Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 4:13 PM   Moonset 3:16 AM

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FXUS61 KILN 190537 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 137 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday, with a chance of showers and storms returning as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance for showers and storms is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, with slightly cooler conditions for the second half of the workweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
For the overnight hours, mostly clear skies and light to calm winds can be expected. There will be some patchy to areas of fog, but most of this should be relegated to the river valleys.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Narrow mid level and surface ridges to build into the area Sunday. This will allow for dry and mostly sunny sky conditions.
A warm day is in store for the region with highs generally in the mid 80s.

The mid level ridge axis looks to continue protecting the area from pcpn Sunday night. Axis of weak instability will slip into areas to the north around the periphery of the ridge. Have a few mid level clouds spilling into the northwest with lows from 60 to 65.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Warm conditions with highs in the 80s will be in place Monday and Tuesday with the potential for a few pop up showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will approach on Wednesday and move through Wednesday night into Thursday. There will be the potential for severe weather on Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty with the strength of this system and timing. Due to this, held off on adding to the HWO at this time until more details are resolved.

After the passage of the front cooler will conditions will be in place for Thursday with highs generally in the 70s. There is still model variance and uncertainty for Friday into Saturday on whether a cooler and drier pattern will set up or whether there will be a surge in moisture from the south. Continued to limit precipitation chances to the chance category until models come more in line.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Although a few patches of Cu (and a very spotty SHRA) continue to linger about the area, mainly clear skies should prevail through daybreak and beyond. The only other caveat to this will be the potential for BR/FG to develop, especially in area river valleys (KLUK) and other prone areas (such as at KILN/KLCK). The best potential for IFR/LIFR VSBYs will be at KLUK in the several hour period around daybreak.

After the BR/FG burns off/dissipates, VFR conditions will resume area-wide by 13z-14z. Some FEW/SCT VFR Cu will sprout about by the afternoon, with the greatest coverage expected across the W for KDAY/KCVG/KLUK. The Cu should linger a bit past sunset, especially near KDAY, as a weak frontal boundary and a few SHRA nudges closer in from the NW toward the end of the period.

Light/VRB winds will prevail through the period, going more out of the NNE around 5kts during the daytime.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Wednesday into Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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Wilmington, OH,