Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 8:16 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 102 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening - .
This afternoon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 7 seconds and S 1 foot at 8 seconds. Tonight - SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 15 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight. Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 14 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 foot at 14 seconds. Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 3 seconds. Mon night - S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 3 ft at 9 seconds. Tue - S winds around 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely.Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Wed night - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.

ANZ400 102 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.

FXUS61 KPHI 111733 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 133 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure over the region late this morning will move offshore this evening. Low pressure centered over Lake Huron early this afternoon will move eastward through this evening into Sunday. High pressure builds south of the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. Another area of low pressure brings more unsettled weather by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A sea breeze will keep coastal areas sunny into the late afternoon. Otherwise clouds are increasing west of the sea breeze as the next disturbance approaches the area.

For tonight, some shower activity will begin to work its way into the area after sunset from west to east as surface low moves eastward from the Great Lakes region. The low will be accompanied by a cold front, but the overall strength of the system will be weakening as it nears. Widespread rain showers are anticipated especially north and west of the Delaware Valley where better forcing will be present. Rainfall up to a quarter of an inch is expected. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s.

H5 trough with associated vorticity advection will be moving over the region on Sunday. With additional lift provided by weak warm air advection, Sunday looks to be a rather wet and cool day. Maximum temperatures are expected in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
By Sunday evening, the trough starts to clear and the area should begin to dry out as ridging builds in from the west. Expecting a spread of 40s for overnight lows to close out the weekend.

A nice start to the week is expected with a broad area of high pressure working in. Temperatures moderate back to near-normal levels for mid-May, with low to mid 70s expected for most. The exception being the southern Poconos and along the coast, where highs will stay in the 60s. Skies will be mostly sunny with some passing clouds at times

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The work week looks to continue to be somewhat active with a couple of systems moving through during the week. Temperatures are forecast to be close to normal for early to mid May.
Ensemble guidance points to rainfall but continues to suggest that forcing is not currently lining up to lead to much in the way of any severe weather for the week ahead.

The first system to bring showers and thunderstorms should move through on Tuesday but again the best shear and instability don't overlap so while there is a medium to high chance (60-70%) of showers and embedded thunderstorms, we are not anticipating any severe weather. The wet weather is expected to linger through the day on Wednesday before a ridge builds in for Thursday bringing dry sensible weather. Towards the end of the week or perhaps the weekend, the next system starts moving towards the region and will have the potential to bring another round of showers with embedded thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

This afternoon...VFR. Winds becoming E-SE 5 to 10 knots.

Tonight...VFR early, then ceilings will be dropping into the 1500 to 3000 ft range as rain showers move into the area after 03Z Lehigh Valley and Poconos, and after 06Z for the remainder of the region. Visibility may drop to 3-5SM in fog late tonight.
Southeast winds 5-10 kt.

Sunday...Ceilings around 1000ft and visibility 3-5SM all locations with periods of light rain. East to southeast winds around 10 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with low ceilings and reduced visibility with rain ending.

Monday through Tuesday...No significant weather expected.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions expected with showers. Chance of thunderstorms (15-25%) Tuesday night into Wednesday.

MARINE
A SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters from Manasquan Inlet to Fenwick Island until 6 PM today due to seas remaining above 5 feet.
Elsewhere, seas will remain below SCA criteria. Winds east to southeast 10-15 kt. Southeast winds then continue into tonight around 10-15 kt. Seas are expected to subside to 3-4ft tonight and Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...No marine headlines expected.

Monday Night through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as wind gusts get near 25 kt. Seas will get near 5 feet on Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Coastal Flood Advisories were issued for tonight's high tide for coastal zones from Ocean County on south and for the lower Delaware Bay in Kent, DE and Cumberland, NJ. Minor tidal flooding is expected with some inundation of roadways possible.
Elsewhere, spotty minor flooding is expected within the upper Delaware Bay, tidal Delaware River, tidal Raritan Bay, and along the NJ coast north of Ocean County.

Spotty minor flooding is also expected with tomorrow morning's high tide within the Chesapeake Bay. Some of the guidance suggests an advisory may be needed, but have elected to hold off for now. Stay tuned to the forecast for any further updates.

No further tidal flooding issues are expected beyond tonight/tomorrow morning's high tide.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ020>027.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ451>455.

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Brigantine Channel @ Hoffman Thorofare
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:38 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:48 AM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:32 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:57 PM EDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brigantine Channel @ Hoffman Thorofare, New Jersey, Tide feet

Absecon Channel
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:06 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:28 AM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:00 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:37 PM EDT     4.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Absecon Channel, State Route 87 bridge, New Jersey, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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