Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Merriam, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday May 23, 2019 12:48 AM CDT (05:48 UTC) Moonrise 11:58PMMoonset 9:04AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Merriam, KS
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location: 38.98, -94.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Fxus63 keax 230510
afdeax
area forecast discussion
national weather service kansas city pleasant hill mo
1210 am cdt Thu may 23 2019

Discussion
Issued at 344 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
message of the day: dangerous storms are expected to develop in a
somewhat narrow band from about tulsa, ok northeast to quincy, mo
(roughly between kc and springfield and kc and st. Louis).

Tornadoes, quarter to tennis ball sized hail, and wind gusts up to
65 mph are all possible. Storms should start developing after 4 pm
with the severe threat continuing through about 11 pm. A tornado
watch has been issued for linn county, ks up to macon county, mo
and only includes one kc metro county (cass county, mo) through 11
pm
we have been able to have a nice break from the showers and storms
today, thanks to the low pressure system moving out early this
morning. This will be short lived though due to a shortwave trough
moving overhead and a southwest to northeast oriented convergent
boundary working its way north into parts of our area. This
feature will be the focus for storm development this afternoon and
evening. Current thinking is the boundary will generally set up
along a line from blue mound, ks up to kirksville, mo. Both a cape
and effective bulk shear gradient also looks to be setting up
along this line. CAPE should be about 1500 j kg with deep layer
shear around 55 kts. When looking at hodographs and soundings, the
shear is more speed shear than directional, however, the
intensity of the speed shear is likely to compensate for the lack
of directional shear, therefore, storms with broad rotation is
expected. In addition, low level lapse rates look to be near 9-10
c km with SRH around 200 m2 s2. With all this said, discrete,
supercellular like storms are expected initially and then they
should merge into a multi cell line within a few hours after
initiation. A few tornadoes, hail quarter to tennis ball sized,
and damaging winds up to 65 mph are all on the table today. The
greatest severe risk, especially for tornadoes and the largest
hail, is going to be right along and east of the convergent
boundary from about butler, mo to boonville, mo. As of 3 pm, radar
is starting to pick up weak returns. We expected storms to
develop within the next hour or so with the severe weather risk
moving east as the evening GOES on, lasting through about 11 pm in
central mo. Storm chances though will likely continue through
much of the night, mainly for our far southern counties. Those
north of kc and west of i-35 should stay dry tonight and tomorrow
morning.

As for rainfall and flooding concerns, there is a lot of moisture in
the atmosphere with pwat values up to 1.5 inches. Therefore, an
additional 1-2 inches of rain is expected to fall from miami
county, ks to howard county, mo. With the expected rainfall and
rain that has fallen over the past few days, a flash flood watch
has been issued for tonight, starting at 7 pm through 10 am
tomorrow. As for about johnson county, mo up to adair county, mo
up to about 1 inch of rain is possible.

Overnight, a cold front like feature will move through, eventually
stalling, orienting itself west to east, across southern mo. This
and additional shortwave troughs will keep rain chances going
tomorrow morning. On and off showers and storms are then expected
to continue tomorrow night through the holiday weekend thanks to
persistent southerly surface flow and low pressure systems on the
west coast continuously ejecting shortwave troughs into the
midwest. Severe weather is going to be possible both Thursday and
Friday and possibly Saturday with our storm chances. With that in
mind and it being a holiday weekend with many outdoor activities
planned, stay updated on the forecast and remain weather aware.

With the ground as saturated as it is and with additional rainfall
expected, flooding will continue to be a big concern.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1210 am cdt Thu may 23 2019
vfr conditions currently prevail at the state line terminals,
with those conditions persisting through around noon Thursday.

Expect clouds to move in and lower in the afternoon as the
potential for more showers and thunderstorms returns which will
prevail across the northwest corner of missouri Thursday evening.

Eax watches warnings advisories
Ks... Flash flood watch until 10 am cdt this morning for ksz057-060.

Mo... Flash flood watch until 10 am cdt this morning for moz025-032-
033-039-040-043>046-053-054.

Discussion... Grana
aviation... Cutter


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Olathe, Johnson County Executive Airport, KS9 mi56 minNNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F59°F90%1013.6 hPa
Kansas City, Kansas City Downtown Airport, MO11 mi55 minN 310.00 miA Few Clouds63°F57°F84%1013.4 hPa
Olathe, New Century Aircenter, KS14 mi56 minNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F57°F90%1013.8 hPa
Lee's Summit, Lee's Summit Municipal Airport, MO17 mi56 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F60°F93%1013.4 hPa
Kansas City, Kansas City International Airport, MO24 mi56 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F51°F78%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from OJC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10
G20
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S8S7SW6SW4SW5SW9SW8SW8SW9
G21
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SW10CalmW3S4CalmS3SE10NW4NW4
1 day agoE15
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W7NE12NE12
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S13S12SE13S17
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2 days agoN11N7NE8N5N6NE4NE3NE11E7E10
G18
NE7NE8E11NE11NE10NE14
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E15
G29

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.