Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilkesville, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:11PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 8:39 AM EST (13:39 UTC) Moonrise 4:04PMMoonset 4:13AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilkesville, OH
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location: 39.18, -82.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 201127
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
627 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure, but lower moisture slow to clear. Remaining cool
through mid week, but modest warming and dry for the end of the
week. Strong system next weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 625 am Tuesday...

very few changes this morning. Dz has shown up in some of the
observations, and will keep this going forwards.

As of 220 am Tuesday...

currently in a post frontal environment with lower level
saturation and lingering showers, most numerous in the mountains
but extending back to the ohio river. Temperatures to fall, but
not overly quickly, as a colder airmass filters back into the
the middle ohio valley and central appalachians. Not a
traditional diurnal temperature curve for Tuesday, but as
temperatures trend lower through the period, a weak uptick
during peak heating can be expected. That said, not necessarily
all locations will have their MAX temperature during these
midday hours. It is likely that the mountains will just continue
to fall through the day and into the tonight period. This is
not an overly cold airmass by any means, as the thermal trough
setting up over the northeastern mountains will hit around -9c
at 850mb.

The hardest part of this forecast is the potential for
drizzle freezing drizzle for mainly the mountains and whether or
not to include it in the forecast. The depth of the lower level
moisture will shrink as high pressure builds in from the west,
and have the area without pops tonight.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
As of 235 am Tuesday...

overall, mainly dry and cool weather in the short term period,
with high pressure in control. A weak disturbance will move
across the northeast late Wednesday. Precipitation type is
difficult to pinpoint at this time, but model soundings and
forecast builder suggest an overall lack of significant
moisture depth, and thus elected to change previous snowfall
forecast to patchy drizzle.

Long term Friday night through Monday
As of 235 am Tuesday...

weather becomes more active in the long term period. There is
still quite a bit of uncertainty in the details of a low
pressure system and upper shortwave trough that will move into
the area in the Friday night through Saturday time frame.

Concern exists with the possibility of cold air damming along
the eastern slopes of the appalachians as moisture from the
approaching system moves into the region, creating the
possibility for a wintry mix late Friday night through Saturday
morning, before transitioning over to all rain by late Saturday
morning. In addition, strong southerly flow will result in high
moisture transport into the region, with heavy rain a good
possibility with the system. Have elected to go ahead and
introduce the possibility for the above mentioned hazards in the
hwo, and kept wintry accumulations to a minimum at this point,
due to the uncertainty in the situation.

Aviation 11z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 625 am Tuesday...

some ifr ceilings to linger for a few hours this morning, but
the general theme of the aviation forecast is very gradual
improvement to MVFR and ultimatelyVFR. Expect some
fluctuations from ifr to MVFR in these ceilings over the first
few hours, so an amendment or two may be necessary.

Precipitation, largely in the form of -dz over the lowlands,
will end while the mountain precipitation will linger. At ekn,
some -shrasn -fzdz is possible as well. Should seeVFR at all
terminals after 06z Wednesday.

Surface winds under 10kts.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Wednesday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: timing of ceiling improvements could vary.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Tue 11 20 18
utc 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
est 1hrly 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
crw consistency m m h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency m m h h h h h h h h m m
bkw consistency m m m m h m m m m m m m
ekn consistency m m h l h m h m l h h h
pkb consistency m h h h h h h h h h h m
ckb consistency h h m h h h h h h h h h
after 12z Wednesday...

ifr stratus possible late Wednesday Wednesday night. Ifr in
precipitation likely Friday night and Saturday.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... 26 sl
near term... 26
short term... Sl
long term... Sl
aviation... 26


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
OHIO U/ATHEN-ALBANY, OH7 mi45 minW 510.00 miOvercast36°F32°F86%1019.3 hPa
Point Pleasant, Mason County Airport, WV23 mi45 minW 310.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1020 hPa

Wind History from UNI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4SW5W6W5W7NW4NW5W4W5NW8NW6W4W3W6W7W6W5
1 day agoCalmCalmS4SW4S9SW6
G14
SW5SW8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3
2 days agoCalmCalmS3S4S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.