Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Hettick, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:40PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 9:53 PM CST (03:53 UTC) Moonrise 2:04PMMoonset 2:29AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hettick, IL
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location: 39.38, -90.06     debug

Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 190308
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service saint louis mo
908 pm cst Tue dec 18 2018

Issued at 904 pm cst Tue dec 18 2018
have been watching radar and am seeing the light rain sprinkles
drifting into northeast missouri. Hrrr has this very light
precipitation continuing to affect northeast missouri for a few
more hours this evening and overnight, and then lifting northeast
away from our forecast area. Am in the process of updating the
forecast to mention sprinkles for a few hours. Otherwise, the
forecast looks on track for the rest of tonight.


Short term (through late Wednesday night)
issued at 340 pm cst Tue dec 18 2018
the main focus in the short term will be the potential for
incoming precipitation late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night. High temperature Wednesday could be a bit tricky, pending
increasing cloud cover through the afternoon.

Analysis as of 3pm depicts a surface ridge over the southern end
of the great lakes region, which extends south into the tennessee
valley. Plenty of dry air has been funneled in from the east and
southeast around this feature, resulting in mainly clear skies
and mild conditions. Surface temperatures generally ranged from
the mid-40s to lower 50s over illinois to the mid-50s in central

Mid and upper troughing extends eastward from the central plains
over missouri and illinois, marking a gradual shift in flow out
of the south and southwest. Occasional mid and high clouds have
streamed through the area from time to time ahead of this trough,
but thicker cloud cover has made little eastward progress with
deep dry air over the st. Louis area. Cloud cover this afternoon
has been thin and scattered at best. This will likely be the theme
until after nightfall, when low level moisture begin to increase
ahead of the kansas shortwave and the surface ridge moves east.

The main weather-maker for late Wednesday is currently over
western texas. This is expected drive northeast through the
arklatex region and into the midwest by Wednesday night. In the
meantime, a surface cold front will extend south from the upper
midwest and work into western missouri. This creates a struggle
in timing the onset of rainfall as the closed low weakens and
ejects northeast ahead of the deepening upper trough. For now, it
looks like slight chances of precip will be introduced over
central missouri by late Wednesday afternoon, mainly along and
just ahead of the surface boundary. Additional rain is expected to
develop from the south in relation to main wave. It is likely
most rain will hold off until after sunset, when moisture finally
deepens through the area. Rain chances increase closer to midnight
and continue into early Thursday morning.

There is likely to be a range in temperature Wednesday afternoon
with a wide spread in ensembles. Low 50s are more probable under
cloud cover in central and northeast missouri. Outside this, where
there better potential for sunshine, highs could reach the mid to
upper 50s.


Long term (Thursday through next Tuesday)
issued at 340 pm cst Tue dec 18 2018
much of the activity in the long term lies within the first
several hours of the period. Otherwise, near to slight above
normal temperatures are favored with less certainty in the
potential for precipitation.

An amplified trough will develop almost overhead by Thursday
morning with another closed wave feature taking over in the
southern gulf states. While rainfall is not out of the question
through Thursday morning, much of it will come along the
convergence area along and just ahead of the surface boundary
pushing through from west to east. It's likely the bulk of the
ascent supporting any widespread rainfall will be south and east
of the metro area as the low continues to broaden over the east
coast through late Thursday into Friday. I wouldn't be too
surprised to see most of the rain ending between 18z-00z Thursday
afternoon. There's very little in the way of cold air to work with
as the h8 temps barely touch 0c with the lowest 5k feet of air
well above freezing. So, have little confidence in anything more
than a couple of snowflakes mixing in on the very back edge of the
system. No accumulation is expected.

Upper flow GOES zonal through much of the remainder of the period
with a couple of weak pulses moving west to east. While there is
some degree of disagreement in exact long range solutions, there
is a general theme for surface ridging to take over from west to
east from Sunday through late Monday. As the ridge moves east,
return flow kicks in on christmas eve with the potential for
additional precipitation to develop late in the day and into
christmas. There is plenty of spread in how this evolves but
should it materialize, most (if not all) looks to be in the form
of rain with near to above normal temperatures favored through
christmas day.


Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 536 pm cst Tue dec 18 2018
the primary concern for aviation interests tonight is the
possibility that MVFR ceilings may spread into parts of central
and northeast missouri from the southeast plains late tonight.

Several short-range models are showing this scenario, but there
are just as many which do not bring the low clouds into our area.

Additionally, the models that are bringing the low clouds in are
not doing very well with the current ceilings over arkansas and
are much too pessimistic at this time. Have therefore decided to
err on the side ofVFR tonight, but will monitor the clouds
closely this evening and update as needed.VFR conditions are
expected to prevail during the daylight hours on Wednesday with
the wind turning to the southwest ahead of a weak cold front.

Specifics for kstl:
will be watching for the potential development of MVFR ceilings
late tonight, but most guidance keepsVFR conditions over the st.

Louis metro area through sunrise. Wind will be turning to the
southwest ahead of a weak cold front. Lower ceilings will likely
move in Wednesday evening ahead of the front, but confidence is
not high on timing or height of the clouds at this time.


Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Litchfield Municipal Airport, IL25 mi59 minSSE 710.00 miFair35°F29°F78%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from 3LF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E3SE3SE5SE5SE7SE8S8S7S6S9S6SE6SE7SE4SE6SE8SE7
2 days agoN5NW8NW5NW4NW8NW4NW5NW5CalmW4W5W4W7W6W7W8W7W7W4W6W4NW6NW5W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Illinois, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.