Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Urbana, IL

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 6:55PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 11:51 AM CDT (16:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:12PMMoonset 1:18AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Urbana, IL
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location: 40.11, -88.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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Fxus63 kilx 191517
afdilx
area forecast discussion
national weather service lincoln il
1017 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018

Update
Issued at 1017 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018
a frontal zone is stretched east-west across illinois between the
i-72 and i-70 corridors this morning set to lift northward across
the state today as southerly flow slowly increases. This will
bring a strong increase in heat for most areas. At 10 a.M.

Temperatures north of the front are in the 70s with dewpoints in
the mid 60s, and to the south temperatures and dewpoints are in
the 80s and low 70s, respectively. As a result, highs should reach
the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index approaching 100,
especially south of i-72. Currently, a couple clusters of showers
and thunderstorms are in west central and southern illinois.

Convective-allowing models generally weaken these two clusters
through the late morning, followed by isolated thunderstorms
developing across the area with afternoon heating. Current
forecast depicts these features, and no significant updates are
needed this morning.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 331 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018
lack of pressure gradient this morning in the region, with a weak
remnant of a boundary lagging across central il. Southerly winds
are expected to pick up and eventually push that boundary back to
the north. However, weak showers and thunderstorms are inching
into western il early, and this trend will keep some clouds around
early. Models a little conflicted with the shower thunderstorm
activity throughout today. Will be the potential for
isolated scattered activity through the day, given the
temperatures once again climbing into the low 90s upper 80s. More
clouds today expected to help keep the temperatures down a couple
of degrees, but concerned that that switch to a more southerly
flow regime will counter. With the southerly winds, however, the
threat for precip will also shift more to the north by later this
evening. Heat indexes will be well into the 90s, approaching 100
degrees in some locations in the southern half of the state.

Dewpoints slowly creep up through the day, potentially into the
70s in some locations with any showers lack of mixing out. Overnight
tonight, temps only drop in the low 70s, continuing the warm and
muggy warm september. Any afternoon showers will just enhance
that low level moisture and potentially set up a patchy fog chance
again for tonight.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 331 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018
front to the north provides more of a focus for showers, and much
of Thursday is dry as a result. However, a low develops over the
rockies and kicks out through the great lakes Thu night Friday,
dragging a cold front through the region. Models still working out
precip both ahead of and behind the boundary given the hot and
muggy airmass. Though air is plenty warm and muggy ahead of the
boundary, the thermal profiles through the midlevels is more
moderate, a little lacking in higher lapse rates. However, the
wave itself is stronger, and will be moving the front through a
more zonal perpendicular flow than has previously been advertised
with this boundary. As a result, the severe threat may be a little
better, if conditional to diurnal heating position, etc. Marginal
risk is in place for day 3 outlook.

The more aggressive faster movement of the boundary is pushing the
precip into the ohio river valley much more quickly Fri night sat.

Weekend forecast is then looking increasingly drier and temps much
more seasonal for late september at least on Saturday. By Sunday,
however, those midlevels that did not quite get the cooler temps
with the front start to dominate again, and southwesterly flow
helps pick up yet another warming trend for temps in the upper
70s by Sunday in western il.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 545 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018
mainlyVFR conditions expected this forecast period. We may see
a couple hours of patchy ground fog that may bring vsby down to
5-6sm until 13z this morning. Otherwise, forecast soundings
indicate some scattered to broken high based cumulus at 5000 to
6000 feet later this morning into the afternoon hours. A weak
frontal boundary, residual outflow boundary, from yesterday
afternoon's storms was just to our south this morning and will
start to edge back north today. This weak boundary will be the
focus for some isolated to widely scattered storms, especially
during the afternoon and early evening hours and mainly for pia
and bmi. Even in these areas, coverage looks rather limited so
will continue to carry vcts in the 20z-00z time frame. It appears
any storms that do form this afternoon should shift to our north
by tonight so will keep any mention of showers or storms out of
the tafs after 00z. Light east to southeast flow today will
gradually veer into a southerly direction tonight with speeds of
10 kts or less.

Ilx watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... 37
short term... Hjs
long term... Hjs
aviation... Smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
University of Illinois - Willard, IL6 mi58 minE 910.00 miA Few Clouds85°F66°F55%1016 hPa
Rantoul National Aviation Center Airport, IL13 mi76 minESE 610.00 miFair83°F68°F63%1016.6 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmW4W3W5N5N6N6NE11NE6E6E5NE5NE9NE9E7NE9E7NE6NE5NE7NE11E9E7E9
1 day agoNW4N5NE54CalmCalmW7W4W5NW6NW6NW5CalmNW4W5W3W5W5W4W4NW3W3NW4NW4
2 days agoE85E4NE75NE4E9E6SE5SE4SE5E3CalmE5CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3CalmCalmW4W6N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Central Illinois, IL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Illinois, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.