Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hettick, IL

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:01PM Thursday September 20, 2018 4:14 AM CDT (09:14 UTC) Moonrise 3:58PMMoonset 1:20AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hettick, IL
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location: 39.38, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 200801
afdlsx
area forecast discussion
national weather service saint louis mo
301 am cdt Thu sep 20 2018

Short term (through late tonight)
issued at 258 am cdt Thu sep 20 2018
the CWA remains within the warm sector of developing sfc low across
the plains. Aloft, a quite strong ridge remains over the region.

This setup will result in sly to swly winds thru the low levels.

Mdls advect 850mb temps of around 19c, which based on the past few
days, shud result in sfc temps in the low to perhaps mid 90s.

However, as experienced yesterday, isod to sct storms may help to
limit heating in some areas. Despite storms possible again today, as
discussed below, have made only minor changes to the prev forecast
for temps today. This is in part due to the timing showers storms
developing, but have temps in the kjef to kuin area close to
yesterday. Given the temps expected and warm dewpoints, heat index
values are currently expected to be in the 98 to 102 degree range.

Due to some uncertainty regarding temps due to anticipated storms,
will hold off on a heat headline.

Continued warm trend for tonight ahead of an approaching cdfnt as
clouds, sly to swly sfc winds and warm dewpoints will help keep
temps in the 70s except for NRN portions of the CWA as the fnt drops
into the area.

Pops today will once again be difficult to pin down, but believe
coverage will be better forecast. A few mdls are suggesting isod
showers possible shortly after sunrise, roughly from ksus to k3lf.

These showers shud move east and dissipate by 10 or 11 am. Mdls are
in fairly good agreement with isod to sct showers, and a few
thunderstorms, developing in the 2 to 3 pm, roughly from kjef to
kuin and surrounding areas. Given the available dcape across this
area, believe coverage will be more sct than isod and have gone with
chance pops across this region. Thunderstorms remain possible across
much of the rest of the cwa, but believe coverage will remain isod
and have kept slight chance pops in these areas.

Tilly

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 258 am cdt Thu sep 20 2018
the upper level ridging across the midwest will finally break down
on Friday when a shortwave is progged to pass through the region. By
Friday morning, the associated surface cyclone will already be near
the keweenaw peninsula, with it's cold front stretching back toward
sw kansas. As the parent low races to the ne, the front will drop
through the region, likely arriving in the st louis area around 12z.

The best frontal and upper level forcing will likely be north and
east of the area. This weak forcing coupled with decreasing morning
instability will cause frontal precip to decrease in coverage and
intensity as it swings through the northern cwa. Precipitation will
likely reignite along the front in the afternoon, but there is a
chance that the front completely clears the forecast area prior to
this happening. Afternoon instability will near 1500 j kg ahead of
the front and 0-6km bulk shear will be approach 40kts. If storms are
able to initiate prior to the front exiting the cwa, the above
cape shear forcing would support the potential for an isolated
severe threat. The SPC day 2 outlook shows this, with the marginal
risk just reaching into our cwa.

Meanwhile, a secondary, weaker low will be develop and move across
northern texas on Friday. With near stagnant upper level flow across
the southern conus, this low will very slowly drift eastward on
Saturday, causing the cold front to stall out across southern
missouri. This will result in additional chances for light
precipitation across southern mo Saturday and into Sunday.

Elsewhere, the post frontal air will be quite a bit cooler than what
we've seen the last several days, and it may finally begin to feel
like fall.

Upper level ridging will try to reestablish itself early next week,
allowing temperatures to creep to just above normal. However, both
the GFS and euro are showing a broad upper level wave pushing into
the region by midweek, reinforcing the cooler temperatures.

Additionally, this approaching trof will likely result in increasingly
wet conditions as we move through the early week.

Bsh

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1150 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
vfr conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. The already low chance for thunderstorms for early
Thursday morning looks to have lessened even more, with the
additional potential for isolated thunderstorms developing once
again with afternoon heating continuing on Thursday. However,
chances are too low to mention in the tafs at this time.

Additional rain chances associated with an approaching cold front
Thursday night look to primarily affect the TAF sites after the
valid period. There is also a low chance for a brief visibility
reduction due to mist just before sunrise Thursday at the better
sheltered sites of ksus and kcps, but have declined mention at
this time. Otherwise, look for light S surface winds to strengthen
on Thursday with gusts to 18-20kts especially NW of the stl metro
area. Marginal llws conditions will be found Thursday night late
in the valid period, but prefer to see a better setup before
mentioning so late in the period.

Specifics for kstl:VFR conditions are expected to prevail thru
the valid period. While there will be low chances for thunderstorms
on Thursday afternoon, chances are too low to mention at this
time, with the chances late Thursday night being not only low but
their timing will be at the very end of the valid period. Look
for light S surface winds to strengthen on Thursday. Gusts to
18kts are possible but currently we expect this to affect sites nw
of the stl metro area.

Tes

Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Litchfield Municipal Airport, IL25 mi40 minSE 35.00 miFog/Mist73°F72°F98%1015.6 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmN5E4S3CalmCalmSE3S7S9S8S7S5E9
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W4CalmW3E4CalmSW10W5W5NW4NW3SE3CalmNW3CalmS3CalmSW4NW5Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS3W4W5N9NW3N3W5SW6SW6W7W6W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (5,6,7,8)
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.