Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Yerington, NV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:40PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 9:23 AM PST (17:23 UTC) Moonrise 8:13PMMoonset 8:38AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yerington, NV
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location: 39.15, -119     debug


Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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Fxus65 krev 201103
afdrev
area forecast discussion
national weather service reno nv
303 am pst Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Another cold low pressure system will bring more snow showers
today, producing possible slick road conditions, with lake effect
snow bands again possible late tonight through Thursday. Cold
conditions will continue with another chance of snow showers this
weekend.

Short term
Only minor adjustments to speed up the arrival of the cold front
and snow showers across western nv this morning. Satellite imagery
showed the nose of a 150 kt upper jet advancing quickly southward
along the west coast with the leading edge of colder air aloft
moving into northeast ca and northwest nv early this morning. The
nam was most aggressive in pushing snow showers down to the i-80 hwy
50 corridors by daybreak. While the main band of snow showers will
probably occur a little later in the morning early afternoon,
increasing radar returns to the north of reno lend some credence
to the nam. However, there is a break between this band and the
main one farther north and thus it will likely only produce very
light snow as it passes. We have pushed up the winter weather
advisory for the reno-carson city area to later this morning
(well after the main morning commute).

For this morning, impacts will be greatest across northeast ca and
northwest nv where snow will begin falling before the Sun has a
chance to reach a mitigating angle to work on road surfaces. So
while snow amounts are going to be generally light (generally 2"
or less, with locally up to 4"), cold surface temperatures at the
onset will promote slick road conditions for the morning commute in
these areas. As the main band of snow showers works farther south
into the i-80 and hwy 50 corridors later in the morning early
afternoon, impacts will be greatest above about 5000 feet and
generally where short bursts of heavier snow showers occur. Travel
over the sierra passes and in the foothills around the reno-
carson city area would be impacted with lesser impacts for the
lowest elevations. However, a heavy burst of snow is still
possible even for these lower elevations which could cause a short
period of slushy roadways.

This afternoon and evening, the band will pass south into the
eastern sierra slopes of mono county and lower elevations of
mineral and southern lyon counties. This would occur as the sun
sets and thus have greater impacts to all elevations for the
evening commute generally south of highway 50. Again amounts for
much of western nv will be in the 1-2" range with local amounts up
to 4". We will continue the advisory for mineral and southern lyon
counties overnight as the band slows and gets absorbed into wrap
around of main upper low, keeping snow showers going a bit longer.

For the sierra, we are expecting 2-6" for the tahoe basin today,
and 1-4" for alpine-mono counties this afternoon-evening but this
is below advisory criteria for these areas. After the intense
snowfall amounts these areas received so far this month, it's
already common sense advice to drive slowly and allow extra travel
time if heading into the sierra. All the snow with this system
will be powdery with low moisture content, generally 15-18:1 snow
to liquid ratios.

For late tonight into Thursday, a brisk north flow will ensure
with isolated to scattered snow showers bringing additional light
accumulations, mainly south of i-80. Lower atmospheric conditions
become more favorable for lake effect snow bands to develop to the
south-southwest side of the larger lakes where an additional 2-6"
of snow will be possible. This could have implications for travel
along highways 50 89 near the southwest shore of lake tahoe, i-80
from reno to fernley and highway 95 near hawthorne. All snowfall
Thursday will be very fluffy.

Lake effect snow and other showers will come to an end Thursday
night as drier and very cold air settles into the region. Single
digits and teens will be common with subzero readings again for
the coldest valleys. For Friday-Friday night, dry and cool
conditions are expected with highs only in the 30s. Lows will
remain chilly, but not as bitter cold as this morning due to
expected areas of mid-high level cloud cover. Hohmann

Long term Saturday into next week...

a few changes were made to the forecast next week, and overall
forecaster confidence is very low for next week. It is low-moderate
for this weekend. The pattern is going to change with the east
pacific ridge likely to be undercut at some point next week. How
strong this undercut is has enormous implications on the forecast.

For the weekend, the slider that was forecast is no longer able to
drop as far south, with the front stalling anywhere from i-80 to
north of the oregon border. The first part of the undercut, although
weak, does help to stop the southward progression of the front.

Temperatures will remain below average, but not as cold as this
week. Trimmed back the chances of precip as well, except for near
the oregon border. That area will have the best chance for any
snowfall.

Next week, models and ensembles, aside from a couple outliers,
are showing more of an undercut. However, the amount varies from
weak to strong. Essentially there are 3 model camps. The gem with
a stronger polar jet, colder and a weak undercut with some
moisture. The ec has a weak undercut, but also a weaker polar jet
shunted further inland. The GFS fv3 have stronger undercuts with
some phasing between the subtropical and polar jets. The latter 2
are significantly wetter, the GFS especially so showing another
major storm. Also not helping matters is the formation of tropical
storm wutip southeast of guam, expected to become a strong
typhoon. If and when it recurves into the westerlies also affects
the forecast.

The ensembles show no preferred solution, and overlaying all the
possible solutions looks like a plate of spaghetti. Therefore, i'm
going with a blend of all with extremely low confidence. Overall the
forecast looks most like the gem, but warmer.

For Monday through Wednesday, I have broadbrushed the forecast with
a chance of precip in the sierra north of sonora pass and along the
oregon border. Everywhere else there is a slight chance. I have
slowly warmed temperatures more, and brought snow levels up some.

However, how fast they rise is wildly variable and most areas below
7000 feet will show a mix of rain snow by Wednesday to reflect the
uncertainty. X

Aviation
Main concern will be the band of snow that will move through during
the day. A 1-2 hour period of ifr lifr vis in sn is expected. Light
accumulations of up to 2 inches is possible at each terminal. Winds
will be north today with gusts to 20-25 kts continuing overnight.

More snow showers are expected tonight, but more localized except
near the larger area lakes after 08z (tahoe, pyramid, walker). Snow
showers will increase again Thursday, but remain scattered. Details
for each terminal below.

Krno kcxp kmev: expect some occasional -shsn after 16z, but no
accumulation and mainlyVFR. Expect the front to move through around
21z for krno and 22-23z for kcxp kmev. Runway accumulations up to 1
inch for krno kcxp as daytime passage is not favorable. Around 2
possible for kmev as the front will likely intensify a bit due to
local effects as is typical for sliders. This should overcome the
unfavorable time of day to some extent.

Ktvl ktrk: light accumulations of 1-3 inches with passage of front
around 21z for ktrk and 23z for ktvl. Occasional -shsn with MVFR
cigs vis when not in the band. After 08z tonight, lake effect off
tahoe is expected and may impact ktvl for several hours of ifr lifr
if the band moves over the airfield. Several inches of snow possible
if this occurs.

Kmmh: passage of front is expected around 03z with light
accumulations of 1-2 inches. Upslope snow showers will increase
again after 08z, but will mainly be west of the terminal with only
occasional MVFR CIGS vis. X

Rev watches warnings advisories
Nv... Winter weather advisory until 11 am pst this morning nvz004-005.

Winter weather advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 3 am pst
Thursday nvz001.

Winter weather advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 pm pst this
evening nvz003.

Ca... Winter weather advisory until 11 am pst this morning caz070-071.

For more information from the national weather service visit...

http: weather.Gov reno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fallon, Naval Air Station, NV25 mi27 minW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F21°F57%1006.2 hPa

Wind History from NFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW7SW4W6SW75W5S4S6SE6SE7SE9SE8SE8SE8S7SE5SE6SW3NW4W5W10
G17
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1 day agoN6N7N8N10N7NE10N9NW5NW5NW7N8N3N4N6N3NW5NW6NW7NW6--CalmW3--W4
2 days agoSW8S8S455555SW7NE4NW5N7NW8NW7NW6NW4NW6N5NW5NW6NW6N5NW6NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Reno, NV (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Reno, NV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.