, the dense fog does not appear to
be too widespread at this time. Given the uncertainties, think
the best way to handle it at the moment is with an sps but will
continue to monitor for a possible dense fog advisory if
conditions become more widespread and or persist.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
A cold front will cross the region Monday morning. Little to no
moisture for this to work with. However in its wake, cold air
advection and flow off the lakes will lead to development of
stratocumulus. This will be more extensive across the northeast
part of the forecast area. Clouds will diminish in the evening
as high pressure builds in Monday night. Temperatures will be
near normal.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
The long term period will begin with rather benign weather
locally as surface high pressure builds into the ohio valley by
Tuesday and slowly drifts east of the region towards midweek.

This setup should support plentiful sunshine Tuesday through the
first part of the day on Wednesday before clouds begin to
increase from the southwest ahead of the next system poised to
impact the area for the second part of the workweek.

Temperatures on Tuesday should be fairly close to seasonal norms --
with highs ranging from the upper 30s (north) to the lower 40s
(south). Slightly warmer air will begin to filter into the area by
Wednesday as southerly surface flow becomes established. Anticipate
the highs will top out several degrees either side of the 50 degree
mark for Wednesday.

The primary weather-maker for the local area this week will begin to
move into the region by late Wednesday night into Thursday. Even by
early Wednesday, an upper level S W within the southern stream
jet will be organizing deepening across the south-central
plains. Models remain in fairly good agreement regarding the
track and even amplitude of this system -- especially as it
undergoes a fairly rapid deepening strengthening cycle by
Thursday as energy from the northern stream begins to phase with
the southern stream disturbance. This will allow for troughing
to transition to a potent upper level system, with surface
cyclogenesis being induced on Thursday in the tennessee valley.

As of right now, confidence continues to increase in the potential
for rain showers to overspread the area on Thursday before better
forcing dynamics arrive Thursday night into early Friday. Widespread
rain will be possible, even as the surface low is fcst to track
approximately parallel to the spine of the appalachians (from near
knoxville to buffalo in the Thursday night into Saturday morning
time frame). While a track of the surface features (and the
corresponding alignment of favorable airmass thermal
characteristics) such as the one being fcst may typically suggest a
greater potential for wintry precipitation in the local area, model
guidance has remained remarkably consistent in its depiction of low
level thicknesses and thermal profiles that simply would be too warm
for any extended period of snow or even a rain snow mix. Although it
is a bit premature to be discussing details such as these this far
out, the overwhelming majority of data would suggest that despite
deep wrap-around moisture (on the back western side of the surface
low Friday Friday night) and relatively good focused forcing to
promote widespread banded precipitation, that there may not be
enough deep cold air to promote any changeover or even much mixing
of the pcpn late Friday into Friday night. While certainly there may
be some mixing of rain with a few snowflakes Friday evening as the
low pulls a bit further east, this system should be primarily a
rainmaker for the iln fa.

With all of this being said, with the prospect of a sub-990mb-
surface low tracking just east of the area, breezy to potentially
windy conditions will be possible Friday afternoon into Friday
night, with gusts in excess of 35 mph possible at times.

Colder air (although not tremendously cold -- especially considering
the time of the year) will filter in Friday night into Saturday
morning. Despite this, temps aren't expected to stray too far from
the freezing mark even during the diurnal min early Saturday.

Although some flurries from time-to-time will be possible this
weekend, mainly dry conditions look likely to develop after the
banded precipitation of Friday night exits the region to the east.

Near normal temperatures are anticipated both Saturday and

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
Clearing line is pushing east across the area early this
evening, currently to around the i-71 corridor. This clearing
line should continue to work its way east through mid evening
with skies going mostly clear at all the TAF sites within the
next hour or so.

The main concern heading into tonight will be the possibility
of br fog development. With a fair amount of low level moisture
being trapped below the low clouds through much of the day, some
uncertainty exists as to how fast if vsbys will improve heading
into tonight. It's a mixed bag with the guidance, with some of
the higher res models suggesting some dense fog possible and
others, little if any fog. Meanwhile the nam MOS is clearing
vsbys early and then trying to develop fog later tonight while
the GFS mos is hitting the fog harder early this evening and
then improving vsbys later tonight. Winds will likely stay up a
bit tonight, at least in non sheltered areas, and some lower
dewpoints should try to work in from the northwest and this
could help counter fog persistence redevelopment. Given the
uncertainty, will go ahead and allow for at least some MVFR
vsbys restrictions tonight and will monitor obs closely over the
next few hours to see if any trends develop.

A cold front will push through the area during the day on
Monday. Increasing lower level moisture behind the front could
lead to some MVFR stratocumulus development as we progress
through the day. The best chance for this appears to be at the
central ohio TAF sites where will allow for some MVFR CIGS to
develop heading into the afternoon.

Outlook... MVFR to ifr ceilings and visibilities possible
Thursday night and Friday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.


near term... Jgl
short term...

long term... Kc
aviation... Jgl

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY9 mi41 minSW 51.50 miFog/Mist41°F39°F93%1020.4 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH20 mi40 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist39°F37°F96%1021.1 hPa

Wind History from CVG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN11N10N10N7NW6W10W7NW12NW11NW10NW9N7NW6CalmW65W7SW6W10W6SW7SW6SW6SW5
1 day agoNE10NE14E7NE13NE15NE14NE15NE15N8N10N7N14NE15NE14NE13NE10NE125NE6CalmW4N5NW5NW12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.