Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ozawkie, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:08PM Friday November 16, 2018 2:59 PM CST (20:59 UTC) Moonrise 2:00PMMoonset 12:09AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozawkie, KS
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location: 39.21, -95.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 162012
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
212 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018

Short term (this evening through Saturday)
issued at 104 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018
as of 19z Friday afternoon broad cyclonic midlevel flow continues
across the eastern half of the conus. The midlevel shortwave that
shunted a weak surface trough through the region yesterday
afternoon evening has pushed into the great lakes region. A
surface ridge axis continues to move eastward, away from the
central plains, allowing southerly low-level flow to return to the
cwa. Mixing heights are fairly uniform across the CWA (900-875
mb). With temperatures in this layer near +7 c, afternoon sfc
temperatures have warmed quite nicely with readings in the middle
50s to near 60 area-wide.

Our attention then turns north and west towards an elongated
midlevel trough axis that is progged to traverse the region late
Saturday into Sunday. An attendant sfc trough is continuing to
deepen across the central and northern rockies at this hours. All
model solutions suggest this sfc trough axis will traverse the cwa
tonight. Much colder temperatures are expected Saturday with most
areas seeing falling temperatures through the day with all areas
in the 20s and 30s by late afternoon. A tight pressure gradient
will setup across the CWA tomorrow afternoon behind the departing
sfc trough and ahead of the sfc ridge. Northerly winds are likely
to gust near 30 mph through much of the day. As a result wind
chill values are expected to be in the 10s and 20s Saturday
afternoon. The bulk of the daytime hours Saturday should remain
dry, until a band of weak frontogenesis between 700-500 mb
overspreads areas near the NE state line Saturday evening. As the
main midlevel speed MAX ejects to the north and east across the
northeastern us, the elongated trough axis will tend to "shear
out" as it progresses southward early Sunday morning. As a result,
the band of midlevel frontogenesis will weaken as the trough axis
progresses southward. In regards to p-type, thermal profiles
continue to suggest an all-snow scenario. Deterministic and
ensemble solutions remain consistent with predominately QPF values
up to a few hundredths with the highest amounts along the ne
border. Snow ratios near 12:1 would yield very minor snow
accumulations less than 0.5".

Long term (Saturday night through Friday)
issued at 104 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018
a very conditional scenario for freezing drizzle may take shape
across areas southeast of the kansas turnpike late Saturday
night Sunday morning. Strong cold air advection behind the sfc
trough will yield temperatures in the upper 20s lower 30s by
Saturday evening. The further south from the midlevel trough axis
you move, the more shallow moisture becomes. In this area
southeast of the ks turnpike, the extent of the moisture layer is
likely to remain predominately between 950-850 mb Saturday evening
through Sunday morning. Weak isentropic upglide within this layer
will reside in this region as the 850 mb trough slowly pushes
southeast. The combination of sufficient moisture, supercooled
water-droplets, subfreezing sfc temperatures and weak lift may
yield patchy freezing drizzle. Another limiting factor is a dry
layer beneath 950 mb -- with precip rates expected to be very
light, confidence in near sfc wet-bulbing effect is low. Given
the overall setup, will introduce a slight chance for -fzdz
Saturday night-Sunday morning. Any lingering precip will come to
an end by midday Sunday as a surface ridge axis overspreads the
central plains. High temperatures will remain in the middle 30s
Sunday afternoon.

Northwesterly midlevel flow will remain across the central and
northern plains through the middle of next week. Predominately
dry conditions are expected through Wednesday with temperatures
returning to the 50s. Rain chances look to accompany a portion of
thanksgiving (Thursday) into Friday as a shortwave trough lifts
from the southwestern us. Temperatures look to remain quite
comfortable for late-november with highs in the 50s!

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1129 am cst Fri nov 16 2018
vfr conditions are expected to continue through much of the
overnight hours. Southerly winds will remain at 5-10 kt through
late afternoon, before decreasing to 5 kt or less. A cold front
will traverse the area during the overnight hours, veering winds
to the north, although remaining near 5 kt. MVFR stratus is
expected to overspread the terminals near sunrise Saturday. In-
conjunction with the MVFR CIGS arrival, northerly winds will begin
to gust upwards of 25-30 kt by 14-15z. Any precipitation looks to
remain well north of the terminals through 18z.

Top watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Baerg
long term... Baerg
aviation... Baerg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS12 mi67 minSSE 610.00 miFair58°F35°F42%1016.9 hPa
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS19 mi68 minS 610.00 miFair57°F35°F44%1017.6 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS20 mi67 minS 1010.00 miFair58°F35°F42%1016.9 hPa

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Last 24hrSW6SW6S3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmW4W4CalmCalmS6SE6
1 day agoSE6SE7SE7SE4S6S5CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E3CalmCalmS4S6S5SW9
G17
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2 days agoSW4SW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmS7S4S4S5S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.