NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Weak high pressure will remain to our north through early Sunday supporting clear skies, low humidity, and near normal temperatures in the upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

High pressure center shifts offshore Sunday afternoon with winds shifting to a more southerly direction resulting in a warming trend with highs climbing into the low 90s. Dewpoints will still remain low on Sunday, but will start rising on Monday.

Upper troughing over the area early next week will support a surface trough and southerly flow supporting moisture advection into the area. Expect shower and thunderstorm chances to increase across southwest areas Monday afternoon with better chances during the middle of next week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The upper-level pattern next week looks very messy overall, leading to daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
Generally, a warming trend is expected through the end of the week as surface high pressure remains offshore, pumping in warm and moist air into the region all week. Pair this with an upper-level troughs to our north with several shortwaves moving across the region and you get daily thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will be a touch above average for this time of year, but nothing record-shattering.
Highs will range from the upper mid-upper 80s on Tuesday, increasing to the mid-upper 90s by Friday. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 60s to low 70s each night.

As far as hazards go, not seeing any one day that really jumps off the page as a threat for severe or flooding. These impulses of upper- level energy look to quickly swing through, so any storms should be moving fairly quickly, likely not dropping a substantial amount of rain in any one given place. For severe, it is summer, so any storm that develops could produce some damaging wind gusts and perhaps some large hail as well. Again, no day looks really impressive in terms of severe weather, but you can never rule out an isolated stronger cell when you have temperatures in the 90s and dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

P6SM SKC through Sunday night. Thunderstorm chances for Charlottesville beginning Monday afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday will both feature the chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorms across the terminals. Winds will generally be out of the S/SSW at 5-10 knots. However, if thunderstorms approach any terminal, stronger winds are possible along with some brief VSBY reductions.

MARINE

Light and variable winds expected through Sunday. Strengthening winds expected Sunday night into next week with SCA conditions likely from Drum Pt to Smith Pt.

Winds will be out of the S/SSW on both Tuesday and Wednesday at around 10-15 knots, with gusts potentially approaching SCA criteria both days in channeled flow up the Chesapeake Bay. This would likely be during the afternoon/evening hours each day.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Rising water levels are expected Sunday afternoon into the middle of next week with minor coastal flooding possible at Annapolis by Monday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.