Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hideout, UT
March 18, 2024 10:24 PM MDT (04:24 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:31 AM Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 12:12 PM Moonset 3:27 AM |
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KSLC 182211 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 411 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to build into northern Utah maintaining warm, dry, and stable conditions through the week.
Meanwhile, a closed low over Arizona will persist will minimal impacts to southern Utah into Tuesday.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Northern and central Utah will persist under the influence of high pressure, allowing for dry conditions and generally cloudless skies. Temperatures are forecast a good 10 degrees above seasonal normals for the official start to spring tomorrow. Similar temperatures and weather conditions are anticipated for Wednesday.
Meanwhile, continuing to sit over Arizona lies our pesky upper low which is influencing weather conditions across southern Utah.
Partly cloudy skies are noted here with the slightest of chances for a rain shower or two are noted this evening. Chances for a shower will persist headed into Tuesday as well, for much of the same locations, including the Grand Staircase, Bryce Canyon, Zion and the greater St. George vicinity. In addition, northeast and easterly breezes are forecast tonight and into tomorrow. We do finally see progress in the movement of the aforementioned low by Wednesday to the east, which will shift flow more out of the northwest across southern Utah. This northwest flow is expected to increase across eastern Utah on Wednesday as well, particularly over the Central Mountains and western Uintas. We are not talking about any sort of substantial wind here (about a 60% chance for gusts in excess of 30 knots) but an increase in wind gusts none- the- less.
LONG TERM
(After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Broad ridging in place across the western U.S. will remain the dominant weather feature through the end of the week, keeping largely dry and mild conditions in the forecast for a vast majority of Utah and southwest Wyoming. That said, an upstream trough over the northeast Pacific is anticipated to move inland late in the week (around the Thursday/ Friday timeframe), tracking across the northern Rockies region. While moderate ridging will still be in place across Utah, deterministic guidance is showing potential for a portion of this wave to move over the northern portions of Utah and southwest Wyoming, with ~30% of ensemble members are showing potential for light precipitation across portions of the northern half of Utah and southwest Wyoming.
With a lack of strong synoptic support, any precipitation that does fall will be light with snowfall confined to the higher peaks across this region. Temperatures across roughly the southern two-thirds of the forecast area will see minimal change, with at least a 2-3 degree drop in temperatures across the northern third of the area as this wave introduces a weak front. Even with this potential for a weak front, daytime high temperatures are expected to run 5-10 degrees above average for this time of year.
Progressing further into the weekend, a regime transition seems very likely as ensemble guidance shows strong support for the aforementioned ridge shifting east and a trough moving in from the northeast Pacific. This is evident when looking at ensemble guidance for large scale pattern indices, with guidance showing high confidence in the Pacific-North American pattern flipping from a positive phase (ridging in the West) to a negative phase (troughing in the West). While short lived, this regime change should usher in colder air temperatures and a round of fairly widespread precipitation across Utah and southwest Wyoming. The details of how this precipitation comes into the area are still relatively uncertain at this point, however, current deterministic guidance is showing potential for a majority of the precipitation to be focused along a frontal boundary as the colder air pushes into the forecast area.
Ahead of this cold frontal boundary, lower-level flow will likely increase and bringing stronger surface winds across the western half of Utah. Current NBM guidance showing peak wind gusts around 45-50 mph across the southwestern and eastern Utah valley areas.
Increasing guidance to the 75th percentile peak wind gusts shows potential for these stronger winds to creep into the Wasatch Front, with peak gusts in the southwest and eastern valleys pushing into the 60 mph range Saturday afternoon and evening. Will certainly need to monitor trends in these winds going forward as wind headlines may need to be considered.
As far as precipitation timing goes, the most likely period of precipitation is beginning to be confined to some time between late Saturday and Sunday morning. Given the warm antecedent conditions, valley areas below ~7,500ft MSL will see rain as the dominant precipitation type. As the frontal boundary progresses through the region, snow levels will drop to around 5,000ft MSL, potentially lower. There is considerable uncertainty revolving around whether or not the snow levels will drop to valley floors around the same time as the heavier precipitation... which could either lead to substantial snow potential in the valleys, or very little snow accumulation potential in the valleys. In general, current guidance is showing little potential for snow accumulation of more than 0.5 inches in the Wasatch Front and Cache, with upwards of 2 inches possible for the Wasatch Back and Uinta County through the duration of the event (which is also potentially through Monday/ Tuesday).
Plenty of aspects to dissect over the coming days, but at the very least, it's looking likely that we'll see a widespread round of mixed valley precipitation and mountain snow, as well as colder, more winter-like temperatures as we head through the weekend.
AVIATION
KSLC...Light northwest flow will transition to southeast around 04Z with clear conditions through the TAF period.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Light winds with clear skies will last through the TAF period for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. There will be a slightly more cloud cover throughout southern Utah. There is a slight chance for an isolated rain or mountain snow shower after around 20Z.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 411 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to build into northern Utah maintaining warm, dry, and stable conditions through the week.
Meanwhile, a closed low over Arizona will persist will minimal impacts to southern Utah into Tuesday.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Northern and central Utah will persist under the influence of high pressure, allowing for dry conditions and generally cloudless skies. Temperatures are forecast a good 10 degrees above seasonal normals for the official start to spring tomorrow. Similar temperatures and weather conditions are anticipated for Wednesday.
Meanwhile, continuing to sit over Arizona lies our pesky upper low which is influencing weather conditions across southern Utah.
Partly cloudy skies are noted here with the slightest of chances for a rain shower or two are noted this evening. Chances for a shower will persist headed into Tuesday as well, for much of the same locations, including the Grand Staircase, Bryce Canyon, Zion and the greater St. George vicinity. In addition, northeast and easterly breezes are forecast tonight and into tomorrow. We do finally see progress in the movement of the aforementioned low by Wednesday to the east, which will shift flow more out of the northwest across southern Utah. This northwest flow is expected to increase across eastern Utah on Wednesday as well, particularly over the Central Mountains and western Uintas. We are not talking about any sort of substantial wind here (about a 60% chance for gusts in excess of 30 knots) but an increase in wind gusts none- the- less.
LONG TERM
(After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Broad ridging in place across the western U.S. will remain the dominant weather feature through the end of the week, keeping largely dry and mild conditions in the forecast for a vast majority of Utah and southwest Wyoming. That said, an upstream trough over the northeast Pacific is anticipated to move inland late in the week (around the Thursday/ Friday timeframe), tracking across the northern Rockies region. While moderate ridging will still be in place across Utah, deterministic guidance is showing potential for a portion of this wave to move over the northern portions of Utah and southwest Wyoming, with ~30% of ensemble members are showing potential for light precipitation across portions of the northern half of Utah and southwest Wyoming.
With a lack of strong synoptic support, any precipitation that does fall will be light with snowfall confined to the higher peaks across this region. Temperatures across roughly the southern two-thirds of the forecast area will see minimal change, with at least a 2-3 degree drop in temperatures across the northern third of the area as this wave introduces a weak front. Even with this potential for a weak front, daytime high temperatures are expected to run 5-10 degrees above average for this time of year.
Progressing further into the weekend, a regime transition seems very likely as ensemble guidance shows strong support for the aforementioned ridge shifting east and a trough moving in from the northeast Pacific. This is evident when looking at ensemble guidance for large scale pattern indices, with guidance showing high confidence in the Pacific-North American pattern flipping from a positive phase (ridging in the West) to a negative phase (troughing in the West). While short lived, this regime change should usher in colder air temperatures and a round of fairly widespread precipitation across Utah and southwest Wyoming. The details of how this precipitation comes into the area are still relatively uncertain at this point, however, current deterministic guidance is showing potential for a majority of the precipitation to be focused along a frontal boundary as the colder air pushes into the forecast area.
Ahead of this cold frontal boundary, lower-level flow will likely increase and bringing stronger surface winds across the western half of Utah. Current NBM guidance showing peak wind gusts around 45-50 mph across the southwestern and eastern Utah valley areas.
Increasing guidance to the 75th percentile peak wind gusts shows potential for these stronger winds to creep into the Wasatch Front, with peak gusts in the southwest and eastern valleys pushing into the 60 mph range Saturday afternoon and evening. Will certainly need to monitor trends in these winds going forward as wind headlines may need to be considered.
As far as precipitation timing goes, the most likely period of precipitation is beginning to be confined to some time between late Saturday and Sunday morning. Given the warm antecedent conditions, valley areas below ~7,500ft MSL will see rain as the dominant precipitation type. As the frontal boundary progresses through the region, snow levels will drop to around 5,000ft MSL, potentially lower. There is considerable uncertainty revolving around whether or not the snow levels will drop to valley floors around the same time as the heavier precipitation... which could either lead to substantial snow potential in the valleys, or very little snow accumulation potential in the valleys. In general, current guidance is showing little potential for snow accumulation of more than 0.5 inches in the Wasatch Front and Cache, with upwards of 2 inches possible for the Wasatch Back and Uinta County through the duration of the event (which is also potentially through Monday/ Tuesday).
Plenty of aspects to dissect over the coming days, but at the very least, it's looking likely that we'll see a widespread round of mixed valley precipitation and mountain snow, as well as colder, more winter-like temperatures as we head through the weekend.
AVIATION
KSLC...Light northwest flow will transition to southeast around 04Z with clear conditions through the TAF period.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Light winds with clear skies will last through the TAF period for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. There will be a slightly more cloud cover throughout southern Utah. There is a slight chance for an isolated rain or mountain snow shower after around 20Z.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KHCR HEBER VALLEY,UT | 10 sm | 29 min | ESE 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 37°F | 25°F | 60% | 30.19 |
Salt Lake City, UT,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE