Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 1:28 PM   Moonset 2:30 AM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 846 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening - .
Today - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Chance of rain. Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Fri - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 846 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure spins south of the area before slowly pulling away to the southeast this afternoon. Weak high pressure then builds in from the northeast Thursday night through Friday. High pressure may remain in place as another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure approach late weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 161245 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 845 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure spins south of the area before slowly pulling away to the southeast this afternoon. Weak high pressure then builds in from the northeast Thursday night through Friday. High pressure may remain in place as another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure approach late weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Forecast remains on track this morning. Areas of mainly light rain and drizzle will continue for much of the day. The steadiest rain persists across interior SE CT. Not anticipating anymore additional heavy rain with a trend towards lighter rain here by late morning/early afternoon.

As the low begins to pull southeast offshore during the afternoon, widespread rain should may become more showery in nature and gradually shift south while diminishing in intensity.
Winds will remain N/NE through much of the day at 10-20 mph with localized gusts up to 30 mph. Highs today will be in the low to middle 60s for much of the area, though some western areas may rise into the upper 60s, still 5-10 degrees below average.

The low pressure continues to make its progression back offshore to the southeast tonight, allowing any showers to move with it. Some low level moisture may allow for some pockets of drizzle or a stray shower, especially along the coast but largely the area will remain dry tonight. High pressure noses in from the northeast. Lows will be in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure slides into the area from the north and northeast in response to developing shortwave ridging over the area, as the low pushes further offshore. This will result in generally dry conditions on Friday with temperatures climbing back up to seasonable values, despite partly to mostly cloudy skies.

The next system approaches from the west into Friday night and early Saturday, bringing with it a low chance for showers approaching from the west into early Saturday morning. Most global models show the frontal system slowly weakening as it approaches the area with high pressure fighting to remain overhead. A more robust low pressure system looks to develop well to the southeast and push offshore Saturday into Saturday night. Though there will remain a low chance of showers for western areas, the trend in models to suppress the system to the south has allowed for a drier forecast to take hold. Despite the main energy shifting south, high pressure will allow for a persistent NE/E wind over the area, keeping the region cooler than average through the weekend under mostly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
*Key Points*

*A drier trend in the pattern for the weekend.

*Below normal temperatures to start the period with a gradual warm up to near or slightly above normal by mid next week.

By Monday into Tuesday, model divergence continues as the more progressive EC takes the low to the northeast and out of the region while the GFS maintains a more cutoff solution and meanders the surface low off the NC coast. Weak ridging builds in thereafter, with a shortwave and low pressure system approaching from the west late Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure just south of Long Island this morning will begin to track slowly south and weaken through tonight, while high pressure builds in from the north.

Mainly light rain and/or drizzle is expected this morning, then dissipating in coverage this afternoon. KSWF will be mainly dry, but could see spotty light rain/drizzle. Looking for a persistence forecast the next 18-24h with ceilings mainly MVFR for NYC and the Lower Hudson Valley, and IFR/MVFR for the eastern terminals.

N-NE winds early this morning will be strongest with G25-30kt along the coast and 20-25kt elsewhere. Winds will be slow to diminish through the day.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Ceilings may vary between IFR and low end MVFR this morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Sunday and Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Low pressure south of the area will allow SCA conditions to persist for all waters today with gusts upwards of 30 kt and seas on the ocean 7-10 feet. Gusts taper off tonight but seas remain elevated on the ocean above SCA thresholds through much of the day on Friday.

Sub SCA conditions are likely thereafter into Monday.

HYDROLOGY
There are no additional hydrologic concerns for the rest of today through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

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Democrat Point
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Thu -- 02:18 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:17 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:07 PM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:32 PM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Democrat Point, Fire Island Inlet, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Amityville
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Thu -- 12:02 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:17 AM EDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:49 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:06 PM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Amityville, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

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