Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ozawkie, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:40PM Monday May 27, 2019 7:18 AM CDT (12:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:42AMMoonset 12:56PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozawkie, KS
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location: 39.21, -95.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 270957
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
457 am cdt Mon may 27 2019

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 449 am cdt Mon may 27 2019
the severe line of storms have weakened across northeast and east
central ks as they moved into an environment with lower
instability and may have become more elevated across northeast ks
through the early morning hours. The leading edge of convection
will move out of the CWA before 11z and the trailing stratiform
rain band should diminish by 13 or 14z.

Today through tonight, an intense upper trough across the
southwestern us will begin to lift northeast across the southern
and central high plains by 12z tue. Much of the CWA should remain
dry through the day and into tonight. A weak front will drop
southward to the NE border late this afternoon and thunderstorms
may develop early this evening along the front across the northern
counties of the cwa. If these storms are surface based, then they
may become strong to severe with the primary hazard being
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Outflow from the evening
storms may push the front a bit farther south into north central
and northeast ks. A strong LLJ jet will develop during the mid
evening hours and will result in isentropic lift north of the
front, so there may be elevated storms across north central and
northeast ks through the night. The front will then push north
towards the NE border by 12z and the better chance for elevated
thunderstorms will be across southern NE by 12z tue. Since qpf
should be less than 0.25" across our far norther counties I will
let the flash flood watch expire at 7 am.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 449 am cdt Mon may 27 2019
Tuesday through Tuesday night, the main upper level trough will
amplify as it lifts northeast across eastern co into central NE by
12z wed. A strong h5 jet MAX will overspread eastern ks during the
afternoon hours and the dryline will push east into central ks
during the mid and late afternoon hours. The vertical windshear and
instability will be sufficient for discrete supercells to develop
along the the dryline by 21z across north central and central ks.

There continues to be some model differences in the low-level wind
profiles. The GFS has slightly veered 850mb and surface winds which
would reduce the chances of supercells producing tornadoes. Even the
3km NAM model shows weaknesses in the 3 to 4 km winds which would produce
forecast hodographs which bend back at 4km, resulting in more hp
outflow dominate supercells. Isolated tornadoes may still be
possible Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours across the cwa.

Also, the strong DCVA may cause a linear line of severe storms to
develop within an hour or two after initiation. Severe line
segments or a qlcs may still produce meso-vortices that could
produce brief rain-wrapped tornadoes along the line. The surface
front will over take the dryline during the early evening hours
and the line of storms should move east of the CWA after 3z wed.

Wednesday through Friday, look dry as a weak h5 trough digs
southeast from the northern plains into the mid ms river valley.

The upper flow will become more zonal by Friday as deeper
moisture will be advected northward as a lee surface trough deepens
across the central high plains. Highs will be slightly cooler
with mid to upper 70s.

Friday night through Monday, richer gulf moisture will be in place
across the plains. Minor perturbations embedded within the mid
level flow may provide chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the period. Highs will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1226 am cdt Mon may 27 2019
the big feature of interest overnight continues to be a line of
storms advancing toward the area. Currently, expect the line to
impact kmhk by around 07-09z time frame when intense storms and
very strong wind gusts move through. Ktop kfoe will not be far
behind and have moved up timing a bit to around 08-09z time frame.

Storms could weaken slightly as they move into the ktop kfoe
terminals, but still expecting strong and intense storms overall.

Storms could linger for a while into the morning hours with
isolated redevelopment behind the line after it moves through.

Top watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch until 7 am cdt this morning for ksz008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Short term... Gargan
long term... Gargan
aviation... Drake


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS12 mi26 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F61°F90%1008.8 hPa
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS19 mi27 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds65°F61°F87%1008.8 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS20 mi26 minS 510.00 miFair64°F61°F90%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from TOP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmE3S7S5S10SE6S8SE8S10S10S7SE7SE5SE4SE5SE7SE8E11SE9S9E4E8Calm
1 day agoS12
G22
SW11
G21
S7
G16
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G20
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G20
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SW10
G19
S8S8SW10S8S7S4SW3N7SW8
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NW9CalmCalmE3NE3N3CalmCalm
2 days agoW14
G23
S7--S74SW10S12
G23
SW8
G16
W4E4NW4SE6S10
G22
4S6
G15
S13
G22
S8S8
G15
S8S5E6E6S9S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.