Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 11:45 PM   Moonset 7:43 AM

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FXUS61 KILN 271953 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 353 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Southerly flow will keep temperatures well above normal into the early part of the week. A weak cold front will cross the region late Monday night into Tuesday with showers and some thunderstorms occurring well out ahead of the front.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Weak impulse moving up the Ohio Valley will result in a few showers and possible some thunder to the north and west of I-71 through the rest of the afternoon into the evening, with the best chance in west central Ohio. Mid to high cloud cover across the region will diminish once this impulse passes this evening. So there will be decreasing clouds in the overnight hours. South winds will decrease late this afternoon into the early evening, but then persist around 10 to 15 mph through the night. This will lead to rather mild lows, generally in the lower 60s, although some spots may fall into the upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The region will remain in the same airmass through the period.
South winds will become breezy again during the day. At this point, not seeing any mid level systems, so any clouds should primarily be diurnal cumulus. With fewer clouds, temperatures are forecast to be a bit warmer with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Lows will once again be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A weak frontal system approaches the Great Lakes on Monday with very warm temperatures ahead of it. Increasing cloud cover across the west may limit highs by a few degrees there, but generally nudged highs up toward the NBM 50th percentile (2-3 degrees warmer than the blend). This yields a high in the mid to upper 80s across the east.

The front and associated precipitation moves through Monday night.
Weak high pressure will briefly visit the Ohio Valley Tuesday before exiting to the east by Tuesday night into early Wednesday. After a brief "cool down" Tuesday under the surface ridge it will warm into the 80s once again for Wednesday and Thursday.

Next organized frontal system approaches to close the work week.
Details in the guidance become uncertain as to how progressive this system will be. Therefore, have kept a chance of precipitation to close the extended period.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Gusty winds will be the main issue through the period. Gusts at or above 25 kt will continue for the early part of the forecast but then diminish around 23Z with most gusts done by 02Z.
However, expect some low level wind shear to occur through the overnight hours with winds at 2kft being 40 kt or more. The low level wind shear will diminish as low levels mix Sunday morning.
This will result in the return of gusts up to 25 kt for the latter part of the period.

VFR will prevail. Mid to high clouds will continue to stream across the region. Cumulus will dissipate with the loss of heating.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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