Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilkesville, OH
May 7, 2024 8:06 AM EDT (12:06 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:20 AM Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 4:51 AM Moonset 7:21 PM |
FXUS61 KRLX 071038 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 638 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Daily chances for showers and storms continue, with the frequency of storms posing concern for localized flooding.
Severe storms are possible today and Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 638 AM Tuesday...
Minimal changes needed as temps and sky conditions remain on track this morning. Did opt to include areas of sprinkles across the southern half of the forecast area based on light radar returns streaming through the area.
As of 325 AM Tuesday...
Key Points:
* Potential for isolated to scattered severe storms late this afternoon into tonight.
* Mature storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.
* Locally heavy rain sustains a favorable environment for isolated flash flooding, especially in areas that have obtained an excessive amount of rain the past few days
A stationary boundary remains the root cause for unsettled weather today amid warm and humid conditions. At the time of writing, activity from the previous evening has faded and drifted out of the area, leaving behind a plethora of low level moisture to yield a canopy of low level stratus and instances of valley fog. Similar to previous mornings, the first part of today looks to remain fairly quiet under partly to overcast skies and perhaps a few mountainous showers before midday.
Attention then turns to the west later this afternoon and evening as isolated to scattered convection evolves along a potent low level jet. Strong to possibly severe weather will gradually stretch into the area during peak heating hours and prevail into this evening. The longevity of storms encroaching the forecast area tonight will be propelled by the jet and the presence of the aforementioned stationary boundary, but should gradually face a weakening trend late tonight as weak ridging aloft builds into the area. Main concerns with storms during this forecast period will be damaging wind, large hail, and a few tornadoes.
Deep southwesterly flow will usher in increasing moisture levels throughout the day and bring the return of daytime temperatures climbing back into the 70s/80s. Coupled with dewpoints in the 60s across the lower elevations, heavy downpours will likely accompany convection later today. PWATs on the order of 1.5 to 1.75 inches will once again fester over the area by this afternoon and evening.
Forecast soundings depict a fairly slow storm motion, imposing further concern of rapid development for flash flooding in areas that have already seen impacts from overly saturated soils the past two days across parts of eastern Kentucky. Strongly considered a Flood Watch for parts of the Ohio River Valley for late this afternoon into tonight, but will hold off for now as FFG recovers early this morning in the midst of minimal showers at the time of writing. As the frequency of showers/storms increases over the next 24-48 hours, a Watch is certainly not out of the question for Wednesday and Thursday.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 AM Tuesday...
A triple point low pressure system out over the Midwest will lift a front through the area starting this period. Frontal passage is forecast to occur across Wednesday as the front surges south and then lifts north as a warm front when the low gets closer to the area. Bouyancy associated in the warm sector will allow for possible thunderstorms some of which could become severe due to high wind shear. With mid to upper 60F dewpoints advecting in from the southwest the airmass is quickly going to recover and support thunderstorm activity throughout the day.
The aforementioned system will push in a cold front on Thursday which will have the ability to support supercell activity during the day. All hazards can be associated with this system as it is forecast to move across toward the northeast just grazing the northern periphery of our CWA Heavy downpours will be a thing to consider with flash flood guidance very low in certain area, especially along the Ohio River on the WV side. A few tornadoes cannot be ruled out of the broken line expected to enter the CWA from the southwest according to Hi-res models.
Damaging wind and large hail are possible as well with severe indices indicating high shear for prolong hail growth lifted in the updrafts, plenty of instability and high DCAPE values which will support downbursts potential. This activity will likely extent through the afternoon and evening on Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 230 AM Tuesday...
Wrap around flow from the aforementioned system will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms along the mountains and the rest of the area cannot be ruled out for that matter. Active weather will persist through the rest of the long term period as a system from the northwest is forecast to approach the area on Saturday and will likely wash out most of the weekend. But according to models they are very inconsistent on timing therefore went ahead and accepted central guidance equating to chances for thunderstorms and shower activity for the weekend, even though there is potential for more activity under a broad upper level low.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 638 AM Tuesday...
The area remains socked beneath low level stratus this morning with pockets of low visibility due to fog. Should see a slight improvement in ceilings to MVFR later on this morning and further into low-end VFR by the early afternoon. Showers and storms begin to sprout upstream in the Ohio Valley this afternoon and will propagate eastward into the area heading into this evening and tonight. Some storms may be capable of producing hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes in the event activity reaches severe thresholds. For aviation purposes, brief vsby reductions may also accompany convection today.
For tonight, storm activity winds down during the early morning hours Wednesday, leaving behind excessive moisture to support low ceilings once more. A strong low level jet moves into the region overnight and may promote LLWS across the area into Wednesday morning.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium, low within areas of fog.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceiling improvements may vary this morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H M H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms into Thursday, and in fog and stratus on mornings following showers and thunderstorms.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 638 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Daily chances for showers and storms continue, with the frequency of storms posing concern for localized flooding.
Severe storms are possible today and Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 638 AM Tuesday...
Minimal changes needed as temps and sky conditions remain on track this morning. Did opt to include areas of sprinkles across the southern half of the forecast area based on light radar returns streaming through the area.
As of 325 AM Tuesday...
Key Points:
* Potential for isolated to scattered severe storms late this afternoon into tonight.
* Mature storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.
* Locally heavy rain sustains a favorable environment for isolated flash flooding, especially in areas that have obtained an excessive amount of rain the past few days
A stationary boundary remains the root cause for unsettled weather today amid warm and humid conditions. At the time of writing, activity from the previous evening has faded and drifted out of the area, leaving behind a plethora of low level moisture to yield a canopy of low level stratus and instances of valley fog. Similar to previous mornings, the first part of today looks to remain fairly quiet under partly to overcast skies and perhaps a few mountainous showers before midday.
Attention then turns to the west later this afternoon and evening as isolated to scattered convection evolves along a potent low level jet. Strong to possibly severe weather will gradually stretch into the area during peak heating hours and prevail into this evening. The longevity of storms encroaching the forecast area tonight will be propelled by the jet and the presence of the aforementioned stationary boundary, but should gradually face a weakening trend late tonight as weak ridging aloft builds into the area. Main concerns with storms during this forecast period will be damaging wind, large hail, and a few tornadoes.
Deep southwesterly flow will usher in increasing moisture levels throughout the day and bring the return of daytime temperatures climbing back into the 70s/80s. Coupled with dewpoints in the 60s across the lower elevations, heavy downpours will likely accompany convection later today. PWATs on the order of 1.5 to 1.75 inches will once again fester over the area by this afternoon and evening.
Forecast soundings depict a fairly slow storm motion, imposing further concern of rapid development for flash flooding in areas that have already seen impacts from overly saturated soils the past two days across parts of eastern Kentucky. Strongly considered a Flood Watch for parts of the Ohio River Valley for late this afternoon into tonight, but will hold off for now as FFG recovers early this morning in the midst of minimal showers at the time of writing. As the frequency of showers/storms increases over the next 24-48 hours, a Watch is certainly not out of the question for Wednesday and Thursday.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 AM Tuesday...
A triple point low pressure system out over the Midwest will lift a front through the area starting this period. Frontal passage is forecast to occur across Wednesday as the front surges south and then lifts north as a warm front when the low gets closer to the area. Bouyancy associated in the warm sector will allow for possible thunderstorms some of which could become severe due to high wind shear. With mid to upper 60F dewpoints advecting in from the southwest the airmass is quickly going to recover and support thunderstorm activity throughout the day.
The aforementioned system will push in a cold front on Thursday which will have the ability to support supercell activity during the day. All hazards can be associated with this system as it is forecast to move across toward the northeast just grazing the northern periphery of our CWA Heavy downpours will be a thing to consider with flash flood guidance very low in certain area, especially along the Ohio River on the WV side. A few tornadoes cannot be ruled out of the broken line expected to enter the CWA from the southwest according to Hi-res models.
Damaging wind and large hail are possible as well with severe indices indicating high shear for prolong hail growth lifted in the updrafts, plenty of instability and high DCAPE values which will support downbursts potential. This activity will likely extent through the afternoon and evening on Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 230 AM Tuesday...
Wrap around flow from the aforementioned system will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms along the mountains and the rest of the area cannot be ruled out for that matter. Active weather will persist through the rest of the long term period as a system from the northwest is forecast to approach the area on Saturday and will likely wash out most of the weekend. But according to models they are very inconsistent on timing therefore went ahead and accepted central guidance equating to chances for thunderstorms and shower activity for the weekend, even though there is potential for more activity under a broad upper level low.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 638 AM Tuesday...
The area remains socked beneath low level stratus this morning with pockets of low visibility due to fog. Should see a slight improvement in ceilings to MVFR later on this morning and further into low-end VFR by the early afternoon. Showers and storms begin to sprout upstream in the Ohio Valley this afternoon and will propagate eastward into the area heading into this evening and tonight. Some storms may be capable of producing hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes in the event activity reaches severe thresholds. For aviation purposes, brief vsby reductions may also accompany convection today.
For tonight, storm activity winds down during the early morning hours Wednesday, leaving behind excessive moisture to support low ceilings once more. A strong low level jet moves into the region overnight and may promote LLWS across the area into Wednesday morning.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium, low within areas of fog.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceiling improvements may vary this morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H M H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms into Thursday, and in fog and stratus on mornings following showers and thunderstorms.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KUNI OHIO UNIVERSITY,OH | 7 sm | 11 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 64°F | 63°F | 94% | 29.84 |
Charleston, WV,
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