Friday, March22, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Oakbrook, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 7:53PM Friday March 22, 2019 8:49 AM EDT (12:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:58PMMoonset 7:55AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KY
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location: 38.93, -84.72     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 221031
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
631 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

A mid-level trough will move through the great lakes today,
potentially bringing some showers to parts of the region. An
expansive area of high pressure will move into the ohio valley
tonight, providing dry conditions and warming temperatures on
Saturday and Sunday. Low pressure will move east through the
region on Sunday night and Monday, bringing rain to the area.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Current surface analysis indicates that the iln CWA is within a
small ridge in the mslp fields -- extending northeast from a
surface high located near memphis. As this ridge is moving
through the area, boundary layer flow is backing from wnw to
wsw, and the stratocumulus deck is largely eroding behind this
wind shift. This will lead to some clearing heading into the
early morning, though trying to figure out exactly how much
the clearing makes it through the forecast area is still
somewhat difficult, as a few additional stratocumulus patches
have developed behind the main shield of clouds. Nonetheless, if
anything, the forecast may need to continue to be adjusted
toward reduced sky cover as the early morning hours progress.

As a 500mb closed low moves southeast out of southern ontario
into pennsylvania, a surface trough will move south from
michigan into the ohio valley this afternoon. As this trough
moves through the area, winds will shift from wsw to nw, and
will increase in intensity as the pressure gradient tightens.

The previous forecast, with gusts of up to 30 knots, still
appears valid based on the latest model data. Relatively strong
cold advection is expected to occur between 5kft-10kft, which
will steepen lapse rates appreciably by late morning, especially
in the northeastern half of the forecast area. This should aid
the development of some convective showers, and pops have been
expanded slightly to account for this. These showers should be
largely diurnal, so dissipation is expected by sunset.

With the switch to northwesterly flow, temperatures will likely
stay in the 40s across the forecast area, with a gradient from
lower 40s to upper 40s from north to south.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Any showers are expected to be dissipated by sunset, leaving
dry conditions through the rest of the short term forecast. With
an area of surface high pressure moving in from the upper
midwest, and heights rising as a ridge builds across the
mississippi valley, conditions should begin warming aloft
heading into Saturday morning. This should lead to an erosion of
any leftover stratocumulus clouds, with generally clear skies
expected by Saturday morning. As the surface high and upper
ridge become established over the ohio valley on Saturday
afternoon, they will represent an extremely dry air mass, with
precipitable water values of under two tenths of an inch.

These conditions will lead to very favorable radiational cooling
on Saturday morning, with min temps dropping well into the 20s,
and possibly close to 20 degrees in the northern sections of the
forecast area. However, plentiful Sun and the dry air mass will
allow for a fairly strong warm-up by Saturday afternoon, with
max temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s -- a diurnal change of
about 25 degrees. It is interesting that the operational GFS is
above its various ensemble members for temperatures on Saturday,
but given the pattern, the higher numbers seem like the better
option. Thus, this forecast is close to an operational GFS nam

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Surface high pressure will move off to the east Saturday night.

Meanwhile, a mid level ridge axis aloft will dampen and shift
east as well. A weakening disturbance in the flow from the west
will bring an increase in clouds. Lows will range from the upper
20s east to the lower 30s elsewhere.

For Sunday into Sunday night, clouds will continue to
increase thicken as an upper level closed low over the central
plains opens up as a S WV and gets nudged east by a large scale
mid level trough digging southward into the great lakes and new
england. Weak low pressure with the S WV will combined with a
southward moving cold front to bring an increasing chance of
showers through the period, with categorical pops expected all
locations by Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will range from the
lower 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast. Lows Sunday
night will range from the upper 30s north to the upper 40s

On Monday, the weak low and cold front will continue to push
southeast. This will allow pcpn to taper off from the north
during the day as drier air filters in. Some clearing could
occur in the northern sections late in the day. Winds will be
from the northeast and gusty across the north west between 20
and 30 mph. It will be cooler with highs ranging from the lower
40s north to the lower 50s south.

For Monday night into Tuesday, a large area of surface high
pressure will build south into the great lakes and ohio valley.

Skies will clear Monday night with sunny skies expected on
Tuesday. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will be below normal
for late march as cooler air moves into the region. After lows
in the 20s, highs will range from the lower 40s north to the
mid upper 40s south.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, although the center of the
sprawling high will move east to new england then eventually off
the new england coast, it will still extend westward into the
great lakes and ohio valley. After a cold start in the 20s on
Wednesday morning, temperatures will begin to moderate with
plenty of sunshine Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will range from
near 50 north to the mid upper 50s south.

A mid level ridge axis will move from the plains to the
appalachian region Wednesday night into Thursday. At the same
time, surface high pressure will continue to move slowly off the
new england coast while a frontal system slowly moves east
across the mid section of the u.S. This pattern will allow
clouds to increase on Thursday. Increasing southerly flow
between the two aforementioned systems will allow temperatures
to warm into the 60s all locations.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
GenerallyVFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Clouds have mostly cleared the TAF sites early this morning,
though someVFR stratocumulus may remain in place near columbus
for another hour or two. Additional clouds are expected to
develop and or move into the area by mid to late morning and
continuing through the afternoon, though these clouds should
generally remainVFR. The exception will be at kcmh klck, where
a period of MVFR clouds will be possible again this afternoon.

Those sites may also see some passing showers from late morning
through mid afternoon, possibly bringing some MVFR visibilities.

Elsewhere, though MVFR ceilings cannot be completely ruled out,
prevailingVFR conditions are expected. Finally, as winds shift
to the nw, some gusts into the 20-30 knot range are expected.

Winds will gradually diminish heading into the overnight hours,
and clouds are expected to clear before Saturday morning as

Outlook... MVFR conditions are possible on Sunday night and

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Hatzos
near term... Hatzos
short term... Hatzos
long term... Hickman
aviation... Hatzos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY9 mi57 minW 109.00 miFair37°F32°F82%1013.2 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH20 mi56 minSW 1210.00 miFair38°F33°F83%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from CVG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW6SW5SW6SW6N9
1 day agoCalmS6S8SW9S10S13
2 days agoCalmN4N5NE5W4W7NW6S4N6NW4NW3N5NW6N3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE3CalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.