Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilkesville, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 8:39PM Sunday May 19, 2019 6:39 AM EDT (10:39 UTC) Moonrise 8:38PMMoonset 5:57AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilkesville, OH
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location: 39.18, -82.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 190746
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
346 am edt Sun may 19 2019

Synopsis
Hot and humid this weekend with an isolated shower storm
possible. Cold front Monday with cool conditions through
Tuesday. Heat then returns by mid and late week along with
renewed thunderstorm chances.

Near term through tonight
As of 345 am Sunday...

warm air advection will peak across the region today as an
upper level ridge across the southeast CONUS shifts east and a
mid level trough lifts from the midwest towards the great lakes
through the afternoon. At the surface, a low pressure system
will lift from northeast ia this morning towards northern lake
michigan by the evening. As the storm system lifts towards
northern michigan through the day, its associated cold front
will be moving eastward across the midwest this afternoon and
ohio valley by the evening. This means our area will remain well
ahead of the cold front today, placing the region well in the
warm sector. Thus, another hot and humid afternoon is expected
today as highs reach the mid upper 80s area-wide. In addition,
it will much breezier than what was experienced on Saturday with
forecast soundings suggesting that a deep mixed layer will be
present with steep low level lapse rates. Further enhancing any
gusty winds will be the presence of a 40 kt low level jet,
especially across western zones. Although the core of the llj
will be west of the region, the well mixed atmosphere should
still support widespread gusts in the 25+ kt range, but some
gusts stronger than that will certainly be possible.

There also remains a few opportunities for convection today, with
the possibility of even a few strong to severe storms. The main
area of focus initially will be areas generally along and near
the mountains. Models show that as the aforementioned mid level
trough pushes towards the great lakes, an initial perturbation
embedded in the southwest flow aloft will combine with diurnal
heating to support the risk of scattered showers and storms.

Again, the favored area this afternoon will be along near the
mountains, where a combination of the ingredients just discussed
along with the orographic influence should support the best
area of lift and low level convergence. In addition, the
instability will be greatest in this region where better
moisture profiles will be present; yielding MLCAPE values around
1,000-1,500 j kg. While some of this convective activity could
impact the adjacent lowlands, instability appears to be less
(mlcape less than 1,000 j kg), especially locations west of the
interstate-79 corridor. The one limiting factor overall appears
to be the amount of shear that will be present in the mountains
during the time of greatest instability. Models do show that
more favorable shear will move into the region eventually as the
llj rotates in from he west by the evening, but instability
will also be waning by this time. However, with that said, spc
has placed the region along and east of interstate-79 in a
slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon, while
locations west towards interstate-77 are placed in a marginal
risk. In southeast oh and northeast ky, just a general risk of
thunder is forecast at this time, which will primarily occur
with the secondary activity associated with the cold front.

Greatest threat associated with this activity will be damaging
wind gusts, but suppose hail could also be a concern depending
how much instability gets realized.

The second round of activity will occur this evening along ahead of
the cold front. Latest hi-res guidance suggests that the cold
front will approach western areas of the CWA right around
00z Monday. However, given the unfavorable timing of the frontal
passage, most cams are showing that a weakening broken line of
showers and some embedded thunderstorms is the most likely
scenario for our region as the frontal boundary approaches this
evening. Although better shear will arrive at this time with the
llj, models are showing very little instability will be present
by this time and so chances of anything severe from this
activity appear to be pretty low at this point. However, the
evolution of this activity will still be something to monitor
through the day.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As of 244 am Sunday...

sfc cold front is still prog to gradually push east across the
cwa during the day Monday. Despite fropa, the day itself will
still generally be on the warm side as true CAA shouldn't arrive
until later in the day. Isolated to widely scattered light
showers may occur after fropa, but impacts should be pretty low
to nil. Breezy conditions are also likely during the day with
winds becoming rather gusty at times if some sunshine is able
to develop.

Tuesday should be a pleasant weather day as a sfc high pressure
axis extends into the region from the north. The day should
start off on the cool side, especially if sfc winds become calm
and skies clear out fast enough. Have gone on the lower end of
guidance, to even a little below some guidance suites, for min
temps Monday night. However, high soil moisture values are
currently precluding me from going even lower than what is
currently forecast. MAX temps Tuesday should be close to normal
values for this time of the year.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 251 am Sunday...

waa rapidly returns to the region on Wednesday with h85 temps
warming roughly 10 decrees c between Tuesday morning and wed
morning. This will result in very warm to hot afternoon
conditions once again with moisture values gradually increasing.

H5 ridging becomes more established across the SE CONUS for the
second half of the week allowing for even hotter and more humid
conditions. Friday could potentially be the hottest day of the
upcoming week as the ridge axis is prog by both the GFS and
ecmwf to extend neward into the area. Convective chances should
also return to the CWA for the second half of the week as a few
disturbances round the northern edge of the mid level ridge.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
As of 155 am Sunday...

the entire region remains under the influence of a upper level
ridge in the southeast conus. This feature will promoteVFR
conditions into Sunday morning with winds generally remaining
calm at all terminals.

By Sunday morning, the ridge will begin to slide to the east and
a low pressure system will lift from the midwest towards the
great lakes by the afternoon. As this occurs, southwest flow
will increase through the day and conditions will become breezy
across the region with widespread gusts around 20-25 kts. In
addition, some scattered showers and storms could develop during
peak heating in the afternoon. Favored areas for the shower and
thunderstorm activity appears to be along and near the
mountains on Sunday afternoon, but can't completely rule out an
isolated shower or storm elsewhere. Thus, while conditions will
primarily beVFR through the entire day, brief flight
restrictions could occur during periods of any thunderstorm
activity with ifr MVFR conditions possible.

By the evening, a cold front will approach the region from the
west which could bring a broken line of showers and storms into
the region. However, still expecting mainlyVFR conditions
through the end of the period as low levels of the atmosphere
will be dry as the precipitation moves through. Flight
restrictions will just once again be a concern during any
convection that could occur Sunday evening along and ahead of
the cold front.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Monday...

forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: lower visibilities than forecast could
occur at ekn through Sunday morning if enough of the atmosphere
saturates, but confidence remains low on the potential for
mist fog development.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Sun 05 19 19
utc 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
edt 1hrly 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency m m m h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
after 06z Monday...

ifr conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms after
midnight Sunday.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Rh rg
near term... Rg
short term... Rh
long term... Rh
aviation... Rg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
OHIO U/ATHEN-ALBANY, OH7 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair67°F66°F98%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from UNI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4SW4SW8SW8SW9
G14
SW6S7S6S4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmW3S3CalmSW3
1 day agoS6SW5SW6SW4SW7SW7SW8SW9
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SW8W12
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S5SW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW3CalmSW4CalmW6SW5SW5SW5S7S6S8SW8S3CalmCalmS5S4S6CalmCalmS3N11
G23
CalmSW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.