Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ozawkie, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 8:11PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 12:56 PM CDT (17:56 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 3:23AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozawkie, KS
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location: 39.21, -95.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 251730
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
1230 pm cdt Wed apr 25 2018

Update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 308 am cdt Wed apr 25 2018
early this morning, water vapor imagery showed increasing cloud
cover spreading eastward across the CWA as a mid-level low and
shortwave trough were diving southward into northern ks. Areas of
isentropic lift just ahead of this wave were supporting widespread
rain showers across central and south central ks. As of 08z, some
shallow low-level dry air was still present over far eastern ks, but
expect the advancing shortwave and increasing isentropic lift to
support light rain finally reaching the ground by around sunrise.

Models show the mid-level closed low within the shortwave trough to
track southward over central and eastern ks today, with an
increasing vorticity maximum developing along the southern edge of
the closed low as it tracks across central to southeast ks. As a
result, this ample forcing combined with sufficient moisture will
allow for widespread rain showers across the entire CWA today, and
have continued to trend a bit higher with QPF amounts. Latest model
guidance shows approximately 0.5" to 0.75" of rain possible across
much of northeast and east central ks, with around or less than 0.5"
over north central ks. With models showing little to no instability
present, do not anticipate any thunderstorms. By tonight, the mid-
level low will progress southeast of the area, with surface high
pressure gradually advancing into the area today through tonight
behind this system. As a result, rain showers should exit from west
to east mid-afternoon through early evening.

As surface high pressure shifts further eastward across the outlook
area today, model soundings show conditions gradually drying out
aloft to aid in the diminishing precipitation. However, some short-
range model guidance also is suggesting that enough dry air will
advect into north central ks to scatter cloud cover out enough for a
brief late-afternoon warm-up in temperatures. With early morning
temperatures currently ranging from the mid 40s to low mid 50s from
west to east over the cwa, the overcast skies will hinder much of
the daytime heating. But if the cloud cover scatters out enough by
late this afternoon, short-range guidance suggests temperatures
could quickly and briefly rise into the mid 50s. This temperature
forecast will likely be the biggest forecast challenge for today, so
will need to closely monitor conditions this afternoon. Cloud cover
should diminish across the entire outlook area tonight, with decent
radiational cooling supporting low temperatures tonight plunging
into the mid upper 30s, which could potentially result in some
patchy frost development by Thursday morning.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 308 am cdt Wed apr 25 2018
precipitation chances with the weaker wave Thursday are waning
with much weaker forcing and more limited moisture than today's
system. Could see some sprinkles at times, but at this point will
convey little opportunity for wetting rains and remove any precip
mention. Cloud cover diminishes in the evening with a weak
modified canadian ridge moving in. Winds will likely be light for
much of the overnight hours and temperatures could drop into the
mid 30s in the northwest. Will mention some frost here but a
widespread frost looks unlikely.

Modest winds, clear skies, and moderating temps dominate the
Friday through Saturday night periods under northwest flow.

Subsequent periods bring fairly steady breezy windy south to
southwest winds as the upper trough off the west coast comes
inland. Have high confidence in warmer temperatures as well, but
much remains to be seen in how the wave behaves with the ecmwf
much more progressive than the GFS and gefs. Both operational runs
suggest at least some capping to deal with and only a slow
increase in moisture quality. Will precip chances quite limited
for these periods dry but a the potential for a more robust and
widespread convective event will need to be monitored.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1227 pm cdt Wed apr 25 2018
borderline MVFR ivfr conditions will persist for the next few
hours before ceilings lift this afternoon right around when the
rain ends. Skies should clear out this evening and the winds are
light overnight, which could set the stage for fog. The winds
should increase out of the west towards the end of the period.

Top watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Hennecke
long term... 65
aviation... Sanders


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS12 mi63 minN 96.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist49°F48°F97%1021.4 hPa
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS19 mi64 minN 61.50 miRain Fog/Mist49°F46°F93%1021.4 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS20 mi63 minNNE 103.00 miRain Fog/Mist49°F46°F93%1021.1 hPa

Wind History from TOP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10N7NW9N9
G18
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N8
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NW8W5W9NW7NW9W8
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NW6NW3NW4N5N6N8N11N9
1 day agoN7
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G18
NE45NE5NE4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3Calm
2 days agoNE8N10E9E15
G21
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G19
NE4NE7E5NE3N4N4N3NW4N5N7CalmCalmNW5N43N7N9
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.