Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ozawkie, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:16PM Sunday September 24, 2017 9:35 PM CDT (02:35 UTC) Moonrise 10:26AMMoonset 9:08PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozawkie, KS
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location: 39.21, -95.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 242321
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
621 pm cdt Sun sep 24 2017

Update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 252 pm cdt Sun sep 24 2017
the upper trough has continued to move slowly east per the 19z water
vapor imagery, and now the upper low is over salt lake city. At the
surface, the cold front has moved into northwest ks through
northeast neb with the pre-frontal trough just northwest of the
forecast area. A few thunderstorms have developed in the heat of the
day over northern ks.

There is not a great deal of change to the forecast for tonight and
Monday. The few changes are some subtle adjustments to the timing of
precip and the expected affects on temps. Think this afternoon's
isolated to scattered showers and storms over northern ks are likely
to fall apart with the loss of daytime heating. But pops will be on
the increase from west to east overnight as the upper trough
continues to move east and the front slowly enters the forecast
area. Synoptic scale dynamics do not look all that impressive, and
instability sheer parameters remain on the marginal side for strong
thunderstorms. So the expectation is for the observed precipitation
from today to shift east a little further. Isolated to scattered
storms should develop by the afternoon hours Monday over eastern ks
while occasional rain showers move into north central ks.

Thunderstorms will be more probable in the warm sector across
eastern ks where highs should be aided by a little more insolation
and warm into the mid 80s. Cooler temps across north central ks near
the frontal boundary should favor more of the general shower
activity seen across northwest ks today. The rain and cloud cover is
expected to create a tight gradient in the temps tomorrow afternoon
and have highs for the far northwestern parts of the forecast area
holding in the lower 60s. There remains some concern for locally
heavy rainfall since the upper flow will continue to parallel the
surface boundary. Models show decent moisture along the front so if
there are more convective elements near the front that train to the
north, there could be rainfall amounts over 1.5 inches.

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 252 pm cdt Sun sep 24 2017
by Monday night, a deep mid-level trough will be centered over the
rockies, with this trough lifting into the northern plains through
Tuesday night. This advancing trough will continue to push surface
low pressure southeast of the area with the cold front exiting east
central ks by Monday evening. Models show post-frontal
precipitation overspreading the CWA Monday night as a weak low-level
jet and isentropic lift remain in place over the area. With the low-
and mid-level flow looking to be nearly parallel to the post-frontal
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, cannot rule out the
potential for some locally heavy rainfall due to training storms.

However, the light to moderate rainfall rates should be spread out
enough time-wise to limit flash-flooding concerns. Weak mid-level
lapse rates will limit MUCAPE values to generally less than 500
j kg. Due to the combination of limited CAPE and 0-6km bulk shear
values of 25-30kts, the potential for any strong or severe storms is
low. CAPE values will continue to diminish through Tuesday and
Tuesday night, so expect mostly showers with a few isolated
thunderstorms possible. This widely scattered precipitation on
Tuesday will gradually diminish from northwest to southeast over the
cwa through Tuesday night as surface high pressure advances into the
central u.S. A few isolated showers may still be lingering across
east central ks on Wednesday, but otherwise expect dry conditions
across the area. Models show the forecast area remaining under the
influence of surface high pressure through the end of the week and
into next weekend, so have a dry forecast in place. There are some
slight model discrepancies in the mid-level pattern during the
Friday through Sunday time period, with the GFS being an outlier in
showing a weak embedded wave clipping north central ks Friday
morning. Otherwise, there is the potential for a shortwave trough to
shift into the central u.S. By late weekend, which may bring another
chance for scattered precipitation.

As for temperatures, cold-air advection behind the frontal passage
Monday night will drop temperatures closer to the seasonal normals
with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday
through Sunday. Low temperatures will gradually drop through the
week with lows generally in the 50s through late week before
plunging into the 40s by next weekend.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 618 pm cdt Sun sep 24 2017
there may be a few isolated showers or storms around kmhk this
evening. A slow moving front will bring a better chance for
showers and isolated thunderstorms at kmhk after midnight and to
ktop and kfoe by 12z. The showers and scattered storms will likely
continue through the day across the terminals. Most of the time
expectVFR conditons though in heavier rainfall there could be
brief MVFR visibilities and ceilings.

Top watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Wolters
long term... Hennecke
aviation... Gargan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS12 mi42 minSE 710.00 miFair75°F68°F79%1011.8 hPa
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS19 mi43 minESE 410.00 miFair73°F68°F84%1012.3 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS20 mi42 minSE 710.00 miFair77°F68°F74%1011.9 hPa

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Last 24hrE4SE5E3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmE5SE4S7S9S11S10S6
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1 day agoSE6SE6SE4SE4SE5SE5E4NE3E3E4E5SE3S6S8S10S10SE15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.