Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 3:21 AM   Moonset 3:25 PM

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FXUS63 KEAX 042311 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 611 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Line of strong to severe thunderstorms expected late Monday evening through the overnight. Damaging wind, hail, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

- Heavy and persistent rainfall with thunderstorms Monday night may result in increased flooding and flash flooding potential.

- Active weather pattern continues Tuesday through the end of next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Mid-level short wave trough continues to lift east-northeast from Nebraska into Iowa this afternoon, with surface ridging building into eastern Kansas into Missouri, post surface frontal passage. 18Z analysis reveals the surface front has reached the Ozark Plateau.
Behind the front, northwest winds remain breezy, with stratus spread across most of the region. Dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the day, with highs in the mid-60s for most, reaching the mid-70s for those with abundant sunshine this afternoon.

Sunday, a deepening western trough will emerge into the Inter- Mountain West through the morning. What little brief mid-level ridging we had will be interrupted by an H500 short wave tracking off the Southern Plains into the Ozarks through midday. Guidance has maintained rather consistent solutions, lifting the short wave along the Boston Mountains and onto the Ozark Plateau through the day.
This should keep the bulk of precipitation/storm chances well to the south of our region, but will keep slight to chance PoPs in place along the Truman to Lake of the Ozarks region to account for the track of this system. No severe weather is expected this far north given lack of appreciable instability and shear.

Monday, conditions look ripe for severe convection across the Central Plains. The western trough mentioned above will pivot and take on a strong negative tilt as it enters the western High Plains through Monday morning. With unobstructed return flow from the gulf, a moisture rich boundary layer, and steepening mid-level lapse rates, a ribbon of robust instability will develop from south central Nebraska, south, through Kansas. MLCAPE values will push 1500 to 3500 J/Kg). Increasingly favorable wind profiles will result in 40 to 55 kts of 0-6km bulk shear. Initial convection will more than likely be single cell, supercellular in nature, and given the thermodynamic profiles at play, they will be capable of large damaging hail, upwards of baseball size, perhaps larger. The tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as 0-1km helicity increases across southeast Nebraska and south-southwest across eastern Kansas.
0-1 km helicity values approach 200 m^2/S^2. As storms move across eastern Kansas through the early evening, the expectation is for them to grow upscale into a more linear mode. This is what the focus will be on for our region. Mid-range solutions suggest the line of storms arriving into far eastern Kansas and western Missouri between 8 and 10 PM CDT. Damaging winds will be primary concern with the surge of the line east through the late evening period. The risk of embedded QLCS spin-ups or maintained embedded supercellular structures early will exist given 0-3km shear in excess of 300 m^2/s^2 and 2000 J/Kg MLCAPE. It will be a bumpy Monday night as storms roll through.

Tuesday, storms will be lingering to the east, across central into eastern Missouri through the early morning. This activity may maintain a severe wind threat through the early morning. Generally the forecast for the remainder of the day is rather tricky given the broad H500 trough that will stretch from the west coast to the Great Lakes. Subtle short wave impulses riding the broader flow may result in continued chances for showers and storms. As the larger, parent trough, evolves east, an embedded short wave will emerge off the northern Plains and bring another chance for thunderstorms to the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Overall, the pattern remains unsettled through the end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Expect to see improvement in MVFR ceilings fairly quickly this evening with VFR expected around 01z. Otherwise light northerly winds through the night gradually turn more easterly tomorrow. Think any rain chances should stay mostly south of the TAF sites.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.

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