Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 2:55 AM   Moonset 2:11 PM

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FXUS63 KEAX 032328 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 628 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Updated 00z Aviation

KEY MESSAGES

- A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for overnight into early tomorrow morning. Isolated strong storms may be possible.

- There is a potential for strong to severe storms on Monday.
All hazards are possible.

- Additional rounds of rain may cause river flooding to continue.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

There is currently a progressive longwave pattern over CONUS with strong ridging in the east and troughing in the northern Great Plains region. The upper level jet is rounding the base of the trough from Nebraska curving into Minnesota. There is currently a west-southwesterly flow over the region. At the surface, there is high pressure just to the north of the area resulting in easterly winds. SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows increased 850MB flow into southern Nebraska. Added effects of diurnal heating results in wind gusts as high as 15-20 mph through the afternoon.

Tonight, a smaller, quickly-moving shortwave trough will merge with the trough to the north of our area. The warm front associated with the smaller shortwave is expected to impact the area later tonight.
This will result in low temperatures being ~10 degrees warmer than last night as warm air advects with southerly winds. As the surface cold front approaches the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible out ahead and along the frontal boundary. With MUCAPE values ranging from 1,000-1,500 J/kg and bulk shear around 30-35 knots, there may be a chance for a few strong thunderstorms with strong winds and hail. At this time, the main threat is expected to be further west. However, with the consistent rainfall we have been having, pooling and ponding along roadways may be possible. SPC has recognized this by putting our area in a marginal chance for severe weather for this time period. Frontal passage is expected tomorrow afternoon. With cooler, drier air pushing in behind the front, expect high temperatures to be a little cooler than yesterday with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Sunday, decent mid level ridging builds in behind the trough resulting in high pressure at the surface across northern Missouri.
Meanwhile, a surface cyclone tracks across the Ozarks Sunday resulting in a chance for some showers for areas south of I-70.
High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s while low temperatures are forecasted to stay in the 50s.

On Monday, the mid level ridging shifts slowly to the east as another trough enters central CONUS and becomes more negatively- tilted. By late Monday evening, winds will shift to the south as our region enters the warm sector of the associated surface warm front.
As a result of this, return-flow from the Gulf will help to slowly destabilize the environment. The surface front is expected to pass through overnight into Tuesday. With the passage of this front showers and thunderstorms are expected. CAPE values around this time range from 2,000 J/kg to 3,000 J/kg which suggest plenty of instability for convective activity. With bulk shear values exceeding 40 knots, there will ample shear to aid in storm organization as well as create a favorable environment for large hail and damaging winds. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger into early Tuesday morning as the system moves east.

Tuesday, the pattern continues its unsettled trend as multiple shortwaves pass through by the end of the week. The trough continues its track northerly and then begins to linger in southern Minnesota.
As multiple shortwaves eject from the stagnant trough, chances for showers remain through next week. By next weekend the trough finally begins to shift south and becomes positively-tilted as it moves to the southeast of the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR conditions forecast for the remainder of the evening. Line of showers and thunderstorms expected to develop in Central Kansas overnight and should arrive at the terminals early Saturday morning. Thunderstorms weaken as they move across eastern Kansas. Therefore, have placed showers in the forecast with thunderstorm in the vicinity. If trends indicate thunderstorms to prevail as they move through the terminals, 06z TAF issuance will be able to address more specific timing. As showers come through and pass, a brief period of IFR ceilings are possible.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.

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