Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:17 AM

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FXUS63 KEAX 281141 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 641 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms with heavy rain will affect the area overnight.
Flooding/flash flooding will be the main hazards. Heaviest rainfall looks to be south of I-70

- Additional thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Coverage looks more scattered in nature. Threat of severe weather also looks lower.

- Quiet weather expected Monday before more rounds of thunderstorms, potentially severe, affect the area Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Today-Tonight: A deep upper-level trough will continue to slowly lift to the northeast across NE/KS/NW MO/IA. With upper-level ridging to our east, the area will be in the right-rear quadrant of the upper jet. In the low and mid levels, we'll see persistent moist isentropic ascent across eastern KS and western MO. The combination of low to mid-level ascent with upper-level diffluence will help keep precipitation lingering through much of the day. Even if precipitation dissipates, we should still see cloud cover in this regime. All of this will limit the recovery of the airmass over the area. As a result we'll see much less CAPE today than the previous couple of days. HRRR probabilities show high probabilities of SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg but little or no chance for SBCAPE over 2000 J/kg. So feel confident we'll see 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE by the afternoon.
Deep-layer shear will continue to be strong with 40-50 kts likely. As the surface front moves through the area late this afternoon to early this evening, storms should develop along/ ahead of it. Given the strong shear and modest instability, a few severe storms look possible. Overall coverage looks scattered and with the front advancing eastward, more progressive.

Monday - Monday Night: A drier air mass will move into the area Monday behind the cold front. This will allow a short reprieve in the precipitation chances before the next system begins to affect the region Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Tuesday - Late in the Week: The drier surface high that moved through the area Monday will move into the Southeast by Tuesday afternoon. A lee trough will deepen in the high Plains, in response to the next system moving in from Intermountain West. This will tighten the pressure gradient over the central and eastern Plains and allow for southerly flow to develop. That will help advect moisture back northward into the area in time for the next shortwave trough to interact with it. With the moisture returning to the area and temperatures warming into the 80s, it looks like moderate instability will build, with potentially 2000-2500+ J/kg of MLCAPE. Strong westerly mid and upper-level flow will result in deep-layer shear of 30-40 kts. Given this, it looks like there is some potential for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon/ evening. Unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week as troughing deepens over the western half of the CONUS. Persistent southerly flow will allow moisture to stream northward into the area. It's not until the weekend when precipitation chances diminish as cooler and drier air move into the middle of the country.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Widespread rain across the region will gradually shift east today. Expect MVFR ceilings to develop this morning, with the potential for a few pockets of reduced visibility; however, gradient winds should be strong enough out of the southeast to limit potential. Isolated to scatted thunderstorms are possible after 20Z, but coverage is expected to be sparse enough to preclude mention at any particular point at this time. VFR ceilings return after 00Z Monday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ021>023- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ057-060- 103>105.

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