Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Urbana, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 7:41PM Monday August 21, 2017 6:50 AM CDT (11:50 UTC) Moonrise 5:54AMMoonset 7:48PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Urbana, IL
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location: 40.11, -88.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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Fxus63 kilx 211100
afdilx
area forecast discussion
national weather service lincoln il
600 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 230 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017
will be watching current MCS over iowa closely this morning as it
moves east toward forecast area. Orientation of LLJ feeding the
complex suggests that convection may fire along the nw-se boundary
in place near i-74 toward sunrise this morning. Unlike the past
two mornings, rap is forecasting around 2000 j kg of elevated
cape will still be available to tap near the boundary at 12z,
wouldn't be surprised to see the boundary remain active at least
through the morning with a general trend of redevelopment east and
southeast. Blow-off cloudiness will likely be somewhat of an
issue for eclipse viewing.

A break is possible once the storms move through as a brief
period of shortwave ridging moves across illinois during the
middle afternoon and evening ahead of a stronger wave plunging
into the midwest as the overall flow amplifies. In addition a wave
currently over southern high plains is forecast to phase with the
northern stream wave in the missouri valley providing additional
dynamics. Winds from 950mb on up increase to over 30 kts by 09z
suggesting that there is potential for significant winds with some
of the stronger storms late tonight.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 230 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017
as the wave amplifies the eastern u.S. Trough, its associated cold
front should move quickly through the forecast area. Some of the
storms Tuesday morning through midday ahead of the front may be
strong southeast of i-70 with again wind being the primary threat.

Front clears the forecast area by 00z bringing in drier and cooler
weather into next weekend. Differences in model evolution with a
potential cutoff system over the upper mississippi valley great
lakes early next week are too significant to include in this
package.

Temperatures behind the front should be mostly 5-10 degrees below
normal with a warming trend toward normal by next weekend.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 600 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017
thunderstorm complex over iowa continues to progress toward
illinois. Cams this morning seem to be handling the overall
evolution reasonable but a bit slow on the development east and
southeast. Convection will likely form southeast along a boundary
in place near i-74 this morning. SPC mesosnalysis indicates cape
gradient evident along boundary and will probably focus new
development. 08z hrrr shows convection impacting all central
illinois terminals except possibly kspi between 15z and 19z as it
travels southeast. Will follow this general trend with a
correction of timing.

Should be a lull between this initial convection and development
along and ahead of cold front expected to approach the area
tonight. Strong dynamics and deep moisture will likely lead to
widespread convection after 06z. Model are in pretty good
agreement on timing precip. Since the impact will be mostly in the
outlook period and some uncertainty exists will keep CIGS and
vsbysVFR but would be surprised to see some MVFR CIGS and vsbys
at times.

Ilx watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Barker
long term... Barker
aviation... Barker


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
University of Illinois - Willard, IL6 mi57 minSSW 66.00 miFog/Mist71°F70°F96%1018.4 hPa
Rantoul National Aviation Center Airport, IL13 mi75 minN 07.00 miFair72°F70°F98%1019 hPa

Wind History from CMI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE5S5S5S5SE4S5SW5W5SE3S5S7SE4SE4SE5SE5S6S9S7S6S4S5S5S6
1 day agoCalmN45E8E7CalmCalm4S33N44N4N3NE3E4NE5E3E4E4E4E3E4E4
2 days agoW3SW5W8W11W12
G19
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G16
W8W9W7SW7W9SW7SW6SW6S5SW4W5CalmCalmS4S3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Central Illinois, IL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Illinois, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.