Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hettick, IL
March 18, 2024 8:58 PM CDT (01:58 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:04 AM Sunset 7:12 PM Moonrise 11:48 AM Moonset 2:53 AM |
Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 182253 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 553 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A hard freeze (low temperatures below 29 degrees) is forecast again for almost the entire area, threatening tender vegetation.
- Gusty winds and warm, dry air will make for elevated fire danger and erratic fire behavior along and west of the Mississippi River tomorrow.
- We will remain dry into the later part of the week, though temperature uncertainty increases markedly by Thursday.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Tuesday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Stratocumulus clouds that developed this morning amidst strong cyclonic flow aloft will begin to dissipate as the wave's axis passes through the region this evening. The loss of diurnal instability will also erode the cloud deck, leading to a clear and cold night across the region. Temperatures overnight will fall below freezing areawide, and it is very likely (90%+ chance) that we see another hard freeze (colder than 29 degrees) tonight for all but the immediate St. Louis metropolitan area. While the growing season is not truly in effect despite our recent warm stretch, vegetation that bloomed early will be threatened overnight.
A weak mid-level wave drops south from Canada overnight along deep northwest flow, forcing a surface low and cold front to approach the Mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow morning. Poor moisture return will allow the front to pass through the region on Tuesday with no precipitation, but the strengthened southwest wind at the surface and aloft directly ahead of the front will help advect anomalously warm and dry air into eastern Missouri. Temperatures tomorrow will rise noticeably higher than today's did, by 15-20 degrees in some spots. Those along and south of the Missouri River will see the warmest temperatures, reaching the mid-60s during the afternoon.
This warm, dry air alongside stronger winds will also lead to erratic fire behavior and elevated fire danger in Missouri and far western Illinois. Heed caution with any exposed flames and be mindful of anything that can inadvertently spark a fire. The colder air behind the front lags to our north, but by Wednesday temperatures fall back to near/slightly-below mid-March normals.
MRB
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The ridge-trough upper-level pattern currently across North America, with a cutoff low embedded in the ridge over the Desert Southwest, will begin to erode starting Wednesday. The resultant near-zonal flow aloft will introduce a more active pattern, higher uncertainty in our temperature forecast, and increased potential for precipitation later in the week. Our first threat for rain comes Thursday, when the cutoff low to our west dislodges and drifts east.
At the same time, most guidance depicts an amplified shortwave diving into the Great Lakes region amidst the cyclonic flow of a larger trough in eastern Canada. These features will be the focus for precipitation to our north and to our south, however we look to be forcing-starved between them. As such, barring any significant shift in these waves' characteristics, most of the forecast area will be dry. Chances for rain are highest (around 30%) in far northern and southern Missouri, closer to the forcing aloft.
This rain threat lingers in the forecast through into Friday and Saturday and expands across the forecast area, but this is moreso a reflection of how uncertain the forecast is. The track, speed, and amplitude of the shortwave forcing any rain is more uncertain later in the week, leading to broad, low rain chances (15-30%). That said, there will be plenty of dry time and any rain that does fall likely will be light. Low level moisture and humidity, as depicted in ensemble guidance, looks anomalously dry. Also, with instability at a premium (MUCAPE less than 100 J/kg) any convection that manages to develop will be very shallow and weak. The differences mentioned above also impact our temperature forecast, which becomes highly uncertain by the weekend. While we will generally remain near to below average into Friday, the temperature spread increases dramatically by the weekend. Subtle differences in the ensemble guidance regarding the upper level pattern (a weak ridge overhead vs northwest flow) is the main culprit for the uncertainty.
By Sunday, however, ensemble guidance converges a bit more on a large-scale upper-level trough digging into the western CONUS. The exact evolution is far from certain, but would result in southwest flow aloft and increased potential for more widespread and beneficial precipitation Sunday into early next week. ML/AI-based severe weather probability guidance is cluing in on the more favorable synoptic pattern for at least some threat of severe weather as well, and the CPC Precipitation Outlooks valid for this period also highlight the region for increased potential for above- normal precipitation. Temperature uncertainty remains relatively high during this time as well, but generally speaking we should warm to at least near-normal if not a bit warmer still.
MRB
AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Dry, VFR conditions along with a clear sky through the period.
Winds are the main focus, with northwest winds slackening quickly this evening. Most locations should have several hours of light/variable winds as a surface ridge moves across the region.
Late tonight, winds become more out of the southwest and increase in speed toward dusk. Gusts around 25 to perhaps 30 knots are forecast tomorrow across the area ahead of a cold front.
Gosselin
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 553 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A hard freeze (low temperatures below 29 degrees) is forecast again for almost the entire area, threatening tender vegetation.
- Gusty winds and warm, dry air will make for elevated fire danger and erratic fire behavior along and west of the Mississippi River tomorrow.
- We will remain dry into the later part of the week, though temperature uncertainty increases markedly by Thursday.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Tuesday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Stratocumulus clouds that developed this morning amidst strong cyclonic flow aloft will begin to dissipate as the wave's axis passes through the region this evening. The loss of diurnal instability will also erode the cloud deck, leading to a clear and cold night across the region. Temperatures overnight will fall below freezing areawide, and it is very likely (90%+ chance) that we see another hard freeze (colder than 29 degrees) tonight for all but the immediate St. Louis metropolitan area. While the growing season is not truly in effect despite our recent warm stretch, vegetation that bloomed early will be threatened overnight.
A weak mid-level wave drops south from Canada overnight along deep northwest flow, forcing a surface low and cold front to approach the Mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow morning. Poor moisture return will allow the front to pass through the region on Tuesday with no precipitation, but the strengthened southwest wind at the surface and aloft directly ahead of the front will help advect anomalously warm and dry air into eastern Missouri. Temperatures tomorrow will rise noticeably higher than today's did, by 15-20 degrees in some spots. Those along and south of the Missouri River will see the warmest temperatures, reaching the mid-60s during the afternoon.
This warm, dry air alongside stronger winds will also lead to erratic fire behavior and elevated fire danger in Missouri and far western Illinois. Heed caution with any exposed flames and be mindful of anything that can inadvertently spark a fire. The colder air behind the front lags to our north, but by Wednesday temperatures fall back to near/slightly-below mid-March normals.
MRB
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The ridge-trough upper-level pattern currently across North America, with a cutoff low embedded in the ridge over the Desert Southwest, will begin to erode starting Wednesday. The resultant near-zonal flow aloft will introduce a more active pattern, higher uncertainty in our temperature forecast, and increased potential for precipitation later in the week. Our first threat for rain comes Thursday, when the cutoff low to our west dislodges and drifts east.
At the same time, most guidance depicts an amplified shortwave diving into the Great Lakes region amidst the cyclonic flow of a larger trough in eastern Canada. These features will be the focus for precipitation to our north and to our south, however we look to be forcing-starved between them. As such, barring any significant shift in these waves' characteristics, most of the forecast area will be dry. Chances for rain are highest (around 30%) in far northern and southern Missouri, closer to the forcing aloft.
This rain threat lingers in the forecast through into Friday and Saturday and expands across the forecast area, but this is moreso a reflection of how uncertain the forecast is. The track, speed, and amplitude of the shortwave forcing any rain is more uncertain later in the week, leading to broad, low rain chances (15-30%). That said, there will be plenty of dry time and any rain that does fall likely will be light. Low level moisture and humidity, as depicted in ensemble guidance, looks anomalously dry. Also, with instability at a premium (MUCAPE less than 100 J/kg) any convection that manages to develop will be very shallow and weak. The differences mentioned above also impact our temperature forecast, which becomes highly uncertain by the weekend. While we will generally remain near to below average into Friday, the temperature spread increases dramatically by the weekend. Subtle differences in the ensemble guidance regarding the upper level pattern (a weak ridge overhead vs northwest flow) is the main culprit for the uncertainty.
By Sunday, however, ensemble guidance converges a bit more on a large-scale upper-level trough digging into the western CONUS. The exact evolution is far from certain, but would result in southwest flow aloft and increased potential for more widespread and beneficial precipitation Sunday into early next week. ML/AI-based severe weather probability guidance is cluing in on the more favorable synoptic pattern for at least some threat of severe weather as well, and the CPC Precipitation Outlooks valid for this period also highlight the region for increased potential for above- normal precipitation. Temperature uncertainty remains relatively high during this time as well, but generally speaking we should warm to at least near-normal if not a bit warmer still.
MRB
AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Dry, VFR conditions along with a clear sky through the period.
Winds are the main focus, with northwest winds slackening quickly this evening. Most locations should have several hours of light/variable winds as a surface ridge moves across the region.
Late tonight, winds become more out of the southwest and increase in speed toward dusk. Gusts around 25 to perhaps 30 knots are forecast tomorrow across the area ahead of a cold front.
Gosselin
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
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