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FXUS63 KEAX 171654 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1154 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm Temperatures This Weekend

- Light Precipitation Chances Possible Saturday & Sunday

- Pattern Becomes Active Monday through Mid-Week

DISCUSSION
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Notable jet streak along the Gulf Coast with another in the Pacific Northwest has resulted in a split-flow regime keeping the bulk of our forecast area removed from any substantial forcing. Some of the upper-level moisture from the system close to the Gulf has been transported into the area which has been providing cloud cover during the overnight hours. H5 trough axis along the Gulf Coast will continue to move eastward while short-wave trough over the Northern Rockies is set to lift into Canada. This will result in H5 height rises across the bulk of our forecast area this afternoon with increasing AVA, resulting in subsidence that will aid in clearing skies out and result in the beginning stages of surface anticyclone development. Weak convergence is possible in our far southern and southeastern counties this afternoon on the periphery of the moisture axis, but most CAM guidance keeps the shower activity closer to the Interstate 44 corridor. Synoptic scale ensemble suites hold between a 10 to 20 percent chance for any measurable precipitation from Bates County [MO] to Cooper County [MO], and under 10 percent for a QPF threshold of 0.10 inches. Most CAMs remain dry. Temperatures this afternoon will generally be in the lower 80s as the flow, although weak, will be southwesterly. Inner- quartile spread amongst NBM members and other ensemble suites is narrow, between 80 and 82 for most points in our forecast area.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds light for most of the afternoon.

Saturday, system lifting into Canada drags a cold front across the northern Plains and into portions of the Missouri River Valley.
However, a short-wave perturbation near the Four Corners Region helps to amplify H5 height rises across the Lower Missouri Valley that will eventually stall cold front progress and place it over the Upper Midwest region, allowing stronger surface anticyclone across Central Plains into the lower Missouri River Valley. This will keep conditions dry for most of Saturday afternoon. Southwesterly flow should increase in magnitude Saturday afternoon providing WAA and increased boundary layer mixing resulting in another warm day across the area. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s expected for most points in our area, with inner-quartile spread amongst various ensemble only demonstrating about 3 degrees of spread, with values between 84 and 87. The H5 ridge axis will cross through our CWA by mid-evening on Saturday. Strong PV anomaly over the Pacific Northwest will continue to provide general troughing over the northwestern CONUS that results in a short-wave trough and compact vort max ejecting across the Central CONUS late Saturday into early Sunday. This will result in subtle height falls throughout otherwise southwesterly mid-level flow that could result in a few light showers in the northwestern third of our CWA Saturday evening. GEFS and other ensemble suite probabilities for measurable precipitation (at least 0.01 inches) continue to trend upward through Sunday evening, though probabilities for exceeding 0.10 inches Sunday evening are below 10 percent. Rainfall for Sunday evening may also depend on how far south the cold front from the northern system is able to travel before stalling out somewhere in Iowa.

Monday, first short-wave trough and compact vort max moves across the area and will increase precipitation chances across at least the northwest two-thirds of the CWA and may even bring activity across the entire area. Ensemble probabilities for at least 0.10 inches of rain jump above 90 percent Monday and into portions of Tuesday. The strong PV anomaly maintains persistent troughing over the Pacific Northwest keeping mid-level southwesterly flow through much of next week, with multiple short-wave troughs progged to eject across the Central Plains into the lower Missouri River Valley. Expecting a few of these short-waves to promote strong dCVA and notable surface cyclogenesis that will bring multiple rounds of precipitation, with probabilities well above 90 percent for measurable rainfall multiple times through the middle of the next work week. With strong WAA and theta-e advection, potential for strong to severe storms will be present, along with a stronger shear associated with stronger mid-level kinematic forcing. At this time, there is still too much uncertainty to pinpoint any particular wave that could bring activity, and therefore will not dive deeply into the mesoscale environment. Ensemble probabilities for MLCAPE above 1000 J/kg remain very high into next week. The main question will be if the main troughing over the Intermountain West lifts before the better forcing reaches our area, leaving more robust weather over the Central Plains, or if it will extend far enough east. WPC Cluster Analysis indicates medium-high confidence in overall troughing that will provide the mid-level southwesterly flow through next week, but does vary in the intensity of the trough which usually impacts how far it will dig and propagate before lifting. As for QPF, there are some ensemble members hinting at the potential some events to exceed 2" of rainfall, which with higher PWATS next week could be achieved if the forcing is enough to create robust thunderstorm activity. If we do not realize severe convection with respect to wind and hail next week, we could still see hydro related issues from efficient rainfall production.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period with scattered cumulus cloud decks building in during the daytime. Otherwise, mostly clear skies will be observed over the terminals through the evening and overnight hours. Winds will be light and predominately out of the south at around 5-8 knots.



EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.

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