Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Merriam, KS

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Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:08PM Sunday August 19, 2018 9:10 AM CDT (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 2:22PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Merriam, KS
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location: 38.98, -94.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Fxus63 keax 191124
afdeax
area forecast discussion
national weather service kansas city pleasant hill mo
624 am cdt Sun aug 19 2018

Discussion
Issued at 258 am cdt Sun aug 19 2018
mid upper level trough has carved its way into the mean flow
aloft, and is roughly centered over the northern high plains this
am. As the day progresses this trough will continue to carve into
the the flow and become well established over the central plains
by later this afternoon. This trough will become the focus for a
round or several rounds of rain and thunderstorms later this
afternoon and evening.

At the surface winds have responded to the surface troughing
which is taking place across the high plains in response to the
mid level wave approaching the area. This surface trough will
become more established through the day and eventually push
eastward, causing winds to be generally out of the southeast
through the day. This low does not appear to be especially deep,
so winds will not be very strong, per the usual for a system such
as this during the spring or fall seasons. The surface low level
trough will act as a moisture conveyor belt to draw deeper
moisture northward through the morning, which will cause some
gradual cloudiness into the late morning to early afternoon.

Isentropic ascent in the h7 to h5 layer will cause clouds to form
in that layer first, then eventually build down through the day as
richer moisture moves in. This slow saturation of the atmospheric
column will cause rain to hold off likely until at least the late
afternoon, if not early evening. Despite deterministic models
pumping out measurable rain as early as noon or 1 pm, forecast
soundings indicate a very dry low mid atmosphere until the 2-4 pm
timeframe, which is the current target of this forecast for onset
of rain across eastern kansas and western missouri. As the mid
level low approaches this evening better forcing for ascent will
accompany and more intense rainfall will ensue.

Given the tropical nature of the thermal moisture profile, do not
expect much instability to build in anticipation of the better
forcing. Forecast soundings indicate rather modest lapse rates and
deep saturation, which should yield fairly efficient rain rates,
and while instability is fairly marginal there should be at least
some embedded thunderstorms within the larger stratiform rain
area. Pwat values will likely approach 1.5 to 2 inches, which also
indicates the potential for efficient rain rates. Given the
projected track of the mid upper level low, expect the best
chances for the heavier rain to occur across northern missouri,
more specifically north of i-70. Most recent model runs have
indicated that given the track of the low the dry slot, typically
attendant with a closed synoptic system such as this one, will run
right through the i-70 corridor and points south, which would
effectively end the chances for moderate to heavy rain. The one
caveat to this is that south of the stacked low pressure system a
convective element to the rain may occur, mainly along the wind
shift boundary. This may bolster rain amounts further south, but
the convective nature of the storms could by rather spotty, so the
higher amounts could be pretty isolated. However, north of the dry
slot, across northern missouri, where the moisture deformation
band will likely form persistent and widespread moderate rain
should continue well into the night on Sunday night, and again
given the efficient nature of the atmosphere, this could yield
precipitation amounts north of i-70 well over an inch, perhaps
approaching 2 to 3 inches. Considering the extreme drought in
place, this kind of moisture is very much welcomed. Given the
dryness of the ground where the higher rain amounts are
anticipated have forgone any flooding headline for now.

Through the night on Sunday night into Monday morning off and on
rain may continue along and south of i-70, and another round of
light rain may occur Monday as the deformation band clips the kc
metro area and points along i-70. The main low then moves out of
the area by Monday night, which will end the rain chances from
west to east. By Tuesday a stiff cold front will push into and
through the area as surface ridging dominates the central part of
the CONUS through the middle part of the week. As a result, expect
temperatures to be very mild, with highs generally remaining in
the upper 70s to perhaps as high as the middle 80s through
Thursday. By Friday near normal temperatures return as surface
troughing returns, and southerly winds push back in. The next
appreciable chance for rain comes late in the week as another mid
level wave approaches the area. This chance of rain does not
appear to be as robust as the Sunday Monday system, but we will
take what we can get.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 622 am cdt Sun aug 19 2018
still anticipating showers and thunderstorms at all terminals
later today. While showers may begin as early as the early
afternoon, it's more likely that they hold off until the late
afternoon or early evening before the light to moderate rain
reaches the surface. Could see a few thunderstorms with this
activity before it moves out. Should also see some reduced cig vis
through the evening and overnight hours. Not anticipating ifr
cig's but could see some brief ifr vis with any passing moderate
to heavy shower.

Eax watches warnings advisories
Ks... None.

Mo... None.

Discussion... Leighton
aviation... Leighton


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Olathe, Johnson County Executive Airport, KS9 mi17 minSSE 710.00 miFair73°F68°F84%1012 hPa
Kansas City, Kansas City Downtown Airport, MO11 mi16 minE 310.00 miFair77°F66°F69%1011.7 hPa
Olathe, New Century Aircenter, KS14 mi17 minSE 810.00 miFair74°F68°F82%1012 hPa
Lee's Summit, Lee's Summit Municipal Airport, MO17 mi17 minSE 710.00 miFair75°F68°F79%1012.4 hPa
Kansas City, Kansas City International Airport, MO24 mi17 minSE 79.00 miOvercast75°F68°F79%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from OJC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm3CalmCalm5E5S5SE3SE5E4SE7E5SE4SE5SE4SE5SE5SE4SE5SE5SE5SE7SE7
1 day ago5NW7NW10N10NE10NW9
G20
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NE7NE4NE3CalmCalmNW5N4N5NE3CalmCalmN3CalmN3Calm
2 days agoW35SE3SW4S4S7SE6SW7SW5CalmSW5SW11
G22
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G15
W3NW4SW3CalmSW3W4NW4N4NW4NW4N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.