Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilkesville, OH
March 19, 2024 9:02 AM EDT (13:02 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:30 AM Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 1:20 PM Moonset 4:04 AM |
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 191043 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 643 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Mountain snow showers continue until daybreak. Dry and windy today with increased fire weather danger. Mainly dry into Friday. Fire weather danger returns Thursday afternoon.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 615 AM Tuesday...
Outside from a quick update to low temperatures, the forecast remains on track this morning.
As of 245 AM Tuesday...
Cold this morning, with breezy westerly winds, gusty at times across the mountains, behind a strong upper-level trough moving eastward. Lows in the teens and 20s paired with these winds will create some rather cold and brisk wind chills this morning: Widespread apparent temperatures in the teens and 20s across the lowlands; single digits and teens across the mountains, with negative values likely for locations such as Snowshoe and Kumbrabow State Park.
Winds will shift more southwesterly this afternoon as surface high pressure nudges in, subsequently moderating temperatures and drying RH values. Thinking blended guidance is a bit too high for what the actual values will be this afternoon. Went with a blend of ADJMET,CMCnh and the RAP13 which brought values close to NBM 10th Percentile: Low 20s across the lowlands with mid to upper 20s across the mountains; some lower values in the teens are possible. This paired with breezy to gusty winds this afternoon will create an increased risk for fire weather danger. Going to stick with the fire weather SPS for now, but if fuel moistures dry out a RFW may be needed.
Winds will increase through out the day due to strong NW flow aloft mixing down. A wind advisory starts tonight across the higher elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph counties to cover wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph. This will last through Wednesday and has the likelihood of being extended if strong gusts continue to be forecasted.
A clipper system will move through the flow aloft tonight bringing the chance for quick rain/snow showers to the northeastern foothills and mountains in WV. New snowfall is possible across the WV Ski Country with this, but will be less than an inch. All moisture should move out by the start of Wednesday with dry and windy conditions taking hold.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 AM Tuesday...
Key Points:
* Very light precipitation with strong gusty winds Wednesday * Strong afternoon mixing brings RHs values into the upper 20s * Enhanced Fire danger expected Wednesday afternoon and evening * Dry, becoming seasonably cold Wednesday night through Thursday night * RHs values drop into the lower 20s once again Thursday afternoon, with subsiding winds
Another upper-level trough pushes a weak cold front, entering our area from the northwest early Wednesday morning. These features will bring a reinforcement of CAA and an increase in northwest winds, creating good mixing conditions Wednesday afternoon and evening. Sprinkles or drizzle could be possible across the northern portions of WV with this front due to a shallow moisture layer. This lingering moisture will squeeze against the higher elevations of our northeast mountains, allowing for periods of light snow or rain through the evening hours.
Probabilistic guidance suggests only 20% of getting snow accumulations of 1 inch or greater ending Wednesday evening.
Dry, inverted V-shaped signature in local soundings suggest strong mixing under strong west northwest flow. This mixing will likely bring RH values into the mid 20s Mid-Ohio valley, and the lower 30s most parts of WV Wednesday afternoon and evening. The winds and the low RHs will pose fire concerns. Continued mentioning is Fire Weather Statement the high fire danger concerns for Wednesday under wind gusts 20 to 30 mph and dry conditions.
Drier air and some mixing bring RHs even lower, into the lower 20s Thursday afternoon and evening despite subsiding winds. As we loose the wind gusts, the fire threat decreases some. Expect good recovery in RH greater than 60% by midnight on both days.
Near normal high temperatures expected Wednesday under plenty of sunshine, generally in the mid to upper 50s lowlands, ranging into the lower 40s northeast mountains. CAA aloft and clear skies will allow overnight temperatures to drop into the lower 20s across the lowlands, ranging into the teens higher elevations of our northeast mountains.
Clear skies will persist into Thursday, allowing afternoon temperatures to be generally in the 40s. Lows Thursday night will drop into the upper to mid 20s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 349 AM Tuesday...
A surface low pressure approaches from the west Friday, with a warm front lifting north across the area Friday afternoon spreading rain showers north under WAA through Friday night. An associated cold front should arrive to the OH River by Saturday morning, pushing most of the precipitation over the eastern mountains by Saturday evening.
Another surface high pressure builds from the north on Sunday providing dry weather conditions into Monday, before next upper level disturbance arrive late Monday.
Near seasonable temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday amid a slow warming trend. For Monday, strong WAA ahead of a low pressure system could bring afternoon temperatures into the 70s across the lowlands.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 630 AM Tuesday...
Stratocumulus deck sprawling across the mountains and the northern lowlands is providing MVFR CIGs at sites BKW and EKN.
CIGs may be low VFR/borderline MVFR at sites CKB and PKB as lower deck moves over the next few hours. VFR will resume on the back side of this deck with all sites forecasted to be VFR by ~14-15Z and continuing the rest of the day.
West to southwest surface flow this afternoon will gust into the 20 to 25 kt range across the south; 25 to 30 kt range across the north and in the mountains. Tonight's gusts will remain to be much of the same, though gusts between 40 and 50 knots are possible across the higher ridges of the Allegheny Mountains.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate today. Timing of Improvement to VFR may vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.
FIRE WEATHER
Increased fire danger today across the forecast area. Surface high pressure bringing dry, moderating southwesterly flow to the area today, as strong NW flow aloft will mix more dry air down to the surface. Risk of fire start is elevated.
RH Percentages: Low 20s across the lowlands with mid to upper 20s across the mountains; some lower values in the teens are possible.
Winds: Southwest winds gusting between 20 and 30 mph, with higher gusts possible across the mountains, especially tonight.
Fuel Moistures: Most fuel stick moistures are adequate, above 8 gm, with the exception of Marlinton which is below this value.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 643 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Mountain snow showers continue until daybreak. Dry and windy today with increased fire weather danger. Mainly dry into Friday. Fire weather danger returns Thursday afternoon.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 615 AM Tuesday...
Outside from a quick update to low temperatures, the forecast remains on track this morning.
As of 245 AM Tuesday...
Cold this morning, with breezy westerly winds, gusty at times across the mountains, behind a strong upper-level trough moving eastward. Lows in the teens and 20s paired with these winds will create some rather cold and brisk wind chills this morning: Widespread apparent temperatures in the teens and 20s across the lowlands; single digits and teens across the mountains, with negative values likely for locations such as Snowshoe and Kumbrabow State Park.
Winds will shift more southwesterly this afternoon as surface high pressure nudges in, subsequently moderating temperatures and drying RH values. Thinking blended guidance is a bit too high for what the actual values will be this afternoon. Went with a blend of ADJMET,CMCnh and the RAP13 which brought values close to NBM 10th Percentile: Low 20s across the lowlands with mid to upper 20s across the mountains; some lower values in the teens are possible. This paired with breezy to gusty winds this afternoon will create an increased risk for fire weather danger. Going to stick with the fire weather SPS for now, but if fuel moistures dry out a RFW may be needed.
Winds will increase through out the day due to strong NW flow aloft mixing down. A wind advisory starts tonight across the higher elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph counties to cover wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph. This will last through Wednesday and has the likelihood of being extended if strong gusts continue to be forecasted.
A clipper system will move through the flow aloft tonight bringing the chance for quick rain/snow showers to the northeastern foothills and mountains in WV. New snowfall is possible across the WV Ski Country with this, but will be less than an inch. All moisture should move out by the start of Wednesday with dry and windy conditions taking hold.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 AM Tuesday...
Key Points:
* Very light precipitation with strong gusty winds Wednesday * Strong afternoon mixing brings RHs values into the upper 20s * Enhanced Fire danger expected Wednesday afternoon and evening * Dry, becoming seasonably cold Wednesday night through Thursday night * RHs values drop into the lower 20s once again Thursday afternoon, with subsiding winds
Another upper-level trough pushes a weak cold front, entering our area from the northwest early Wednesday morning. These features will bring a reinforcement of CAA and an increase in northwest winds, creating good mixing conditions Wednesday afternoon and evening. Sprinkles or drizzle could be possible across the northern portions of WV with this front due to a shallow moisture layer. This lingering moisture will squeeze against the higher elevations of our northeast mountains, allowing for periods of light snow or rain through the evening hours.
Probabilistic guidance suggests only 20% of getting snow accumulations of 1 inch or greater ending Wednesday evening.
Dry, inverted V-shaped signature in local soundings suggest strong mixing under strong west northwest flow. This mixing will likely bring RH values into the mid 20s Mid-Ohio valley, and the lower 30s most parts of WV Wednesday afternoon and evening. The winds and the low RHs will pose fire concerns. Continued mentioning is Fire Weather Statement the high fire danger concerns for Wednesday under wind gusts 20 to 30 mph and dry conditions.
Drier air and some mixing bring RHs even lower, into the lower 20s Thursday afternoon and evening despite subsiding winds. As we loose the wind gusts, the fire threat decreases some. Expect good recovery in RH greater than 60% by midnight on both days.
Near normal high temperatures expected Wednesday under plenty of sunshine, generally in the mid to upper 50s lowlands, ranging into the lower 40s northeast mountains. CAA aloft and clear skies will allow overnight temperatures to drop into the lower 20s across the lowlands, ranging into the teens higher elevations of our northeast mountains.
Clear skies will persist into Thursday, allowing afternoon temperatures to be generally in the 40s. Lows Thursday night will drop into the upper to mid 20s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 349 AM Tuesday...
A surface low pressure approaches from the west Friday, with a warm front lifting north across the area Friday afternoon spreading rain showers north under WAA through Friday night. An associated cold front should arrive to the OH River by Saturday morning, pushing most of the precipitation over the eastern mountains by Saturday evening.
Another surface high pressure builds from the north on Sunday providing dry weather conditions into Monday, before next upper level disturbance arrive late Monday.
Near seasonable temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday amid a slow warming trend. For Monday, strong WAA ahead of a low pressure system could bring afternoon temperatures into the 70s across the lowlands.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 630 AM Tuesday...
Stratocumulus deck sprawling across the mountains and the northern lowlands is providing MVFR CIGs at sites BKW and EKN.
CIGs may be low VFR/borderline MVFR at sites CKB and PKB as lower deck moves over the next few hours. VFR will resume on the back side of this deck with all sites forecasted to be VFR by ~14-15Z and continuing the rest of the day.
West to southwest surface flow this afternoon will gust into the 20 to 25 kt range across the south; 25 to 30 kt range across the north and in the mountains. Tonight's gusts will remain to be much of the same, though gusts between 40 and 50 knots are possible across the higher ridges of the Allegheny Mountains.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate today. Timing of Improvement to VFR may vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.
FIRE WEATHER
Increased fire danger today across the forecast area. Surface high pressure bringing dry, moderating southwesterly flow to the area today, as strong NW flow aloft will mix more dry air down to the surface. Risk of fire start is elevated.
RH Percentages: Low 20s across the lowlands with mid to upper 20s across the mountains; some lower values in the teens are possible.
Winds: Southwest winds gusting between 20 and 30 mph, with higher gusts possible across the mountains, especially tonight.
Fuel Moistures: Most fuel stick moistures are adequate, above 8 gm, with the exception of Marlinton which is below this value.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KUNI OHIO UNIVERSITY,OH | 7 sm | 27 min | SW 06 | 7 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow | 30°F | 18°F | 59% | 30.06 |
Charleston, WV,
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