Monday, June17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Merriam, KS

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:48PM Monday June 17, 2019 4:53 PM CDT (21:53 UTC) Moonrise 8:15PMMoonset 5:10AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Merriam, KS
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location: 38.98, -94.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Fxus63 keax 171940
afdeax
area forecast discussion
national weather service kansas city pleasant hill mo
240 pm cdt Mon jun 17 2019

Discussion
Issued at 239 pm cdt Mon jun 17 2019
satellite, radar, and surface observations all indicate a vertically
stacked low pressure system over southern missouri. This has caused
scattered showers and storms over central missouri with a somewhat
training pattern with little to no storm motion in that area.

Marginal MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 j kg is allowing continual
development of convection, but a complete lack of wind shear will
keep any severe weather threat at bay. The main threat with these
storms will be flooding as they continue to develop over the same
area on the n-ne side of the upper level with rain rates of 0.5-1"
per hour with 1-3" of rainfall in the last 6 hours over southern
saline, howard, and cooper counties. Due to this, a flood advisory
has been issued through 4pm today which could be extended if we
continue raining in that area. The main flash flooding concerns look
to be more in st. Louis and springfield areas over the next few
hours so caution needs to be taken if traveling through central
missouri and along i-70 east of columbia. This threat will quickly
subside as the low pushes off to the east this afternoon with a weak
area of surface convergence possibly kicking off a storm or two in
the western kc metro area. These storms look to be isolated in
nature and only lasting a few hours so no significant threat is
expected outside of lightning, heavy downpours, and isolated
flooding. Mid level ridging will build into the area Tuesday ahead
of a shortwave trough exiting the rockies which will be a major
player going into Wednesday morning.

Synoptically things are setting up well for a possible flooding
event over the kc metro and ks mo border Tuesday night into
Wednesday. An analysis of satellite derived pwat values indicate
higher pwat values in the mid and upper levels over the rockies now
from the pacific. As the shortwave trough exits into the plains
cyclogenesis is expected to occur quickly with a LLJ forming up over
ks Tuesday evening. This will help transport the ll moisture into
our area and drive overall pwat values up near 2" as this moisture
plume combines with the mid and upper level moisture. Plenty of
forcing with strong ll convergence and upper level lifting will set
up a possible MCS with a MCV like feature pushing into the area
around midnight on Tuesday. Models are not in full agreement on the
axis of higher qpf, but all of them have somewhere along the ks mo
border getting a solid 2-3" in 6 hours with the namnest indicating 4-
5" localized areas possible. The main concern would be for all that
qpf to fall over the kc metro with instant runoff causing potential
flash flooding and quick rises in the creeks and rivers. This
pattern will need to be watched for trends in the next 24 hours as a
flash flood watch may be issued if guidance continues with this
consistent wet signal. Wrap around moisture from this low pressure
may cause some rain issues again Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, which may only aggravate any flooding that has already
occurred.

Mid level ridging will push into the area Thursday ahead of a
shortwave trough keeping the area somewhat dry Thursday afternoon. A
strong LLJ Friday morning may bring the remnants of a MCS through
northern missouri causing a wet Friday north of the missouri river.

Southwest flow aloft sets up going into next weekend making for a
possible active pattern with even a severe weather set up trying to
form Saturday if the shear can get here in time for storm
initiation.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1228 pm cdt Mon jun 17 2019
the MVFR ceilings hanging around the missouri river look to last a
couple hours before rising into aVFR ceilings. These conditions
will last through most of the evening into the overnight period
with a small chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
late afternoon. There is a high level of uncertainty to when and
where these showers may develop so they were not mentioned in the
tafs until confidence increases. A MVFR ceilings looks to form up
tomorrow morning, similar to how it did today lasting until early
afternoon.

Eax watches warnings advisories
Ks... None.

Mo... None.

Discussion... Barham
aviation... Barham


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Olathe, Johnson County Executive Airport, KS9 mi60 minE 610.00 miOvercast80°F68°F67%1012 hPa
Kansas City, Kansas City Downtown Airport, MO11 mi59 minE 9 G 1510.00 miA Few Clouds86°F63°F46%1011.7 hPa
Olathe, New Century Aircenter, KS14 mi60 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F64°F58%1012.2 hPa
Lee's Summit, Lee's Summit Municipal Airport, MO17 mi60 minE 1010.00 miA Few Clouds81°F66°F61%1012.5 hPa
Kansas City, Kansas City International Airport, MO24 mi60 minNNE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F63°F54%1012.4 hPa

Wind History from OJC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6W6SW5W4CalmSW3W3CalmS3CalmCalmNE6E4NE4NE5E7E7NE75E7E6NE6E7E6
1 day agoSW10
G18
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SW8S5S5S63W4NW7SE4CalmSW3W7W6S43NW4N8N63NW4S14
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2 days agoSW14
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CalmS3S9SW11
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G18
SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.