Saturday, August18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ozawkie, KS

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Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 8:14PM Saturday August 18, 2018 11:31 AM CDT (16:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:29PMMoonset 11:56PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozawkie, KS
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location: 39.21, -95.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 181217
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
717 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018

Update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 310 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018
early this morning a positive tilt upper level trough was located
across the eastern great lakes, which extended southwest into the
lower ms river valley. An upper level trough was located across the
great basin. A down stream upper ridge was located across the high
plans.

Today through tonight, the upper trough across the great basin will
dig southeast across the central rockies into the central high
plains late tonight. Most numerical models show a shorter wave-
length upper trough moving through the base of the main upper trough
as it digs southeast across the central rockies into the central
high plains. This lead upper trough will amplify as it lifts
northeast into western ks by 6z sun, ahead of the main h5 trough.

During the late afternoon and evening hours a lee surface trough
will deepen across eastern co, which will increase southeasterly low-
level winds across western ks and eastern co, providing for deeper
moisture transport northwest across western ks into eastern co. The
combination of upslope flow and DCVA ahead of the h5 trough will
cause numerous thunderstorms to develop during the late afternoon
and evening hours across eastern co. A complex of thunderstorms may
form and move east across western ks through the night. The complex
of thunderstorms may begin to weaken after 6z Sun as the complex
outruns the better instability axis across western ks. The eastern
edge of showers and thunderstorms may move into the western counties
of the CWA after 9z, then slowly spread east through the remainder
of the early morning hours. Most numerical models show only about
200-500 j kg of mucape, thus any thunderstorms that move into the
western counties of CWA will not be severe. Showers and elevated
thunderstorms may form across the central and eastern counties of
the CWA towards sunrise as residual moisture return may provide
enough isentropic lift for scattered shower and isolated elevated
thunderstorms.

Highs today will be in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Light and
variable winds will gradually become southeasterly through the late
afternoon and evening hours, as the surface ridge of high pressure
shifts east into mo. Lows tonight will only drop back into the upper
60s with increasing cloud cover.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)
issued at 310 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018
main focus for the long term remains on the late weekend into
Monday periods. The bulk of guidance is showing a lead wave
rotating northeast across eastern kansas the around the parent
cyclone during the day Sunday with surface cyclogenesis resulting
in a weak surface low or inverted trough forming over this area.

With increasing deep moisture with pw values near 2 inches and
weak to moderate though deep isentropic upglide, expect a fairly
widespread precip event from Sunday morning into Sunday evening.

Qpf trends continue to rise though the prolonged nature of the
event and generally dry ground conditions should keep flooding
potential low with modest instability and shear keeping severe
weather concerns low. Eastern areas should see a later onset of
precip for temps to reach the low to mid 80s with mid 70s more
likely to the west. Upper trough axis shifts east of the area
Monday morning with some scattered precip likely through the day
especially in deeper moisture in northern areas. Persistence of
cloud and precip may well keep temps from breaching the mid 70s
for much of the area, and feel a continued cooling forecast trend
may be in order as cold air advection takes hold on breezy north
to northwest winds.

Northwest flow aloft for Tuesday to around Wednesday night behind
the upper low keeps conditions mainly dry with surface ridging
building in and temps a few to several degrees below normal.

Southeast flow behind the surface ridge along the front range of the
rockies will likely result in high plains convection which could
reach central kansas during mainly the late night to early morning
hours of Wednesday and Thursday. A more zonal pattern develops
toward the end of the week, with the 0z ECMWF bringing a shortwave
across the northern and central plains. Will keep precip chances
small with model variances increasing as temperatures increment
toward normal levels.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 645 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018
ground fog will reduce visibilities down to 4 miles at kmhk
through 13z but should mix out after 13z. ExpectVFR conditions
through most of the next 24 hours. Towards 12z Mon there may be a
chance for showers and thunderstorms to effect the terminals.

Top watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Gargan
long term... 65
aviation... Gargan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS12 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair84°F71°F65%1017.2 hPa
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS19 mi39 minSW 410.00 miFair83°F70°F65%1017.3 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS20 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair84°F68°F59%1017.3 hPa

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Last 24hrN9NE86N6N7N7NE5N6N3NW3CalmCalmNW3N3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW3SE6W6SW5CalmCalmN5NE4N4SE7S6S6W4W7NW4W3NW4W4CalmCalmNW3N64N8
2 days agoW85Calm43NW3N6NW4CalmCalmN3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.