Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Urbana, IL
March 18, 2024 8:46 PM CDT (01:46 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:56 AM Sunset 7:04 PM Moonrise 12:37 PM Moonset 3:49 AM |
Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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FXUS63 KILX 190107 AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 807 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Hard freeze expected (greater than 90% chance) again tonight.
Precautions should be taken to protect sensitive vegetation.
- Dry and windy tomorrow, leading to elevated fire danger. There is a 70-80% chance west-southwest gusts surpass 40 mph at some point mid morning through early afternoon.
- Small (10-15%) chance for accumulating snow in a narrow band across some portion of the area Thursday morning. 60-90% chance for another hard freeze Thursday morning.
- Late Thursday night into Friday, additional precipitation is expected, with some snow mixing in mainly north of I-74.
UPDATE
Issued at 807 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Other than the cold, it looks to be a quiet night tonight. Lows should to be mostly in the mid to upper 20s tonight. The latest surface analysis had a high centered over eastern OK with a surface ridge extending northeast through the mid MS River Valley.
The high gets suppressed southward as a low moves into the western Great Lakes by Tuesday morning, increasing southwesterly winds across IL. Most of the clouds have moved east of the area, except for some near the IN border. Made some sky and temp modifications with the recent update. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track for tonight.
Knutsvig
DISCUSSION
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A dreary, winter-like day in central Illinois, temps have only warmed into the mid to upper 30s this afternoon, and, despite the dry boundary layer, sporadic snow flurries have been observed mainly northeast of a Peoria to Paris line amidst sfc based instability poking into the DGZ. As that instability wanes with both the loss of sfc heating and eastward shift of coldest temps aloft this evening, those flurries should come to an end. However, weak cold advection will continue overnight on the northeast periphery of the sfc high, fostering temps dropping once again into the 20s. NBM suggests greater than 90% probabilities for a hard freeze (i.e., sub 28 degF low temps) and 50-80% chances (highest east of the IL River) for sub 25 degF lows tonight into tomorrow morning, which is certainly cold enough to damage sensitive vegetation. For this reason, we've once again issued an SPS to raise awareness and encourage those with tender vegetation to take precautions.
HRRR guidance is suggesting few, if any, clouds tomorrow morning, so we should be quick to radiationally warm up after sunrise. This will also allow some of the 40-45 kt WSW winds at 925mb to mix down to the sfc for quite the breezy morning. The NAMNest, being its usual self and likely overmixing the (hopefully decoupled) boundary layer, is suggesting widespread 50+ mph gusts beneath this LLJ around 5-8am tomorrow, which is the culprit for the HRRR ensemble max. I don't want to dismiss that as though it couldn't materialize - especially given our winds have overperformed a bit lately - but it's definitely the outlier of the CAMs. Nonetheless, the HRRR suggests an abrupt uptick in winds around 14z/9am, with gusts to about 45 mph for a couple hours thereafter, in line with the suggested peak theoretical gusts using the mixing technique from BUFKIT forecast soundings. At this point, there's just not the confidence in a reasonable duration of near/above criteria (45 mph) wind gusts to issue a Wind Advisory, but we'll let the evening and overnight shifts reassess that potential. Given these strong winds, RH values in the 25-35% range, and 10 hour dead fuel moisture values in the 8- 10% range, any fires that develop tomorrow could spread quickly.
We'd like to encourage folks to limit burning, have fire suppression equipment ready if you intend to burn, and use caution with outdoor equipment; as always, do not carelessly discard cigarettes.
Winds will veer to northwesterly and gradually ease behind an ill- defined cool front tomorrow afternoon and evening with a better shot of the cooler air aloft sliding southward into our area tomorrow night. Cloud cover and lingering wind will keep us from radiating out fully Wednesday morning, but will also suppress our afternoon highs with temps expected to fall shy of 50 everywhere north of I- 70. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, temps are expected to fall once again into the 20s with NBM suggesting a greater than 60% chance for a hard freeze north of a Beardstown to Robinson line, and a greater than 80% chance north of I-74. The bigger concern heading into Thursday morning, however, would be the (low) potential for snow. At this point, ensemble agreement was not high enough to even warrant PoPs as just a couple models are showing QPF...and there's considerable spread in where they have it. However, wherever this QPF sets up, the thermodynamic environment characterized by modestly steep lapse rates (and saturation or near saturation) in the DGZ, 850mb temps of -2 to -5 degC, and sub freezing sfc temps would be conducive to a quick couple inches of accumulation along a narrow corridor. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates on this.
With two systems - one diving in from the northwest and another lifting up from the south - merging as they move through/out of our area, another shot of precip is expected mainly Friday morning. At this point, the highest chance for wintry precip getting mixed in is north of I-74, and accumulations are not looking likely with this wave. Once again, though, stay tuned to the forecast for the latest, as it's subject to change.
Temperatures should stay near normal through Saturday, but then warm Sunday into Monday ahead of the next system. The evolution of this potentially potent storm is still in question, but most guidance takes it to our west which would lead to well-above normal temps for us particularly on Monday when several EPS members bring 70+ degF temps north to I-72. The CSU MLP brings a 5% contour for severe wx nearly as far north which seems reasonable; confidence is certainly low in severe potential given the possibility of poor alignment between most favorable kinematics (north) and thermodynamic support (south), but like the rest of the forecast we will keep a watchful eye on it as forthcoming model iterations give new insight.
Bumgardner
AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period. The winds will lose their gusts by 00-01Z and get it back early in the morning, around 13-14Z, from the southwest. Expect another breezy day tomorrow. LLWS will be possible in the PIA area and west tomorrow morning (11Z-14Z). Will include with the next update if likelihood increases.
Knutsvig
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 807 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Hard freeze expected (greater than 90% chance) again tonight.
Precautions should be taken to protect sensitive vegetation.
- Dry and windy tomorrow, leading to elevated fire danger. There is a 70-80% chance west-southwest gusts surpass 40 mph at some point mid morning through early afternoon.
- Small (10-15%) chance for accumulating snow in a narrow band across some portion of the area Thursday morning. 60-90% chance for another hard freeze Thursday morning.
- Late Thursday night into Friday, additional precipitation is expected, with some snow mixing in mainly north of I-74.
UPDATE
Issued at 807 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Other than the cold, it looks to be a quiet night tonight. Lows should to be mostly in the mid to upper 20s tonight. The latest surface analysis had a high centered over eastern OK with a surface ridge extending northeast through the mid MS River Valley.
The high gets suppressed southward as a low moves into the western Great Lakes by Tuesday morning, increasing southwesterly winds across IL. Most of the clouds have moved east of the area, except for some near the IN border. Made some sky and temp modifications with the recent update. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track for tonight.
Knutsvig
DISCUSSION
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A dreary, winter-like day in central Illinois, temps have only warmed into the mid to upper 30s this afternoon, and, despite the dry boundary layer, sporadic snow flurries have been observed mainly northeast of a Peoria to Paris line amidst sfc based instability poking into the DGZ. As that instability wanes with both the loss of sfc heating and eastward shift of coldest temps aloft this evening, those flurries should come to an end. However, weak cold advection will continue overnight on the northeast periphery of the sfc high, fostering temps dropping once again into the 20s. NBM suggests greater than 90% probabilities for a hard freeze (i.e., sub 28 degF low temps) and 50-80% chances (highest east of the IL River) for sub 25 degF lows tonight into tomorrow morning, which is certainly cold enough to damage sensitive vegetation. For this reason, we've once again issued an SPS to raise awareness and encourage those with tender vegetation to take precautions.
HRRR guidance is suggesting few, if any, clouds tomorrow morning, so we should be quick to radiationally warm up after sunrise. This will also allow some of the 40-45 kt WSW winds at 925mb to mix down to the sfc for quite the breezy morning. The NAMNest, being its usual self and likely overmixing the (hopefully decoupled) boundary layer, is suggesting widespread 50+ mph gusts beneath this LLJ around 5-8am tomorrow, which is the culprit for the HRRR ensemble max. I don't want to dismiss that as though it couldn't materialize - especially given our winds have overperformed a bit lately - but it's definitely the outlier of the CAMs. Nonetheless, the HRRR suggests an abrupt uptick in winds around 14z/9am, with gusts to about 45 mph for a couple hours thereafter, in line with the suggested peak theoretical gusts using the mixing technique from BUFKIT forecast soundings. At this point, there's just not the confidence in a reasonable duration of near/above criteria (45 mph) wind gusts to issue a Wind Advisory, but we'll let the evening and overnight shifts reassess that potential. Given these strong winds, RH values in the 25-35% range, and 10 hour dead fuel moisture values in the 8- 10% range, any fires that develop tomorrow could spread quickly.
We'd like to encourage folks to limit burning, have fire suppression equipment ready if you intend to burn, and use caution with outdoor equipment; as always, do not carelessly discard cigarettes.
Winds will veer to northwesterly and gradually ease behind an ill- defined cool front tomorrow afternoon and evening with a better shot of the cooler air aloft sliding southward into our area tomorrow night. Cloud cover and lingering wind will keep us from radiating out fully Wednesday morning, but will also suppress our afternoon highs with temps expected to fall shy of 50 everywhere north of I- 70. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, temps are expected to fall once again into the 20s with NBM suggesting a greater than 60% chance for a hard freeze north of a Beardstown to Robinson line, and a greater than 80% chance north of I-74. The bigger concern heading into Thursday morning, however, would be the (low) potential for snow. At this point, ensemble agreement was not high enough to even warrant PoPs as just a couple models are showing QPF...and there's considerable spread in where they have it. However, wherever this QPF sets up, the thermodynamic environment characterized by modestly steep lapse rates (and saturation or near saturation) in the DGZ, 850mb temps of -2 to -5 degC, and sub freezing sfc temps would be conducive to a quick couple inches of accumulation along a narrow corridor. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates on this.
With two systems - one diving in from the northwest and another lifting up from the south - merging as they move through/out of our area, another shot of precip is expected mainly Friday morning. At this point, the highest chance for wintry precip getting mixed in is north of I-74, and accumulations are not looking likely with this wave. Once again, though, stay tuned to the forecast for the latest, as it's subject to change.
Temperatures should stay near normal through Saturday, but then warm Sunday into Monday ahead of the next system. The evolution of this potentially potent storm is still in question, but most guidance takes it to our west which would lead to well-above normal temps for us particularly on Monday when several EPS members bring 70+ degF temps north to I-72. The CSU MLP brings a 5% contour for severe wx nearly as far north which seems reasonable; confidence is certainly low in severe potential given the possibility of poor alignment between most favorable kinematics (north) and thermodynamic support (south), but like the rest of the forecast we will keep a watchful eye on it as forthcoming model iterations give new insight.
Bumgardner
AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period. The winds will lose their gusts by 00-01Z and get it back early in the morning, around 13-14Z, from the southwest. Expect another breezy day tomorrow. LLWS will be possible in the PIA area and west tomorrow morning (11Z-14Z). Will include with the next update if likelihood increases.
Knutsvig
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KCMI UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOISWILLARD,IL | 6 sm | 53 min | W 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 32°F | 18°F | 55% | 30.17 | |
KTIP RANTOUL NATL AVN CNTRFRANK ELLIOTT FLD,IL | 13 sm | 11 min | WSW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 30°F | 16°F | 55% | 30.15 |
Central Illinois, IL,
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