Saturday, March17, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Oakbrook, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 7:49PM Saturday March 17, 2018 8:18 AM EDT (12:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:06AMMoonset 7:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KY
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location: 38.93, -84.72     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 171150
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
750 am edt Sat mar 17 2018

An area of low pressure near missouri will push east across kentucky
and tennessee today bringing a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet,
and snow to the ohio valley. High pressure will move back into the
area on Sunday and Monday, before another area of low pressure
brings precipitation to the region on Monday night and Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Cancelled portions of the advisory where precipitation has
moved out of the region.

Surface low pressure is currently located in missouri this
morning with widespread WAA commencing out ahead of the system.

The first band in association with the upglide is already moving
across the area with temperatures below freezing mainly across
the central and northeastern zones. Dewpoint depressions across
the area are in the 10 to 20 degree range, but with rainfall
rates being on the lighter side evaporative cooling has made a
smaller impact than initially expected out in indiana. Road
temperatures across the southwest are also mainly around 40
degrees f. Where surface temperatures are below freezing
freezing rain can be expected due to a potent low level warm
nose. The exception to this will be on the northern fringe of
the system where a transition over to pellets and snow will take
place (thanks to shortwave cooling). Have gone ahead and left
the advisory unchanged for now, but think the chance for
freezing rain across the southern edge of the advisory looks
pretty slim.

As the morning progresses the WAA wing will push east and
pivot. At the same time the mid level low will start to shear
out and get absorbed into the upper level trough axis that is
located over new england. As the mid level low shears out the
surface low will weaken and pass south, meaning the iln forecast
area will remain in the cold sector. Also, with the widespread
cloud cover, highs will struggle to make it much above 40. As
the low passes to the south of us a weak deformation band will
setup across the central zones. There has been some minor model
disagreement on the exact area of placement, with the nssl wrf
showing the band setting up just north of the ohio river and the
arw and nmm showing the band moving across the wilmington area.

The latest hrrr is even slightly further north. Given where the
low level low is forecast to move across think the wilmington
solution is the most likely.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Tonight, much drier air will begin to work into the area with pwats
forecast to fall to around a tenth of an inch (or below the tenth
percentile for this time of year). During the day Sunday beautiful
weather is in the forecast with clear skies and near calm winds as
surface high pressure settles overhead. 850 mb temperatures are
forecast to be around or slightly above zero degrees c. This will
equate to high temperatures in the mid 50s, on average, across
the forecast area.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
A weakening mid level short wave will move out of the plains Sunday
night and across the tennessee ohio valleys Monday into Tuesday.

This will allow for an associated surface low to push east across
the tennessee valley and gradually weaken through Tuesday. Initially
the models are in decent agreement with the evolution of this system
although the 00z ECMWF remains somewhat farther south with the track
of the low and thus the northern extent of the pcpn shield Monday
into Tuesday compared to the GFS nam cmc. This is the second run in
a row that the ECMWF has been farther south so have allowed for a
slight southward adjustment in the pops. Thermal fields suggest
mainly rain with this initial wave. However, it does look like we
will cool off enough across about the northern third of our area to
allow for a transition to a wintery mix later Monday night into
Tuesday morning, depending on how far north the precipitation makes
it. Highs on Monday will range from the upper 40s north to the mid
50s across the south. Some cooler air will begin to be pulled in on
the backside of the low later Monday night and Tuesday, leading to
highs on Tuesday in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The surface low will will eventually evolve into more of an inverted
trough nosing up into our area through Wednesday as the mid and
upper level energy shifts off to the east coast. However, there
remains quite a bit of difference between the 00z ECMWF with this
and the remaining suite of models. The ECMWF remains much weaker and
farther southeast although it appears the cmc and to a lesser
extent, the GFS have also trended somewhat weaker and more
southeast. As a result, will trim back pops a bit for Tuesday night
into Wednesday night and allow for more of a southeast shift. Ptype
will remain an issue depending on how much cooler air gets pulled
down into the area. For now, will allow for a rain snow mix in the
south to mainly snow in the north. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
mid 30s to lower 40s.

High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the area for
Thursday with highs mainly in the 40 to 45 degree range. As the high
moves east, high temperatures by Friday will moderate into the mid
to upper 40s. A warm front lifting up from the southwest could lead
to a chance of rain late in the day on Friday.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
The main band of precipitation in association with the
isentropic upglide is currently pushing through the TAF sites
with ra being reported to the south and fzra and up being
reported towards the north. The back edge of this band of
precipitation has already moved past kcvg kluk with kiln and
kday almost done for now.

An area of surface low pressure will move east across kentucky
today with weak returns on the radar possible this afternoon.

Forecast soundings on the hrrr shows dry air moving into the
region though so thinking is impacts will be minimal to the
terminals. Later this evening the deformation axis will be
moving southeast or away from the region allowing for skies to
quickly clear.

Outlook... MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from
Monday night through Wednesday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... Winter weather advisory until noon edt today for ohz026-034-

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Haines
near term... Haines novak
short term... Haines
long term... Jgl
aviation... Haines

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY9 mi27 minE 810.00 miOvercast34°F30°F85%1011.4 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH20 mi26 minNE 49.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F30°F92%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from CVG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN10NE11NE10E7NE9NE9E9NE9NE8NE11E7E7E5E6E7E9E8E7E9E5E7E6E7E8
1 day agoW9W13W9W13
2 days agoW11W10W13W10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.