Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Beach-Captree, NY
March 28, 2024 3:43 PM EDT (19:43 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:40 AM Sunset 7:15 PM Moonrise 10:55 PM Moonset 8:02 AM |
ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1038 Am Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through late tonight - .
Today - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Periods of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Periods of rain.
Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night - NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 1038 Am Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pres develops along the carolina coast today, then tracks over the atlc and E of the waters on Fri. The low reaches the canadian maritimes Sat. A clipper type system passes to the south and east late Saturday and Saturday night. High pressure briefly returns Sunday before another low pressure system impacts the region Monday.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 281813 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 213 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure develops along the Carolina coast today, then tracks up the Atlantic and east of the region on Friday. The low reaches the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday. High pressure briefly returns Sunday before another low pressure system impacts the region Monday through Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to temperature and dew points to reflect the most recent observations.
Periods of rain expected through the day. Deep lift expected with the jet in a favorable position. Heaviest rain will be for the central and eastern portions of the CWA based on the trajectory of the moisture plume on water vapor and the modeling which was in good agreement.
A coastal low off of North Carolina is modeled to gradually deepen through the day, dropping about 10-15 mb by 6Z Fri. The low will begin to get better organized by 12Z Fri as the northern stream trough fuels development, but at this point the low should be E of the benchmark.
Used NBM pops for the timing of the back edge of the rain tonight. If the track and timing holds, W of the Hudson would be dry by midnight. The rain hangs on a little longer eastern zones, particularly the Twin Forks, but there is little evidence in the 00Z runs of significant wraparound pcpn with the low, at least for our CWA
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The low deepens significantly on Fri as it tracks towards the Maritimes. Deep mixing on nwly flow will produce a windy day.
Although not extreme, there could be some gusts to around 35-40 mph with winds in the 25-35kt range thru h85. Some high based cu is modeled in both the NAM and GFS due to steep low and mid lvl lapse rates.
Breezy near the coasts Fri ngt as the flow aloft strengthens, but the cooling bl will be a limiting factor. Temps in the 30s per the NBM which was used.
Dry to start on Sat then there is a chance for some light rain by late aftn and Sat ngt. There is still some uncertainty as the clipper type low is too far S in the GFS to produce pcpn. The ECMWF and NAM are the wetter solns. Pops about 20 percent for this event attm. The NBM was followed for temps.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
No significant changes in the long term period. Zonal flow become reestablished Sunday night and yet another upper trough and surface frontal system will be quickly approaching for Monday. Initially, a warm front will move toward the area Monday, and then the associated low will move slowly eastward into the region Tuesday and Wednesday. With near seasonal temperatures through much of the extended period, except slightly above for Saturday and Sunday, all liquid precipitation is expected. And NBM temperatures looked reasonable through the extended and were used.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front eventually gives way to low pressure offshore moving northeast during the TAF period.
Rain will linger across most of the terminals through this afternoon into the evening. Rain appears to just be in the vicinity of KSWF so mainly dry conditions anticipated there.
For the rest of the terminals, the rain will taper off late tonight from west to east. KGON could have rain linger on into Friday morning.
MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue through the rest of this afternoon with much of the IFR outside of NYC terminals. Towards early evening, expecting mainly MVFR for NYC terminals and to the north and west. To the east of NYC terminals, mainly IFR this evening, improving to MVFR overnight. Overnight, eventual improvement to VFR expected for all terminals except KGON where MVFR will still be likely going into early Friday.
Winds will be northerly near 10 kt this afternoon. KGON winds will stay more variable direction with speeds near 5 kts until late this afternoon. Tonight into Friday, winds will be NW. The wind speed increases to 10-15 kt this evening, and then 15-20 kt overnight into Friday. Gusts develop this evening to near 20 kt and then mainly in the 25-30 kt range overnight into Friday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Category could fluctuate between MVFR and IFR before 00Z. Gusts to 20 kt could develop 1-3 hours earlier than forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.
Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR at night, possibly mixed with snow for KSWF. W-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt day. Gusts diminish at night.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.
Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.
Tuesday: Rain likely with MVFR or lower conditions. E wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
A sca remains in effect for the cntrl and ern ocean today for 5 ft seas. Wind will otherwise be lgt, but pick up tngt on all waters as low pres develops. A sca for the protected waters and a gale watch for the ocean remain in effect for tngt. Winds were too mrgnl to convert the watch to a warning attm.
For Fri into Sat, solid sca cond expected. There is a chc for gales Fri and Fri ngt, but it is too mrgnl attm to go with a watch.
A light flow is expected Sunday through Monday as high pressure moves through the forecast waters and conditions remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters.
HYDROLOGY
Up to 1 inch if additional rainfall is expected for the eastern CWA No hydrologic impacts are expected with the additional rainfall.
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated into the middle of next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353.
Gale Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through late tonight for ANZ350-353-355.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 213 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure develops along the Carolina coast today, then tracks up the Atlantic and east of the region on Friday. The low reaches the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday. High pressure briefly returns Sunday before another low pressure system impacts the region Monday through Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to temperature and dew points to reflect the most recent observations.
Periods of rain expected through the day. Deep lift expected with the jet in a favorable position. Heaviest rain will be for the central and eastern portions of the CWA based on the trajectory of the moisture plume on water vapor and the modeling which was in good agreement.
A coastal low off of North Carolina is modeled to gradually deepen through the day, dropping about 10-15 mb by 6Z Fri. The low will begin to get better organized by 12Z Fri as the northern stream trough fuels development, but at this point the low should be E of the benchmark.
Used NBM pops for the timing of the back edge of the rain tonight. If the track and timing holds, W of the Hudson would be dry by midnight. The rain hangs on a little longer eastern zones, particularly the Twin Forks, but there is little evidence in the 00Z runs of significant wraparound pcpn with the low, at least for our CWA
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The low deepens significantly on Fri as it tracks towards the Maritimes. Deep mixing on nwly flow will produce a windy day.
Although not extreme, there could be some gusts to around 35-40 mph with winds in the 25-35kt range thru h85. Some high based cu is modeled in both the NAM and GFS due to steep low and mid lvl lapse rates.
Breezy near the coasts Fri ngt as the flow aloft strengthens, but the cooling bl will be a limiting factor. Temps in the 30s per the NBM which was used.
Dry to start on Sat then there is a chance for some light rain by late aftn and Sat ngt. There is still some uncertainty as the clipper type low is too far S in the GFS to produce pcpn. The ECMWF and NAM are the wetter solns. Pops about 20 percent for this event attm. The NBM was followed for temps.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
No significant changes in the long term period. Zonal flow become reestablished Sunday night and yet another upper trough and surface frontal system will be quickly approaching for Monday. Initially, a warm front will move toward the area Monday, and then the associated low will move slowly eastward into the region Tuesday and Wednesday. With near seasonal temperatures through much of the extended period, except slightly above for Saturday and Sunday, all liquid precipitation is expected. And NBM temperatures looked reasonable through the extended and were used.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front eventually gives way to low pressure offshore moving northeast during the TAF period.
Rain will linger across most of the terminals through this afternoon into the evening. Rain appears to just be in the vicinity of KSWF so mainly dry conditions anticipated there.
For the rest of the terminals, the rain will taper off late tonight from west to east. KGON could have rain linger on into Friday morning.
MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue through the rest of this afternoon with much of the IFR outside of NYC terminals. Towards early evening, expecting mainly MVFR for NYC terminals and to the north and west. To the east of NYC terminals, mainly IFR this evening, improving to MVFR overnight. Overnight, eventual improvement to VFR expected for all terminals except KGON where MVFR will still be likely going into early Friday.
Winds will be northerly near 10 kt this afternoon. KGON winds will stay more variable direction with speeds near 5 kts until late this afternoon. Tonight into Friday, winds will be NW. The wind speed increases to 10-15 kt this evening, and then 15-20 kt overnight into Friday. Gusts develop this evening to near 20 kt and then mainly in the 25-30 kt range overnight into Friday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Category could fluctuate between MVFR and IFR before 00Z. Gusts to 20 kt could develop 1-3 hours earlier than forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.
Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR at night, possibly mixed with snow for KSWF. W-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt day. Gusts diminish at night.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.
Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.
Tuesday: Rain likely with MVFR or lower conditions. E wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
A sca remains in effect for the cntrl and ern ocean today for 5 ft seas. Wind will otherwise be lgt, but pick up tngt on all waters as low pres develops. A sca for the protected waters and a gale watch for the ocean remain in effect for tngt. Winds were too mrgnl to convert the watch to a warning attm.
For Fri into Sat, solid sca cond expected. There is a chc for gales Fri and Fri ngt, but it is too mrgnl attm to go with a watch.
A light flow is expected Sunday through Monday as high pressure moves through the forecast waters and conditions remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters.
HYDROLOGY
Up to 1 inch if additional rainfall is expected for the eastern CWA No hydrologic impacts are expected with the additional rainfall.
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated into the middle of next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353.
Gale Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through late tonight for ANZ350-353-355.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 28 mi | 34 min | 9.7G | 45°F | 29.83 | |||
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 28 mi | 56 min | N 8G | 46°F | 44°F | 29.86 | ||
44022 - Execution Rocks | 29 mi | 44 min | NNE 7.8 | 46°F | 29.83 | 44°F | ||
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY | 38 mi | 56 min | 49°F | 45°F | 29.79 | |||
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 38 mi | 56 min | N 6G | 47°F | 45°F | 29.82 | ||
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ | 39 mi | 56 min | N 6G | 47°F | 46°F | 29.89 | ||
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ | 41 mi | 56 min | NNE 12G | 48°F | 29.86 | |||
MHRN6 | 46 mi | 56 min | N 8G | |||||
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 49 mi | 56 min | N 12G | 49°F | 43°F | 29.87 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KFRG REPUBLIC,NY | 9 sm | 50 min | N 09 | 3 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 48°F | 45°F | 87% | 29.83 |
KISP LONG ISLAND MAC ARTHUR,NY | 16 sm | 47 min | N 07 | 3 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 48°F | 48°F | 100% | 29.84 |
Tide / Current for Democrat Point, Fire Island Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Democrat Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 09:48 AM EDT 2.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:12 PM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:04 PM EDT 2.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:54 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 09:48 AM EDT 2.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:12 PM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:04 PM EDT 2.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:54 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Democrat Point, Fire Island Inlet, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
12 am |
2 |
1 am |
1.4 |
2 am |
0.8 |
3 am |
0.3 |
4 am |
0.1 |
5 am |
0.2 |
6 am |
0.7 |
7 am |
1.4 |
8 am |
2 |
9 am |
2.4 |
10 am |
2.4 |
11 am |
2.3 |
12 pm |
1.9 |
1 pm |
1.3 |
2 pm |
0.8 |
3 pm |
0.4 |
4 pm |
0.2 |
5 pm |
0.3 |
6 pm |
0.8 |
7 pm |
1.5 |
8 pm |
2.2 |
9 pm |
2.6 |
10 pm |
2.8 |
11 pm |
2.7 |
Amityville
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:33 AM EDT 1.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:46 AM EDT 0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:03 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 12:47 PM EDT 1.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:55 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:33 AM EDT 1.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:46 AM EDT 0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:03 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 12:47 PM EDT 1.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:55 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Amityville, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
12 am |
1.3 |
1 am |
1.3 |
2 am |
1.2 |
3 am |
1 |
4 am |
0.7 |
5 am |
0.4 |
6 am |
0.2 |
7 am |
0.1 |
8 am |
0 |
9 am |
0.2 |
10 am |
0.6 |
11 am |
0.9 |
12 pm |
1.1 |
1 pm |
1.1 |
2 pm |
1.1 |
3 pm |
0.9 |
4 pm |
0.7 |
5 pm |
0.4 |
6 pm |
0.2 |
7 pm |
0.1 |
8 pm |
0.1 |
9 pm |
0.3 |
10 pm |
0.6 |
11 pm |
1 |
Upton, NY,
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