Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ozawkie, KS
March 19, 2024 4:00 AM CDT (09:00 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:25 AM Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 1:14 PM Moonset 3:59 AM |
Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 190730 AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 230 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warming back up today to around 70 then mostly 50s and 60s through this week.
- A couple small rain chances set up late Thursday over southern areas then again across portions of the area on Friday.
- By the last half of this coming weekend a larger storm system begins to impact the area. A chance for storms then possibly snow as the system exits the region next Monday into Tuesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Across the CONUS, a broad trough has shifted east with primary axis extending through the New England region along the east coast.
Subtropical flow remains south over northern Mexico through south Texas along the Gulf coastal region. The Rex blocking pattern over the west is beginning to break down over western Canada as the ridge is beginning to break down as weak shortwaves enter the northern stream from the northern Pacific. Meanwhile the cutoff cold core low over the Desert Southwest is still evident and beginning to gradually fill. High pressure has shifted south of the region and is now over the southern Mid MS Valley region with return flow into the area increasing. One of the weak shortwaves emanating from the northern Pacific is quickly tracking into the northern Plains and Mid MS Valley region this morning. An associated cold front is being pushed along near the surface and will influence the area with FROPA taking place this afternoon and into the evening.
This weak cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures back to the area Wednesday especially northern areas with 50s north and 60s over southern zones. The western blocking pattern is progged to continue to break down allowing for the old cutoff low over the southwest to continue to fill and translate east phasing with the northern stream flow by late Wednesday into Thursday. The track of this open wave continues to be favored to the south of the region.
Any precipitation chances look minimal and remain over central and east central areas only around 15-20% chance overall. Another quick moving Pacific system glances the area within northwest flow aloft into Friday morning bringing around 20-30% of light precipitation to northeastern KS areas.
The best rain and storm chances into the last part of the weekend still look variable with a decent amount of spread amongst long range ensemble solutions. As a large Pacific trough digs and deepens over the western CONUS, southwest flow over the central Rockies will help induce a deep lee trough increasing wind and theta-e advection across the area into Sunday. Rain and storm chances should increase with timing and position of fronts being the primary element of uncertainty which give a large degree of uncertainty to any potential severe threat at this time. Also, another question is how the system matures and evolves over the area. The deformation zone that results should have sufficient CAA to develop a late winter system. How much of that impacts north central into northeastern Kansas will become more of an important question to answer looking ahead into early next week Monday/Tuesday time frame as the system exits the region.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A quick moving weak frontal system works through the area from midday through the afternoon period. Winds continue to veer from the S to SSW into midday then change from the NNW to N for through the balance of the period. A few gusts develop into this morning ahead of the front then tend to drop off into this evening behind the front. No significant aviation hazards expected as FROPA should be a dry passage.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 230 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warming back up today to around 70 then mostly 50s and 60s through this week.
- A couple small rain chances set up late Thursday over southern areas then again across portions of the area on Friday.
- By the last half of this coming weekend a larger storm system begins to impact the area. A chance for storms then possibly snow as the system exits the region next Monday into Tuesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Across the CONUS, a broad trough has shifted east with primary axis extending through the New England region along the east coast.
Subtropical flow remains south over northern Mexico through south Texas along the Gulf coastal region. The Rex blocking pattern over the west is beginning to break down over western Canada as the ridge is beginning to break down as weak shortwaves enter the northern stream from the northern Pacific. Meanwhile the cutoff cold core low over the Desert Southwest is still evident and beginning to gradually fill. High pressure has shifted south of the region and is now over the southern Mid MS Valley region with return flow into the area increasing. One of the weak shortwaves emanating from the northern Pacific is quickly tracking into the northern Plains and Mid MS Valley region this morning. An associated cold front is being pushed along near the surface and will influence the area with FROPA taking place this afternoon and into the evening.
This weak cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures back to the area Wednesday especially northern areas with 50s north and 60s over southern zones. The western blocking pattern is progged to continue to break down allowing for the old cutoff low over the southwest to continue to fill and translate east phasing with the northern stream flow by late Wednesday into Thursday. The track of this open wave continues to be favored to the south of the region.
Any precipitation chances look minimal and remain over central and east central areas only around 15-20% chance overall. Another quick moving Pacific system glances the area within northwest flow aloft into Friday morning bringing around 20-30% of light precipitation to northeastern KS areas.
The best rain and storm chances into the last part of the weekend still look variable with a decent amount of spread amongst long range ensemble solutions. As a large Pacific trough digs and deepens over the western CONUS, southwest flow over the central Rockies will help induce a deep lee trough increasing wind and theta-e advection across the area into Sunday. Rain and storm chances should increase with timing and position of fronts being the primary element of uncertainty which give a large degree of uncertainty to any potential severe threat at this time. Also, another question is how the system matures and evolves over the area. The deformation zone that results should have sufficient CAA to develop a late winter system. How much of that impacts north central into northeastern Kansas will become more of an important question to answer looking ahead into early next week Monday/Tuesday time frame as the system exits the region.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A quick moving weak frontal system works through the area from midday through the afternoon period. Winds continue to veer from the S to SSW into midday then change from the NNW to N for through the balance of the period. A few gusts develop into this morning ahead of the front then tend to drop off into this evening behind the front. No significant aviation hazards expected as FROPA should be a dry passage.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KTOP PHILIP BILLARD MUNI,KS | 13 sm | 67 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 18°F | 48% | 30.09 | |
KLWC LAWRENCE MUNI,KS | 19 sm | 68 min | SE 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 25°F | 18°F | 74% | 30.11 | |
KFOE TOPEKA RGNL,KS | 21 sm | 67 min | S 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 32°F | 19°F | 59% | 30.08 |
Topeka, KS,
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